华人论坛 - Powered by Discuz! Board

标题: [讨论] Shall bears surrender now? [打印本页]

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-2 22:09 标题: Shall bears surrender now?

please give your reasons why not?

作者: lovefreedom 时间: 2014-5-2 23:12

不投降就地被挤死

作者: 小昭mm 时间: 2014-5-3 13:05

因为希望总留给明天

please give your reasons why not?
oldhorse 发表于 2014-5-2 22:09

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-3 20:46

to answer this question, more questions be thrown out first.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-3 20:50

本帖最后由 oldhorse 于 2014-5-3 21:09 编辑

does Nasdaq really lag sp500?
from one year chart,no;
6 months, yes.

is nasdaq truly indicative of the market?
se chart yourself, the answer is no.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-3 20:51

本帖最后由 oldhorse 于 2014-5-3 21:05 编辑

what about RUT?
does it tell us anything we don't know?

although rut is lagging now, it did catch-up a few times before, it may very well do it all over again.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-3 21:04

本帖最后由 oldhorse 于 2014-5-3 21:19 编辑

and any technical indicators showiing where the market is marching?
MACD is still in a bullish trend;
RSI appears a bit higher than neutral.
however, BB is narrowing which tells widening is gonna happen sooner or later, we just don't know which direction yet while the middle line is saying up.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-3 21:07

Has money flown into safe heaven stock?
yes

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-3 21:11

本帖最后由 oldhorse 于 2014-5-3 21:25 编辑

has the market abandoned growths stocks?
yes.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-3 21:13

is vix close to 52 weeks low?
yes., soon we will get that point.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-3 21:23

本帖最后由 oldhorse 于 2014-5-3 21:26 编辑

how about the problem child, ukrine?

very short term, it will drive vix up, but that's as much as it can do.
having a war is good news for stock market.
the more problems in the world, the better usa.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-4 14:48

TLT shows divergence indeed.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-4 14:55

1)now， I think the market is going sideways with ultimately bullish trend, i.e. would be higher until we have recession, which was said by the guy on MW.
10% correction is mission impossible in near future.

2)hold my short position and get out of it whenever having a chance.

3)play long or short on individual stocks and forget about the market trend.

作者: 黄金奇异果 时间: 2014-5-4 15:02

回复 13# oldhorse

The ultimate goal is SPX 2000?

作者: 读书2014 时间: 2014-5-4 15:05

回复 12# oldhorse

I got excited this weekend that my bond holding generated a relatively biggest YTD return than others sectors in my small portfolio. My previous similar agitation usually marked a topping sign according to pure experience.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-4 15:12

回复 oldhorse

The ultimate goal is SPX 2000?
黄金奇异果发表于 2014-5-4 15:02

the guy on MW said spx is going to 2300 before going down, I think it is possible.
if we were not to hit recession, I think even 3000 is nothing.
this mad cow is just unstoppable.

I wish I would be wrong as I have short position, hehe.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-4 15:14

回复 oldhorse

I got excited this weekend that my bond holding generated a relatively biggest YT ...
读书2014 发表于 2014-5-4 15:05

topping pattern has occurred many times now and then, but it doesn't matter.
mad cows could run as long as they want.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-4 15:21

we have to look at things objectively;
trading is gambling, remember?

trading has nothing to do with investing which is logical, while trading has absolutely no logic inherently.

trading is driven by emotion and demand;
the emotion in mad cows is pretty crazy and the demand for US safe heaven gambling is high too.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-4 15:31

本帖最后由 oldhorse 于 2014-5-4 15:32 编辑

I think it is better to re-enter the market than be a bystander.
it is premature to crash the market.1800 has to be broken first which is a long way to go.

we have quite a lot time before 1800, i.e. we have our chance to exit on the way down to 1800 if that were to happen.

being in the market, you have the chance.

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-4 15:50

what I realized at weekend is that the most important is as always keeping mind open and don't be as stubborn as a mule.
brace the market and accept what it is.

作者: jiahui 时间: 2014-5-4 19:56

回复 20# oldhorse

I bot a lot of TQQQ last Friday. Hopefully it was a smart move:))

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-4 20:35

回复 21# jiahui

够猛的，好梦成真！

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-5 22:05

1900不可阻挡了。

好坏消息都涨，这是疯牛市的典型特征。
做牛市。

作者: aimei 时间: 2014-5-5 22:37

回复 21# jiahui

嘎猛

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-8 08:59

1900不可阻挡了。

好坏消息都涨，这是疯牛市的典型特征。
做牛市。
oldhorse 发表于 2014-5-5 22:05

彻底投降，牛市不可阻挡。

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-8 09:06

彻底投降，牛市不可阻挡。
oldhorse 发表于 2014-5-8 08:59

必须客观地看疯狂的世界。
炒股不是做人，炒股的目的是赚钱，只要能赚，管它是不是疯了。
现在看2300点都不会崩。

作者: shi333 时间: 2014-5-8 10:20

太牛了，早盘低开不少，如何看出来的？好坏消息都涨，可是早盘那一会各股都在掉啊？

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-8 22:01

谈不上，就是客观地用ta说话，加上数据，sector performance。

作者: oldhorse 时间: 2014-5-8 22:03

熊们犯的一个错误，比如我，就是死脑筋，认定sp500跌才是correction，昨天我在另外一个铁里说了，其实rut和那指已经完成correction了，sp500不一定要correction了。

所谓菊花年年有，岁岁各不同，要有动态的思维，没有放之四海而皆准的pattern。

作者: 读书2014 时间: 2014-5-8 22:18

回复 29# oldhorse
求马大大别再唱多了，我做多RUT到今天已经潘尼珂了。