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标题: [基础分析] A gold and gold mine stock discussion [打印本页]

作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-12 00:00 标题: A gold and gold mine stock discussion

The Fallacy Of Owning Gold Mining Equities
November 21, 2012 Brennan Basnicki
Ample research supports the notion that the addition of gold and other commodities to one's portfolio produces a higher efficient frontier -- or more plainly stated, a higher expected return with lower risk. Unfortunately, many portfolios have been constructed to include commodity exposure through the inclusion of commodity-related equities, especially with gold. While this approach may have worked at lower gold prices, it has failed since early 2011, when gold traded above $1400. Not only has this approach failed, but gold miners have been one of the poorest performing sectors. The failure of this approach of portfolio optimization is most easily seen through the following charts:

The first chart shows how poorly gold miners (GDX) and junior gold miners (GDXJ) have performed compared to gold (GLD). Note that while gold is up over 25%, junior gold miners are down 45%:
The idea that one can gain exposure to gold through mining companies clearly has not held. A look at the correlation between the miners and gold shows the failure of this historic relationship. The below chart shows the correlation over the last 20, 50, and 100 weeks between gold and gold miners. Note that while although the correlation remains high over the shortest (20 week) period, over the long term (100 weeks), the correlation has trended to zero:
The case is even worse for the junior gold miners ETF. The correlation moved into negative territory:

Why has this relationship changed? I don't have the answer to that, but one potential source of the discrepancy is that as gold reached historical highs at the end of 2010, mining companies may have increased hedging activities. This would obviously limit their ability to participate in any gold appreciation above that level ($1400).
The eccentric hedge fun manager Hugh Hendry makes a different argument for further weakness in gold mining stocks, having stated that:
"There is no rationale for owning gold mining equities. It is as close as you get to insanity. The risk premium goes up when the gold price goes up. Societies are more envious of your gold at $3000 than at $300. And there is no valuation argument that protects you against the risk of confiscation."
Basically, the more expensive gold is, the higher the probability that gold mines will be nationalized. This leads to a higher risk premium required for gold miners and accordingly, a lower stock price when completing any sort of fundamental valuation.
The paradox is that if nationalization continues, the market ends up with less supply: a public government will not be nearly as efficient as a private company. Less supply means higher prices and accordingly, a higher probability of further nationalization. And while nationalization may only be possible in developing countries, higher tax rates or government royalties are equally likely in developed countries. Recent examples of such actions include the ongoing dispute over Kyrgyzstan's gold and Venezuela's move to nationalize gold just over a year ago.
While I'm sure there may be evidence to counter this argument, the failure of miners to participate in gold's appreciation above $1400 does support this. I am not an expert in gold, however, I have spent significant time studying technical analysis. One thing you learn early in technical analysis -- and probably one of the most important rules is that "the trend is your friend" -- simply implying that you always want to position yourself alongside the trend. Well, the trend has been towards less and less correlation and underperformance for gold miners. Hendry himself is long gold and short gold miners. Until new evidence is available of a change in this relationship, it is likely that the current trend will persist.
To return to portfolio management, it should be clear at this point that the addition of gold-related equities does not raise the efficient frontier (higher return with lower risk). One should look at allocating a portion of their portfolio to outright gold exposure, either in the form of a gold ETF such as GLD, or even physical ownership.
It looks like Goldmember had it right in the 2002 "Austin Powers" movie, when he rather enthusiastically stated, "I love Goldddd." Interestingly enough, gold was under $300/ounce back then, and 2002 marked the breakout of the 10-year secular bull trend gold remains in today.

作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-12 00:01

本帖最后由 wsjboy 于 2012-12-12 00:25 编辑

The above article is toally against owning gold miner stocks. Here is a chart which support his opinions made by myself, since it is clearer than his.

3 year weekly chart

图片附件: gdx.jpg (2012-12-12 00:01, 53.56 KB) / 下载次数 31
http://status.yayabay.com/forum/attachment.php?aid=653243&k=6610d62c146f769823d88291eb0f6dd4&t=1733135723&sid=U82F2H

作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-12 00:02

Here are some opinions disagree with him:

Morrison International Acco... Comments (135)

I think its just my view of economics, let me explain quickly.

From a supply and demand view, gold is basically the highest demanded by far and the supply is melting, literally, all of the jewelry, teeth, spoons and such into gold and that has held the price low I believe. As it increases it meets a multiple of resistance. I am trying to say that basically if it goes up 10% it will have a much larger correction force (the bringing of more supply I guess) from traders ringing the register and if it went to 11% it would increase even more than the 9%-10% move. But once the gold starts getting hoarded, and it will, the supply multiple will decrease and decrease. The rising of the price causes panic and people buy gold, the last of the un-serious investors ring out and gold will be owned by foreign central banks, financial institutions, the IMF, hedge funds, mutual funds, federal governments, smart state treasuries, large dollar jewelry makers will face a liquidity trap, as banks will freeze lines of credit and those without cash to buy enough to keep their operations at break even through the high price period fall apart. This is just a small theory of mine after watching all the we buy gold people.

Now that is simply one part, part 2 is simply inflation. Gold is very correlated with inflation and the fear of inflation. If either go up than gold takes off. Let the CPI report the actual inflation rate (I think its been about 4% yoy past 4 years) and watch gold take off from 1700 to 2000 overnight. The five largest currencies in the world have basically said they will devalue their currency before you can devalue yours. If one guy wants to devalue his currency it disrupts the valuation of its pairs. America was fast and put a ton of money out there. Now the others are trying to catch up. The fed wants this money to slowly seep back into the real economy from banks balance sheets into growth & acquisition, start up, auto and capital goods loans. These loans have higher risk and that's something banks cannot take with BASEL 3 making all but Wells Fargo worried.

part 3 is about political craziness. I wrote a good comment on that earlier. Please go to my profile and look on my comments for that if you would like.

Thanks, Mike.

作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-12 00:03

本帖最后由 wsjboy 于 2012-12-12 00:25 编辑

A daily chart of GDX, with GFI/ABX on the chart, GFI/ABX are obviously beat harder than GDX

1 year daily chart

图片附件: gdx_daily.jpg (2012-12-12 00:03, 49.65 KB) / 下载次数 31
http://status.yayabay.com/forum/attachment.php?aid=653244&k=6fd07ca51d34486195d780e0eda406d3&t=1733135723&sid=U82F2H

作者: swing2 时间: 2012-12-12 00:15

撇开时间，这样的分析几乎没有什么意义。金矿可能30年涨了几十倍，黄金只涨了几倍，如此说来，金矿更好，可是没有人持有30年，所以也没有什么意义。
Paulson拥有太多金矿股。自从上次危机他大赚华尔街，之后他做什么股几乎都被华尔街拆台。比如bac, bsx.

作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-12 00:20

　　格罗指出，极端宽松的货币政策和央行购买黄金的两大趋势当然会推高金价。

　　“我认为，明年我们很可能会看到2000美元关口被突破，黄金牛市要真正终结，恐怕要涨到2400美元才行。”他说，1980年代的高点接近800美元，而综合通货膨胀因素调整之后，大约就是2400美元。

　　格罗的基金持有一些黄金，但大部分资金是投入黄金矿业类股。他强调：“投资者应该通过一系列不同的渠道(投资黄金)。”

　　黄金矿业类股的表现一直落后黄金本身，黄金投资的普及，尤其是最大的黄金ETF之一SPDR Gold Trust“已经使得人人可以持有黄金”，这样就削弱了矿业公司股票在散户和机构投资者眼中的魅力。

　　黄金矿业公司的问题在于运营和资本成本居高不下，缺乏劳动力，以及当地政府往往想要分一杯羹等。

作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-12 00:21

美股評論：黃金光澤是否已經暗淡
2012-12-10 22:16:02

導讀：MarketWatch專欄作家高德(Howard Gold)認為，黃金牛市很可能已經進入倒計時了，但是今年歐洲和美國的寬鬆政策又讓局面增加了額外的變數。

以下即高德的評論文章全文：

在上周的大規模拋售發生之前，黃金原本一直是在悶聲大發財來的。

這種黃色金屬每盎司的價格從7月的1560美元一直漲到10月的1800美元，直到大拋售發生前的一周，還有1750美元。

可是，一波賣壓之後，金價現在只有1700美元左右了。

整體而言，在超過一年多的時間當中，黃金的表現並不怎麼樣。2011年9月，金價達到了近1900美元的頂部，而從那之後，2000美元就變成了可望不可即。到了5月，金價跌到了1540美元。不過，如果從今年年初算起，金價還有8%左右的漲幅，只是接下來還會發生什麼呢？這漲幅實在是脆弱。

可是，與此同時，許多投資者現在依然憎恨的股票，其表現卻比黃金好得太多。2011年9月22日至今，標准普爾500指數上漲了25%，而SPDR Gold Shares ETF(GLD)卻下跌了3%。

那麼，黃金的下一步會走向那裡？

今年3月的時候，我曾經寫過一篇專欄文章，描述過黃金在未來某一天不再閃光的情景：

“如果這樣的趨勢延續下去，或許就意味著全國經濟緩慢復甦，逐漸去杠桿化，真實世界當中的通貨膨脹是非常溫和的──還有美元也日益強勢。總而言之，這一切是指向股票價格上漲和黃金的持續疲軟。”

不過從那時到現在，已經發生了一些重大的變化。9月6日，歐洲央行總裁德拉吉表示，歐央行可能會開始無限制地購買一年至三年期的歐元區國家國債。這一計劃是為了支持那些脆弱的外圍國家，比如西班牙和意大利。

之後的一周(實在是太巧合了！)，聯儲主席伯南克又宣布，美國將開始他們自己的開放債券採購計劃，即所謂QE3。聯儲保証會每個月多收購400億美元抵押債券，直至他們確定“勞動力市場的情況持續改善”。

這也就意味著，聯儲每年將投入近5000億美元，具體結束時間不詳，而且他們如果要提升短期利率，最早也是2014年的事情。這些額外的資金都將流向銀行儲備，而且在此之前，他們已經投放了2萬億美元。

一旦經濟復甦，這些額外的儲備開始在整個系統當中流動起來，就將出現巨大的問題了。

可是，看上去，這問題至少也是幾年之後的事情。黃金的十年牛市其實正是因為人們預計到了未來的問題才會出現，人們購買黃金，就是為了保護自己免於通貨膨脹噩夢的驚嚇。

Tocqueville Gold Fund(TGLDX)聯席經理人之一格羅(Doug Groh)評論道：“世界各國的貨幣政策正在催促投資者尋找他們當前持有貨幣的替代品。”

“發達國家正在貶值自己的貨幣。”他補充說，“而新興市場國家則在買進黃金。”

到2012年年底，各國央行所採購的黃金總量預計將打破去年創下的457噸的歷史紀錄，而買進規模最顯眼的主要是俄羅斯、印度和土耳其等新興市場國家。

巴西最近也參加了這一派對，推出了自己2001年以來最大規模的黃金採購行動。

格羅指出，極端寬鬆的貨幣政策和央行購買黃金的兩大趨勢當然會推高金價。

“我認為，明年我們很可能會看到2000美元關口被突破，黃金牛市要真正終結，恐怕要漲到2400美元才行。”他說，1980年代的高點接近800美元，而綜合通貨膨脹因素調整之後，大約就是2400美元。

格羅的基金持有一些黃金，但大部分資金是投入黃金礦業類股。他強調：“投資者應該通過一系列不同的渠道(投資黃金)。”

黃金礦業類股的表現一直落後黃金本身，黃金投資的普及，尤其是最大的黃金ETF之一SPDR Gold Trust“已經使得人人可以持有黃金”，這樣就削弱了礦業公司股票在散戶和機構投資者眼中的魅力。

黃金礦業公司的問題在於運營和資本成本居高不下，缺乏勞動力，以及當地政府往往想要分一杯羹等。

不過，費城證券交易所黃金白銀指數目前的點位較之黃金價格低10%，較之平均水平也低13%到14%。格羅強調：“當這樣的點位出現，確實是意味著價值型投資的機會。”

當然，這一說法的前提是，你認為金價還會上漲，而這一點現在其實大可商榷。

單單就相對強弱情況說來，黃金在這個一般而言是最強勢的季節當中的表現並不讓人樂觀。可是，所謂財政懸崖問題若真的能夠成功解決，則又會讓所有風險資產水漲船高。

因此，我現在是持有一小部分黃金(我總投資的5%)，等待觀察拋售的後續發展。如果黃金價格穩定在1600美元至1650美元左右的水平，我或許會多買一點，但也就是一點而已。長達十年的黃金牛市，其結束很可能已經開始倒計時了，不過我也不介意多買一點廉價的保險，萬一游戲還能進行得再久一點呢？(子衿)

作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-12 00:23

哈哈，给置顶了，加点分吧

作者: aFei 时间: 2012-12-12 19:41

作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-17 22:39

Thanks moderator!!!

作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-17 22:41

为何黄金涨不起来? 朝鲜卖黄金造卫星?
送交者: 道友 2012年12月14日17:31:16

Mystery Hit and Run Asian Gold Seller Strikes Again, Large Speculative Positions in Silver Rise, Morgan Stanley Names Gold and Silver As Top 2013 Commodities Picks, Safe Haven Buying in Silver Re-Emerges.

Mystery Hit and Run Asian Gold Seller Strikes AgainSilver suffered another setback the week that ended Friday, December 7th. The good news for silver investors is that in this second consecutive weekly drop, it only declined about one percent over the previous week’s final price to close last Friday at $33.09.

Silver once again became a hostage to gold this week as the mystery seller from the prior week returned with a vengeance. Besides this hit and run incident that seriously impacted the white metal, silver saw bullish fundamental factors help it to recover by the end of the week. Large speculative positions in silver rose, Morgan Stanley came out with a bullish prognosis for silver, and safe haven buying in silver re-emerged by the end of the week.
Mystery Hit and Run Asian Gold Seller Strikes Again

Spot market silver started the week at $33.74, up about a percent over Friday, November 30th’s close. In Tuesday in the early morning Asian trade session, another sinister hit and run spot metal selling incident occurred in gold markets, as had in the week prior.

While there was very little liquidity and volume in the time when both London and New York spot markets were closed, an Asian seller suddenly appeared and executed heavy sell orders in the yellow metal.

Gold plunged below $1,700 an ounce on the drive by shooting, and silver followed suit as it dropped like a rock below $33 per ounce. The white metal then spent the rest of the week reacting to more positive, bullish sentiment while it gradually worked its way back up to a respectable level by Friday.
Large Speculative Positions in Silver Rise

The latest Commodities and Futures Trading Commission report that came out Friday, November 30th demonstrated that the large speculators had been busy increasing their long positions in not only silver, but also in all of the precious metals complex.

This rise in silver positioning had been demonstrated when silver had jumped to $34.07 as of November 27th. Needless to say, the increased confidence in silver bolstered prices and helped to cushion the blow of the drive by shooting selling in gold early in the week.
Morgan Stanley Names Gold and Silver As Top 2013 Commodities Picks

Silver also received another strong vote of confidence from one of the biggest names in the investment banking business this past week. Morgan Stanley ranked gold and silver as their preferred commodity investments for the coming new year. They anticipate that silver prices will rise dramatically enough to average $35 per ounce for 2013.

As a further compliment to the white metal, Morgan Stanley declared that silver remains a cheap substitute for gold. They expect silver will outperform its big bother gold in the year 2013. This is not only bullish news for silver now, but also on a going forward basis, as the white metal continues to collect impressive endorsements about its price direction and action next year.
Safe Haven Buying in Silver Re-Emerges

What week would be complete without some seesaw rhetoric out of Washington D.C. about the looming fiscal cliff along with discussions about the still ongoing sovereign debt crisis out of Europe? The European Central Bank slashed their forecast for economic growth in the EU from stagnant to a slight decline at their monthly meeting this past week.

This provided new safe haven demand in both gold and silver as the Euro tanked, and it also helped to flush out some of the short sellers in silver too. Announcements that still no progress has been reached in the fiscal cliff saga in Washington also helped bolster silver prices to end the week back over $33 per ounce.
Take Away On Silver Market Prices

While silver has led gold in advances much of the year, the white metal can still be taken hostage by severe gold price drops. This is exactly what happened for the week that ended December 7th. Most of the fundamental news for silver proved bullish this week, but the drive by shooting sell-off in gold early Tuesday morning simply did too much damage for silver to recover to its previous highs of the week.

The good news for those who are long silver is that the precious metal held its $32.50 major support line that it needs to stay above in order to continue its recent bullish recovery. Major resistance currently lies lurking at $34.49. Silver will have to smash through this convincingly to break out of its recent $32.50 to $34.50 range.

作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-17 22:58

The Gold/Silver Stock List
ABX ACII AEM AGLV AIVN AMNL AU BPWRF BVN CLBN CDE CGCO CNYC COGC CTTG CYUR DSRM ETCK FCX GBGD GBG GFI GLD GOLD GPXM GRMC GRZ GSS HL HMY IAG IAU ITRP KGC KRY KWBT LBSR LFBG LFVN LODE MGN MMG MNEAF MYNG NEM NJMC PAAS QBC RGLD RIC RKTE SONT SSRI SVYR THMG TNSX TRDM TRE USCS USEG VGZ WITM

作者: Nage 时间: 2012-12-18 01:11

like this kind of serious discussion !

作者: Nage 时间: 2012-12-18 01:13

want give you some money, but I do not know how

so money saved for me

作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-25 19:57

为何投资者购买的实物白银是黄金的50倍？

Eric Sprott 是加拿大上市公司Sprott资产管理公司的创始人、首席执行官和投资经理，有超过40年的投资经验，被认为是加拿大最优秀的投资经理人之一。加拿大是世界资源类投资最集中的市场，他的公司在过去几年推出的实物黄金（PHYS）和白银信托（PSLV）产品都在美国和加拿大市场上取得了巨大成功。Sprott 本人也成为白银投资最著名的支持者之一，认为白银是未来十年最好的投资。

接下来，让我们看看白银多头 Sprott 的说法：

为何（精明的）投资者购买的实物白银是黄金的50倍？

作为贵金属投资的长期学徒，我们对某些特定的规则非常了解。其中之一就是，从历史上看，白银对黄金的可得率（availability ratio）对两种金属的价格有着直接影响。当前投资用实物白银对黄金的可得率大约在3:1。那么，为何投资者投资白银的比率要比这高的多呢？这些“精明的”投资者理解了什么呢？让我们看看相关的数据再决定是否要追随“资金的脚步”。

黄金的平均年产量大约8000万盎司，加上年均估计约5000万盎司的回收黄金量，合计每年的可以购买的黄金大约1.3亿盎司。相比之下，白银的年均产量大约在7.5亿盎司，回收白银的量估计在2.5亿盎司/年，加起来大约10亿盎司。通过这组数据，我们可以看到，可以购买的白银数量大约是黄金的8倍。然而，由于这两种金属的工业用途，并非所有的黄金和白银都被用于投资。据估计，用于投资目的（珠宝、金/银条和金/银币）的黄金每年大约在1.2亿盎司，而白银则为3.5亿盎司。因此，实物白银对黄金的可得率大约是350/120，约为3/1。(1)

现在，让我们来看看投资者是如何在黄金和白银之间分配资金的。下表的数据来自于美国铸币局（US Mint），单位为盎司：

正如上表所示，投资者们投入白银的资金相对于黄金的比例远高于可得率，且这一上升趋势并未出现任何放缓迹象。

我们也可以通过Sprott旗下的实物黄金和实物白银信托的近期发行数据来看一下。Sprott最近一次发行的实物黄金信托在2012年9月份，筹资3.93亿美元；最近一次发行的实物白银信托筹资3.1亿美元。考虑到发行信托时两种金属的价格，我们可以购买2.13万盎司的黄金和910万盎司的白银。两者之间的比例达到43:1。

如果我们再看看黄金和白银ETF，我们注意到在2007-2012年期间，白银持仓的数量增加值1.2万吨，而黄金则增加值1200吨，这意味着，投资者们购买的白银十倍于黄金。

除了以上的三个事实性数据以外，还有其他的信息显示出白银投资需求背离了可得率。当我们对金/银条贸易商做调研时，最喜欢问的问题是他们以美元计价的黄金销售额与白银销售额的比例。答案是两者基本一致，这意味着实物白银的销售量与黄金的比例超过50:1。

Mineweb 上最近的一个新闻的标题是“在印度，白银销售超过了黄金（2）”，这篇报道援引一位贸易商的话表示“最近投资者和珠宝玩家偏爱白银珠宝。”作为全球最大的黄金进口国，印度不太可能购买与黄金等量的白银，因为这意味着要购买超过10亿盎司，这超过了当前的年均产量。

尽管上述最后两个对白银需求的描述只是传闻，但来自美国铸币局、ETF 和实物信托的数据是可靠的。

就目前来看，白银价格基本上是由纸白银市场决定的，COMEX的日均交易量大约在3亿盎司。相比于日均2百万盎司的白银产量，这一数字是惊人的。正如CFTC委员Bart Chilton在2010年10月26日所说的，“我相信白银市场的价格受到某些影响。白银的价格被操纵。就我所知和在公开文件中所见到的，我相信在白银市场存在违反商品交易方案的行为发生，而任何此类违法行为都应被起诉（3）。”

让我们回到此前“追随资金的脚步”的说法。我们认为，投资者将等额的资金投入白银和黄金几乎是不可想象的，但数据确实就是如此显示的。

白银投资的市场非常小。全球黄金的美元价值接近9万亿美元，而以珠宝、银币、银条和银饰形式存在的白银价值预计约1500亿美元（50亿盎司，每盎司30美元）。这一比例达到60:1（4）。

当两种金属的投资可得率只有3:1时，投资者以当前速度购买白银的持续时间能有多久呢？我们对于银价对金价的比率仍然维持在如此低水平感到惊讶。从历史上看，当两种金属都作为货币使用时，黄金与白银的价格比为16:1。如今，这一比率为55:1，那么这一数据告诉我们什么呢？我们相信追随资金的脚步是正确的。

P.S.美国铸币局的银鹰币（Silver Eagle Bullion Coins）脱销了，直到2013年1月7日。

美国铸币局近日通知授权买家，所有2012期的银鹰币剩余库存都已出售。由于2013期的银币要到2013年1月7日才能预定，这意味着铸币局最受欢迎的币种将出现3周的断档。

注释:
（1）黄金数据来自WGC，白银数据来自Silver Institute；
（2）来源：Mineweb.com
（3）来源：彭博
（4）黄金数据来自于WGC，黄金数据来自USGS和Silver Institute。

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作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-25 19:58

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作者: wsjboy 时间: 2012-12-27 23:46

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