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标题: [转贴] Market blog [打印本页]
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-11 15:01     标题: Market blog

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May 11, 2014

Equities started off last week relatively strong after an improvement in the ISM non-manufacturing index and PMI services index but were mostly down this past week. Somewhat off-setting was a weak reading on China's manufacturing sector. Equities were mixed at mid-week with techs being moderately on the downside. Markets reacted favorably to Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress which indicated continued loose monetary policy. Stocks were mostly down Thursday even as initial jobless claims fell sharply. Losses were led by the energy and utility sectors. Yellen gave a second day of testimony but with little additional comments on policy. On Friday, on little news, equities were little changed on low volume but generally up slightly. According to analysts some investors have started expressing concern that economic growth may not be strong enough to support stocks near record highs. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell a minimal 0.1% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) outperformed by rising 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) fell 1.3% and the small caps (RUT) led the downside off 1.9%. The divergence between small caps and tech vs. the Blue chips will eventually sort itself out but right now they are moving in opposite directions.



Option Volatility reacted much like stocks which was flat for the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) sits just below $13 as fear to the downside is low. Developments in Ukraine eased this past week on comments from Russia and option protection prices are reflecting the low risk.  Markets got what they wanted from Fed Chair Janet Yellen's Congressional testimony this past week—continued loose monetary policy and stocks are trading in a tight range. Hopefully the correction territory that small caps are in will spark some additional volatility this week.



Treasury yields this past week were down moderately on the short end. However, the 30-year bond rate rose notably. Yields were little changed but down marginally Tuesday ahead Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress. Violence in Ukraine also put downward pressure on rates. At mid-week, short rates eased slightly after Yellen indicated in Congressional testimony that a high degree of accommodation is still warranted. Also weighing on note yields were comments from the European Central Bank that it may cut rates next month if inflation remains low. The 30-year bond appears to be drifting upward as taper has become more certain. It is the long end that is most affected by reduction of Fed purchases of bonds.



Earnings season is winding down and it has so far been a decent quarter for corporations. The reatial sector will be in the spotlight as reports are due from Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS) and Wal-Mart (WMT). This week will also let us know if the spring is still providing improved economic data. Two of the biggest reports this week may help answer whether Q2 is picking up. Retail sales jumped in March and there may still be some "catch up" activity in April. Housing has shown little rebound in activity. The earlier report this week is the Housing Market Index which will give an important reading on buyer traffic. The following day, the housing starts report may show a pickup in momentum after employment picked up. Inflation data will also be in focus as reports on PPI and CPI are due.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  AMBC, ARNA, CVG, GFN, GOGO, MBI, MCK, RAX



Tuesday: DRD, TTWO, VTNR



Wednesday: A, CSCO, DE, M, PLUG, RMAX, VLP



Thursday:  AAP, ADSK, AMAT, CA, DDS, JCP, JWN, KSS, SINA, WMT



Friday: SJM



Economic Releases (5/12-5/16):

Monday:

11:00 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Import & Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

9:00 am CT – Housing Marker Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

                    

Thursday:

Fed’s Yellen Speaks

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

7:30 am CT– Fed’s Dudley Speaks

8:00 am CT– Treasury Intl. Capital

8:15 am CT– Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

10:50 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-5-11 19:09

Thanks
ARNA er on Monday AH
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-12 08:41

5/12/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are higher despite pro-Russian separatists' claim of victory in votes on self-rule by provinces in east Ukraine. Russian officials cheered the results and U.S. officials condemned them. Investors focus today will be on earnings reports this week, as well as a monthly budget statement that will be released this afternoon. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) continues to languish at low levels below $13 as fear to the downside is low. There are plenty of headwinds which should be in the back of investors minds. War in Ukraine, the Chinese economy and deflation in Europe are just a few of the examples that could roil markets in the near-term.



Treasuries are slightly lower as stocks push higher.  The 10-year yield is near 2.63% and remains in a tight range under 2.8%. Global equities are largely higher despite pro-Russian separatists declaring a resounding victory in a "self-rule" referendum for Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. China's Shanghai Composite index jumped 2.1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 1.8% after Beijing outlined a broad range of capital-market reforms on Friday. These include a more investor-driven system for IPOs and easier access for foreign capital. European stocks were also rising, shaking off the latest developments in Ukraine. The recent small-cap decline in the U.S. has many predicting that M&A activity will continue to pick up while others believe it is forecasting a drop in the overall market.



Stock Stories:

Allergan (AGN) – Rejected –The company rejected Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) unsolicited offer.  They stating that it significantly undervalues the company, creates significant risks and uncertainties for shareholders and is not in the best interests of the company and shareholders.



Major Economic Reports:

11:00 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget



Notable Earnings:   

Monday 5/12:

Before Market:   BPI, GOG, HNR, NIHD, ZINC

After Market:   AMBC, ARNA, CVG, MBI, MCK, RAX, RDEN, VGR



Tuesday – 5/13:

Before Market:  DRD, FHN, PFIN, VTNR

After Market:  TTWO, YUME
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-13 08:29

5/13/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open. The Dow (DIA) and S&P 500 (SPX) closed at new all-time highs, and investors are hoping the market can extend its gains. Earnings season is winding down, and little economic data has been reported recently. Today investors will examine advance retail sales figures which are due out at 7:30 am CT and are expected to show continued growth from the lackluster winter. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) hit below $12 yesterday at one point and continues to weaken. Option premium is getting extremely low and protection in the markets is cheap.  With all-time highs for equities and investor confidence rising, we may see a continued grind higher for stocks in the near-term. Small cap stocks (IWM) out-paced the overall market yesterday as increased M&A activity and an over-sold condition provided the power to push them up by 2.2%.



Global equities mostly rise following Wall Street's strong performance yesterday as investors focus on the improving U.S. economy rather than the tensions in Ukraine and more weak economic data out of China. Despite the rise, Germany’s investor confidence survey fell and sentiment for the Euro-zone missed estimates to the downside. Indian shares continue to party on the healthy probability that the Bharatiya Janata Party has won the country's general election. Treasuries are flat to slightly higher as stocks pushed to all-time highs.  Bonds rebounded overnight in conjunction with gains in European debt markets amid a report that Germany’s Bundesbank is willing to endorse new ECB stimulus measures. Earnings today are light so investors will focus on economic data today.  April trade prices are due, along with March business inventories and weekly chain store sales. The Fed's Lockhart spoke overnight and noted some exit tools and strategies for the U.S.



Stock Stories:

Pfizer (PFE) – Courted –In an effort to begin trying to convince British lawmakers about how he feels his company's bid for AstraZeneca (AZN) is good for the U.K. economy, Pfizer (PFE) CEO Ian Read is appearing before the Business, Innovation and Skills Committee. Pfizer is aiming to sweeten the $101.9B offer for AstraZeneca for a second time and will most likely wait until after the hearings to up the offer. This questioning often leads to a less likely takeover as Parliament hammers the CEO’s about workings of the deal.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – Down 0.1% for the week

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Import & Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday 5/13:

Before Market:   DRD, FHN, PFIN, VTNR

After Market:   TTWO, YUME



Wednesday – 5/14:

Before Market:  DE, M, PLUG, SODA, VLP

After Market:  A, CSCO, JACK, RMAX
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-14 10:34

5/14/2014

***Sorry for the delay as there were technical issues this morning***

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower ahead of the release of producer prices (PPI) data for April. Analysts are predicting that prices increased 0.2% overall, while the core reading which removes food and energy is expected to show an increase of 0.2% as well. Little additional economic data is slated to be released except for the weekly Department of Energy inventory numbers and Housing information which are due out after the market opens. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) should firm up today if stocks remain in negative territory.  The S&P 500 (SPX) hit above $1900 for the first time yesterday but quickly fell from the all-time high levels. Despite this, small caps (IWM) once again diverged and fell almost 1% in Tuesday’s session.



Yields skidded lower in tandem with those of European bonds after ECB's Praet reiterated in more specific terms that a package of monetary measures is being prepared ahead of the June meeting. U.S. Bonds continue to strengthen even as stocks hit record highs. Equities are mildly lower in Europe and Asia was down slightly. The MBA reported a 3.6% rise in the market index this morning, with purchases -0.1% but refi’s saw a big jump of 7%. Traders will be keeping an eye on whether the S&P 500 (SPX) can recapture that 1,900 level, though few catalysts are seen on the horizon.



Stock Stories:

Deere & Co. (DE) – Getting Plowed over –The equipment-maker posted better than expected top and bottom line quarterly results this morning.Although the agricultural economy remains in a relatively healthy condition, farm income is forecast to be lower than last year. The decline is putting pressure on demand for farm equipment, especially for larger models. The company’s shares are down 1% in the pre-market, which is less than the 2.5% that the option market anticipated.



Soda Stream (SODA) – Flat – The home soda-maker reported earnings this morning that beat on EPS and Revenue slightly.  The company reports a sharp drop in U.S. sales during Q1 after a "challenging" holiday set the stage for a drop in demand. Traders are taking note of the headwinds as the stock is down 3% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

9:00 am CT – Housing Marker Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday 5/14:

Before Market:   DE, M, PLUG, SODA, VLP

After Market:   A, CSCO, JACK, RMAX



Thursday – 5/15:

Before Market:  AAP,CA, COSI, KSS, PBH, WMT

After Market:  ADSK, AMAT, JCP, JWN, SINA
作者: 西门吹雪    时间: 2014-5-14 10:39

作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-15 08:41

5/15/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower as the market will try to get back to its winning ways following yesterday’s decline. Wednesday saw steep declines as a hot PPI report and a jump in bond prices set the negative tone for equities. Today investors will be watching economic data for direction. Retailers have begun to release quarterly results and the sentiment on consumer spending is weaker than expected. They continue to blame weather and both Kohl’s (KSS) and Wal-Mart (WMT) are sharply lower in the pre-market. Despite the fall in stocks yesterday, the CBOE volatility index (VIX) finished the session relatively flat.  Traders continue to monitor the spread between the Dow and S&P 500 versus the tech and small cap sectors. Are the latter forecasting a correction or will they reverse and catch up to the large cap stocks?



Bonds are up slightly after spiking higher yesterday. Many have predicted higher rates this year but have been completely wrong. The 10-year yield has dipped to 2.53%, on track to test the 2.50% psychological threshold ahead of the October low at 2.47%. European stocks are lower after mixed GDP data out of the euro-zone, with France and Italy especially disappointing, although Germany maintained its role as the engine of growth. Asian stocks trade mixed as investors digest earnings and strong but probably temporary Japanese economic growth. The packed data calendar includes CPI, jobless claims, industrial production, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philly Fed survey, homebuilder sentiment survey, and Treasury capital flows. Fed Chair Yellen will speak at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce after the close of the market today.



Stock Stories:

Wal-Mart (WMT) – Excuses for sale –The retail giant missed badly on quarterly EPS and revenue this morning.The company stated that severe weather adversely impacted comp sales. The company’s shares are down 3% in the pre-market, which is more than the 2% that the option market estimated.



Cisco (CSCO) – Beating – The tech bellwether reported earnings last night that beat on EPS and Revenue as the company continues to restructure. Investors like the news as the shares are up 6.5% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

7:30 am CT– Fed’s Dudley Speaks

8:00 am CT– Treasury Intl. Capital

8:15 am CT– Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

5:10 pm CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday 5/15:

Before Market:   AAP, CA, COSI, KSS, PBH, WMT

After Market:   ADSK, AMAT, JCP, JWN, SINA



Friday – 5/16:

Before Market:  CSIQ, SORL

After Market:  N/A
作者: oldhorse    时间: 2014-5-15 22:18

5/15/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower as the market will try to get back  ...
mooncake 发表于 2014-5-15 08:41


sina5月21日er
，不是15日。
正琢磨赌大还是赌小。
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-16 08:13

5/16/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a lower open ahead of May options expiration, as the market gets set to try to break its two day losing streak. Yesterday saw widespread selling for most of the day but stocks did rebound off of lows into the close.  Despite the sharp fall in stocks yesterday, the CBOE volatility index (VIX) finished the session up only about 8%.  The ‘Fear Gauge’ will need to break $14 on the upside if we are going to see any confirmation of any further selling. Fed Chief Yellen last night pledged to continue to support the economy and small businesses, noting that more progress was needed



Risk reversion remained the main theme overnight as global stocks jumped on board the downtrend.  After spiking higher again on Thursday, Treasuries have found some consolidation as the T-note yield is at 2.50% after failing to take out the 2.47% October lows yesterday. After Japan stocks piled on, Europe was a little calmer and U.S. equity futures are only slightly lower. Italy's MIB is even in positive territory after the rout and wild rumors yesterday of retroactive tax hikes again foreign bond holders were floated and denied in Greece and Italy. After the onslaught of mixed data yesterday, Friday brings a rather more limited fare. Today's calendar features just housing starts, expected to surge 4.7% to 990k in April. Also preliminary May consumer sentiment is expected little changed at 84.0 from April's 84.1. Fed-speak has the dovish Bullard speaking on the economy and monetary policy.



Stock Stories:

Nordstrom (JWN) – Soaring – The retailer missed slightly on Revenue but topped EPS on its quarterly earnings report last night.The company saw a slowdown in same store sales but backed previous guidance for FY14. The company’s shares are up 10% in the pre-market, which is more than triple the 3% that the option market estimated.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

10:50 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Friday 5/16:

Before Market:   CSIQ, SORL

After Market:   N/A



Monday – 5/19:

Before Market:  CPB, VAL

After Market:  URBN
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-18 19:01

May 18, 2014 Weekend Update

Even though the week got off to a good start, most major indexes ended the week flat to down somewhat. The Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs Monday. With little indicator news for the day, upward momentum came from belief that the economy is improving and on increased M&A activity. Weaker than expected Retail Sales hit stocks on Tuesday and the sentiment turned negative. Equities declined Wednesday, led down again by small caps. Weakness was due in part to profit taking. Corporate news was not favorable on downgraded outlooks from IBM, Macy's (M), Deere (DE), and Bank of America (BAC). Stocks continued to fall Thursday as an unexpected drop in manufacturing offset lower initial jobless claims. Also, Wal-Mart shares slid and weighed on both the S&P and Dow. At week's close, equities posted moderate gains on higher than expected housing starts. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was flat this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was off by 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) rose 0.5% and the small caps (RUT) finished the week down by a modest 0.4%. The market-leading small caps are now down over 5% for the year while the S&P 500 is up over 1%.  



Option Volatility remained muted despite the choppy sessions for stocks this week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was actually down by over 3% as traders continue to ignore buying any protection.  The ‘Buy on the Dip’ mentality has weakened and the moves are not quite as quick as they were over the last year or so. This could signal a topping that many have been expecting but so far has been non-existent.This past week's economic data were mixed, still being impacted by the lagged effects of severe winter weather. Oil futures (/CL) rose moderately this past week on concerns that oil supplies from Russia may be cut back. The biggest daily swing during the week was on Tuesday. Crude rose a buck and a quarter on forecasts that crude inventories will decrease as refinery production is boosted.



Treasury rates ended the week moderately down. On Monday, yields headed in the other direction, up on belief of an improving economy. At mid-week, yields eased further amid speculation of additional monetary accommodation in Europe in June. Rates dipped mid-week despite a higher-than-expected CPI, lower jobless claims, and favorable regional manufacturing reports. The big factor was slower-than-expected first quarter GDP growth for the Euro-zone plus weak U.S. industrial production. Rates firmed into the end of the week on the housing starts news. For the week, the view increased that the Fed would not be raising policy rates by June 2015 as suggested in Fed forecasts.



There is an abbreviated list of indicators ahead of the Memorial Day weekend. Bond traders in particular will be sensitive to Wednesday's release of FOMC minutes. With Empire State and Philly Fed indexes being healthy for May, the flash PMI for manufacturing may indicate if strength is nation-wide. Single-family housing has been sluggish and this week's reading on existing home sales and new home sales could point to whether there is improvement. Finally, most analysts expect the second quarter to show stronger growth and the April leading index may provide some confirmation. Earnings season is winding down but there are a few big retail reports this week which may sway equities.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  CPB, URBN, VAL



Tuesday: ADI, AINV, CNET, CRM, DKS, HD, INTU, MDT, SPLS, TJX



Wednesday: AEO, DRYS, HRL, LOW, NTAP, PETM, SINA, TGT, TIF, TSL, WSM



Thursday:  ARO, BBY, BRCD, DLTR, GME, GPS, MRVL, ROST, SHLD, SMRT, TFM, TIVO, TTC



Friday: FL



Economic Releases (5/19-5/23):

Monday:

11:10 am CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

11:30 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

Fed’s Yellen Speaks

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Dudley Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:50 am CT – Fed’s George Speaks

12:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlkota Speaks

1:00 pm CT – FOMC minutes

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT –PMI Mfg. Index -Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:00 am CT– Leading Economic Indicators

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – KC Fed Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-19 09:04

5/19/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are down modestly and may be suggesting that the market will start the week quietly. Little economic data is slated to be released, but options expired on Friday, and the first day of trading following options expiration could be volatile as traders continue to adjust their positions. The market finished higher on Friday, but notched its second consecutive weekly loss. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) finished the session on Friday lower and was actually lower despite choppy markets last week.  The rallies have become shorter in duration which may mean we are setting up for a sustained downturn.



Bonds are flat this morning and are continuing to show strength.  The 10-year yield hit year lows on Thursday before jumping back above 2.5% to end the week. Stocks are likely to take their cue from the Treasury market this week. Concerns from investors over low yields are forecasting the economy is not as strong as forecasted. Higher inflation data (PPI, CPI) from last week showed a rise in inflation but the treasury market shook it off.  Asian and European markets are lower today in light trading. AT&T (T) made a bid for DirecTV (DTV) over the weekend and the Dept. of Justice filed cyber economic espionage against Chinese officials. The U.S. economic calendar is devoid of any data today and remains rather meager ahead of the Memorial Day holiday next weekend. There's really nothing of substance until Wednesday, when the Fed minutes are released.



Stock Stories:

Disney (DIS) – Gold Mouse Ears – The entertainment conglomerate is raising prices again at its California Theme parks to $150 a day for the all-inclusive ticket.  The company is looking to monetize its gate receipts from overseas as it also cut the annual pass for locals.



Major Economic Reports:

11:10 am CT – Fed’s Fisher & Williams Speak



Notable Earnings:   

Monday 5/19:

Before Market:   CPB, VAL

After Market:   URBN



Tuesday – 5/20:

Before Market:  DKS, HD, MDT, RRGB, SPLS, TJX

After Market:  ADI, INTU, CRM
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-20 09:08

5/20/2014
U.S. stock futures (/ES) are mixed along the flat line and may again be suggesting that the market will be relatively quiet. With the news flow beginning to slow as earnings season winds down and no major economic data slated to be released, the market has been in drift mode. With the averages at such lofty levels, a consolidation phase may actually be a positive for investors. Option Volatility was flat during Monday’s session and should remain in a low range ahead on the long holiday weekend.



Stocks are very moderately firmer and yields have backed up from overnight lows after a fairly muted Treasury session. The 10-year T-note yield is at 2.54%. Europe's marginally lower and Asia gained a little overnight, though Thailand fell 1.1% after the army imposed martial law. Tuesday brings another stingy day of offerings from the U.S. economic calendar. Weekly chain store sales are on the docket today, with the ICSC-Goldman Sachs and Redbook figures due out. But that is it for the day, and Wednesday's calendar is also quite thin with only MBA mortgage applications. The one catalyst tomorrow afternoon could be the release of the latest FOMC minutes from last month’s meeting. In Fed-speak, Philly Fed hawk Plosser will discuss the economic outlook from 11:30 am CT.



Stock Stories:

Home Depot (HD) – Seasonal – The home improvement retailer posted a mixed earnings report as the company missed on top-line revenue this past quarter.  Despite the miss, HD raised its FY14 guidance. Non-weather related markets showed increased sales after a slow start.  The shares are down 1.4% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales - down 1.3% for the week

11:30 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday 5/20:

Before Market:   DKS, HD, MDT, RRGB, SPLS, TJX

After Market:   ADI, INTU, CRM



Wednesday – 5/21:

Before Market:  AEO, HRL, LOW, PETM, TGT, TIF, TRL

After Market:  NTAP, SINA, SNPS, WSTL, WSM
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-21 09:26

5/21/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are suggesting a slight bounce for the broader market following yesterday’s moderate sell-off. Heavy losses were bought into the close which limited the downside damage. Once again, investors will have little news on which to focus, as the earnings season is nearing its end and little economic data is set to be released. Retail stocks continue to get hammered as sales and revenue remains weak. The weather excuse is gone and consumer spending is below what many predicted into spring. Option Volatility rose modestly on the sell-off yesterday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still low near $13 and may not see any sustained upside into the holiday weekend. The MBA mortgage figures were released this morning and showed a minimal gain of 0.9%. Low rates and little spring strength have done little to help the mortgage and lending markets this year.



Treasuries are to lower in tandem with a downside bias in global bond markets. Yesterday saw a wide range in Bonds as weakness early on was bought quickly on the comments from a couple of Fed members. The 10-year yield is still hovering near the 2.5% level and many expect Treasuries to drive the equity markets in the near-term. Monetary policy is the center of attention around the world today. The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, as expected, but showed no urgency to inject additional stimulus. The Bank of England minutes were on the hawkish side as they showed some members are moving closer to voting for a rate hike. In the U.S., the FOMC Minutes and Fed-speak are the main items on the calendar. Fed Chair Yellen gives a commencement speech at NYU and Dudley, George, and Kocherlakota speak.



Stock Stories:

Target (TGT) – Off Target – The retailer posted a mixed earnings report as the company missed on EPS but beat slightly on top-line revenue this past quarter.  Target’s U.S. comparable sales decreased 0.3% in Q1, near the high end of the expected range but they lowered FY14 guidance. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 0.9% for the week

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Dudley Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:30 am CT - Fed’s Yellen Speaks

11:50 am CT – Fed’s George Speaks

12:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlkota Speaks

1:00 pm CT – FOMC minutes



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday 5/21:

Before Market:   AEO, HRL, LOW, PETM, TGT, TIF, TRL

After Market:   NTAP, SINA, SNPS, WSTL, WSM



Thursday – 5/22:

Before Market:  BBY, BKE, DLTR, SHLD, SMRT, TD

After Market:  ARO, BRCD, DRYS, GME, GPS, HPQ, MRVL, ROST, TIVO, YOKU, ZUMZ
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-22 08:00

5/22/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are slightly higher to flat as the market will look to build on its gains from yesterday. Yesterday saw gains across the board despite early losses out of the market-leading small caps. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest gains in over a month as Blue Chip stocks were in demand. Investors will be watching several economic data points scheduled to be released today including the weekly jobless claims data, existing home sales data, leading economic indicators, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.  Option Volatility took a hit yesterday as stocks finished the session near highs for the day. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is now back below $12 but is at support as it has bounced off these levels repeatedly over the last year.



Treasuries are relatively flat after a slight sell-off yesterday which helped push U.S. equities higher. The 10-year yield gained modestly and is currently still in a tight range just above 2.53%. Overseas markets were mostly higher but China was off slightly. China’s purchasing managers' index reached a five month high of 49.7 this month and beat expectations. A purchasing managers' index for the euro-zone came in at 53.9 for May, little changed from April. The report indicated that the bloc is continuing to expand at a slow, steady pace. We should see volumes fall even further over the next two days as traders take off for the long holiday weekend, which could provide some choppy markets for investors.



Stock Stories:

Best Buy (BBY) – Unplugged –The retailer posted a mixed earnings report as the company beat on EPS but missed on top-line revenue this past quarter.  As expected, Domestic comparable sales declined 1.3%, in a context where sales in the Consumer Electronics industry continued to decline. The shares are down 4% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT –PMI Mfg. Index -Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:00 am CT– Leading Economic Indicators

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – KC Fed Mfg. Survey

3:00 pm CT – Fed’s Williams Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday 5/22:

Before Market:   BBY, BKE, DLTR, SHLD, SMRT, TD



After Market:   ARO, BRCD, DRYS, GME, GPS, HPQ, MRVL, ROST, TIVO, YOKU, ZUMZ



Friday – 5/23:

Before Market:  FL

After Market:  N/A
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-26 18:55

Weekend Update

May 26, 2014

Last week was capped with the S&P 500 (SPX) finally clearing above the key psychological barrier of $1900 on Friday to record a fresh all-time closing high.  The broad based markets continue to recover from the early-May snafu and now show little sign of slowing down following a strong surge for much of the week off lighter volume ahead of the long holiday weekend.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has completely collapsed over the past several sessions before finishing the week at the 13 mo. low of $11.36.   Traders are once again discounting potential risk to chase popular momentum names higher.  The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) rebounded an impressive 2.5% during the same period after losing favor for much of the last quarter although the small cap index benchmark still remains well below all-time highs set in April.



The housing story appears more upbeat as of late with New Home Sales soundly beating estimates on Friday after two consecutive months of disappointment.  Treasury yields wrapped up trading at 2.53% after the positive housing data which was near the mid-point of its weekly yield range.  Oil futures (/CL) continue to press higher and are now approaching key resistance levels that have not been topped over the past year.  A muted geopolitical climate around the globe may eventually stall the recent run-up in price.  More consolidation has also been seen over the past few months in precious metals as Gold futures (/GC) have seen no reasonable catalyst to move pricing out of a tight range.



Although this week’s economic calendar is relatively light, a few critical data points will be watched to measure the overall health of an ongoing economic recovery.  Durable goods and Preliminary GDP numbers may likely set the tone for the remainder of the week.  Ukraine's progress will also be closely monitored following yesterday's successful election of President Poroshenko. Russian Rebels are still raising havoc in attempts to further destabilize the region.  The eventual outcome still has the potential to sour recent advancements with any significant signs of renewed escalation from Russia.  Earnings Season is almost finished with the exception of a few noteworthy tech and retail names slated to release over the next several sessions as both sectors have seen inconsistent results so far this quarter.



Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:



Monday: N/A



Tuesday: AZO, JKS, QIHU, WTSL, WDAY



Wednesday:  BWS, CHS, DAKT, DSW, PANW, PLKI, TOL



Thursday: ANF, AVGO, COST, EXPR, GES, LGF, PSUN, SPLK



Friday: BIG



Economic Releases (5/26-5/30):



Monday:



Markets Closed in Observance of Memorial Day



Tuesday:



7:30 am CT – Core Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT – Housing Price Index

8:30 am CT – ECB President Draghi Speaks

8:45 am CT – Flash Services PMI  

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT –Richmond Manufacturing Index



Wednesday:



TBD



Thursday:



7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Preliminary GDP

9:00 am CT– Pending Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Storage

10:00 am CT – Crude Inventories  



Friday:



7:30 am CT – Personal Spending/Income

8:45 am CT– Chicago PMI

8:55 am CT– University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

4:00 pm CT– FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-27 09:53

5/27/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are indicating an optimistic start to the shortened trading week.  All eyes will be on the durable goods survey this morning at 7:30 CT to measure companies’ willingness to spend on larger ticket items over the last month. The expectation is a modest decline of 0.7% after April’s strong surge. Any positive beat may likely send markets even higher as the bar is set quite low.



European Markets hit a fresh 6 year high earlier this morning off more merger speculation along with a higher possibility of further rate cuts hinted from ECB President Mario Draghi’s most recent speech.  Japan’s Nikkei is marking a seven-week high and saw its fourth consecutive day of gains off the heels of positive manufacturing data from China.



Gold Futures (/GC) took over a 1% dip over the weekend as the election process in Ukraine has been met with only minor incidence.  The move marks a two-week low as investors rotate out of the safe haven for more aggressive assets in light of the recent resurgence in equity buying.



Stock Stories:



Hillshire Brands (HSH) – Food Fight??  – Pilgrim’s Pride just offered $45 per share to purchase Hillshire Brands this morning.  Ironically, Hillshire also recently announced a deal to purchase Pinnacle Foods (PF) which may be in jeopardy depending on the outcome.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Core Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT – Housing Price Index

8:30 am CT – ECB President Draghi Speaks

8:45 am CT – Flash Services PMI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT –Richmond Manufacturing Index


Notable Earnings:



Tuesday 5/27:

Before Market: AZO, JKS

After Market: QIHU, WDAY, WTSL



Wednesday – 5/28:

Before Market: BWS, CHS, DAKT, DSW, TOL

After Market:  PANW,PLKI
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-29 09:11

5/29/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are trading near slightly higher ahead of several economic data points. Investors will be watching the annualized GDP report, personal consumption reading, jobless claims data, and energy inventories reports for clues about the economy. Trading has been light during this holiday shortened week, and the pattern will probably continue during today’s session.  Option Volatility rose yesterday despite the strength in equities. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at support levels just below $12 and has bounced off these levels repeatedly over the last year.



Treasuries extended gains slightly overnight as the global bond rally continued. The 10-year yield tested 2.42% and is at levels not seen since last June. There wasn't much news overnight. Japan retail sales fell 4.4%, in line with expectations. Meanwhile, month-end duration demand and expectations for ECB stimulus next week helped keep a bid in global bonds. Forecasts for a downward revision to the upcoming U.S. Q1 GDP are also supporting Treasuries. With the lowered expectations for growth, we should see muted downside today or another ‘Buy on the Dip’ on any weakness.



Stock Stories:

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) – Comeback –The retailer posted earnings above expectations as the company beat on EPS and top-line revenue this past quarter.The company is maintaining its guidance in FY15, which now includes the effect of the Q1 accelerated share repurchase. The shares are up 7% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Preliminary GDP

9:00 am CT– Pending Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Storage

10:00 am CT – Crude Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 7-year note Auction Results  



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday 5/29:

Before Market:   ANF, COST, DG

After Market:   AVGO, EXPR, GES, PSUN, SPLK



Friday – 5/30:

Before Market:  ANN, BIG, NGL

After Market:  N/A
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-30 09:08

5/30/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES)are slightly lower and quiet in early trading. The market hopes to build on yesterday’s moderate advance which pushed the S&P 500 (SPX) to a new all-time closing high. Today investors will be watching the personal income and spending reports, the Chicago purchasing managers' report, and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for clues about the health of the economy. Economists are expecting the April consumer spending number to be unchanged after the largest jump since 2009 in March. Once again investors may ignore any downbeat numbers just as they did with the negative GDP report yesterday.



Bond markets are flat to slightly lower in pretty good volume. The 10-year yield is trading narrowly around 2.47% and continues to reflect the demand for Treasuries. There was lots of data out of Japan and Europe but the reports failed to provide any defined direction. Overseas investors will have their focus on the ECB and the meeting and announcement next Thursday the 5th. Markets are rallying on the notion that the ECB will provide further stimulus plans but it could be another buy the rumor sell the news scenario if it comes in less than expected. Traders today will also focus on Fed-speak, from Lacker, Plosser and Williams from a monetary policy conference in California.



Stock Stories:

Wal-Mart (WMT) – Disparity –The retailer defends its level of executive compensation in a SEC filing after getting blasted earlier this week by ISS on the issue and others. The company says its top management was paid cash bonuses and performance share payouts that were at a "historically low" level despite getting an adjustment that caught the eyes of ISS. The shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Personal Spending/Income

8:45 am CT– Chicago PMI

8:55 am CT– Consumer Sentiment

1:00 pm CT– Fed’s Lacker Speaks  

4:00 pm CT– Fed’s Plosser Speaks  



Notable Earnings:   

Friday 5/30:

Before Market:   ANN, BIG, NGL

After Market:   N/A



Monday – 6/2:

Before Market:  CONN

After Market:  KKD, VRNT
作者: not4weak    时间: 2014-5-30 09:51

买rsx?
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-5-30 10:29

要买的话在21-22附近买，如果能买到的话。。。
回复 19# not4weak
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-5-30 13:26

买rsx?
not4weak 发表于 2014-5-30 09:51


要靠乌克兰把它打下来
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-1 20:49

Weekend Update

June 1, 2014


Equities ended this past holiday shortened week moderately up. The week began Tuesday with healthy gains as the Small-cap and technology stocks led the broad rally. Better than expected economic data, including durable goods orders and home prices boosted sentiment as the S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a record high. On Wednesday, stocks fell with weakness led by retailers. Thursday saw a jump in stocks even though a downward revision to first quarter GDP was more negative than forecast. Analysts still attribute much of the weakness in GDP to adverse weather but that excuse is now gone. More than offsetting the reading for GDP was a sharp drop in initial unemployment claims. The week ended mixed with Blue Chips up and many other major indexes down. An unexpected dip in consumer spending from the personal income report weighed on stocks into the end of the week. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up a robust 1.2% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was up a modest 0.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led the major indices to the upside jumping 1.4% on the heels of more gains in its biggest component Apple (AAPL).The small caps (RUT) finished the week up a modest 0.7% and is still down for the year.



Option Volatility remained at extremely low levels and Friday touched its lowest intra-day price in a year. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was actually flat for the week as we seem to have hit some support near $11.30.  The VIX has consistently bounced off of current levels for over a year so hopefully we see the same scenario play out as earnings season winds down.Gold futures (/GC) fell again this past week as inflation concerns wane and demand is weakening. The precious metal fell over 3% for the week and is at multi-month lows.



Treasury yields were mixed this past week. At the start of the week on Tuesday, a slow rise in home prices offset stronger durables orders. Also, belief that the Fed would go slow on taper became more entrenched. A rally in government bonds in Europe made U.S. Treasuries more attractive, pushing yields down mid-week. An unexpected rise in unemployment in Germany fueled speculation that the European Central Bank will add stimulus at this week's policy meeting. Many had predicted a rise in rates but so far have been completely wrong as supply and demand have pushed U.S. Treasury prices higher.



This week's highlight is Friday's employment report for May. Also providing updates on the consumer sector will be motor vehicle sales and the ADP private employment report. The manufacturing sector is showing renewed vigor and early readings at the national level will come from this week's PMI and ISM index. Watch for news out of Europe on Thursday this week as the ECB is expected to increase its economic stimulus efforts. Any disappointment from them will most likely punish markets as most recent gains are based on something that will have a big impact.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  CONN, KKD, VRNT



Tuesday: FCEL, SWHC



Wednesday: FIVE, JOSB, PVH



Thursday:  CIEN, DMND, JOY, MTN, SJM, TITN



Friday: KMG



Economic Releases (6/2-6/6):

Monday:

3:00 am CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– Construction Spending

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

Auto Sales – all day

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

9:00 am CT– Factory Orders

12:50 pm CT – Fed’s George Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

7:30 am CT– International Trade

7:30 am CT– Productivity & Costs

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

12:30 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

9:00 am CT – Jobs Report

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-6-1 21:34

thanks
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-2 09:15

6/2/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES)are trading slightly higher ahead of the markets open. Last week ended with the Dow and S&P at record levels. The futures are quiet despite positive manufacturing data out of China. The world's second largest economy has now reported positive manufacturing data for three months in a row. Investors will be watching several U.S. economic data points today including ISM manufacturing, PMI and construction spending for the month of April. The Fed’s uber-dove Evans spoke overnight in Turkey on timing of a rate hike and once again pinned the time frame on inflation, which is still too low.



Treasuries are a little lower after a mixed performance in global bonds. This follows a good performance in bonds last month. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 2.49%, and Asian fixed income markets were mostly lower too. China's PMI and Japan's Capex Survey both beat expectations to give Asian stocks a solid lift. But European PMIs generally disappointed, while German state CPI data suggests a dip below 1% in the figure for May. Also, U.K. mortgage approvals and business lending data disappointed. It's an important week of data and events with the markets looking ahead to Thursday's ECB decision and Friday's U.S. May employment report.



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) – Developed –The tech retailerhas its annual Worldwide Developers Conference beginning today in San Francisco. The company is expected to announce a major refresh of OS X. Analysts say Apple will not announce a set-top box, larger iPhone or a smartwatch at the conference. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

3:00 am CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– Construction Spending



Notable Earnings:   

Monday 6/2:

Before Market:   CONN

After Market:   KKD, VRNT



Tuesday – 6/3:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  ABM, FCEL, SWHC
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-6-2 12:44

双方势均力敌
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-3 08:54

6/3/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are lower this morning after the Dow and S&P closed at new highs yesterday. Today’s early weakness is being linked to the Euro-Zone’s weak inflation rate, and it's unlikely that a catalyst will emerge to help boost the market’s fortunes. Investors will not have much to focus on as economic news is light today. Option volatility remains stubbornly low but has finally found some support at current levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still under $12 but should get a boost today if stocks stay in negative territory.



Treasuries are a lower again today after falling sharply yesterday. Bonds have found some weakness and yields may have seen a recent bottoming last week. The 10-year Treasury yield rose back above 2.5% and is now sitting near 2.56%. Overseas markets are mixed with most of the Euro-zone in negative territory after the weak inflation data. This data could provide further pressure for the ECB to increase its stimulus package that is expected on Thursday of this week. A surprise drop in German unemployment added to the bearish action as did a solid gain in U.K. home prices, which are above its pre-recession 2007 highs. Today's calendar includes vehicle sales for May, April factory orders, and weekly chain store sales, but there should be limited market reaction. There will be Fed-speak on the economy from noted Hawk George this afternoon.



Stock Stories:

AT&T (T) – Guiding –The telecom giant reaffirms FY14 guidance for stable consolidated margins and revenue growth in the 5% range. The company cited its Project VIP network transformation plan being ahead of schedule and its plans driving a shift in the company’s wireless revenue components. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

Auto Sales – all day

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales -

9:00 am CT– Factory Orders

12:50 pm CT – Fed’s George Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday 6/3:

Before Market:   DG

After Market:   ABM, FCEL, SWHC



Wednesday – 6/4:

Before Market:  HOV, JOSB

After Market:  FIVE, PVH
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-4 08:47

6/4/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES)are trading slightly lower this morning after a lackluster session yesterday. Investors begin to look forward to the May employment data that will begin to be released today. The ADP Employment Change report, which measures service sector jobs in the economy, is expected to show that the economy added 210,000 such jobs and is a precursor to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report from the government. Option protection remains cheap as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still under $12. Volumes have been extremely low and the market continues to play a waiting game for some type of catalyst.



Bonds are little changed to slightly lower and off their best levels from overnight. The 10-year yield fell to 2.56% overnight, but has edged back up to 2.6%. Global bonds are lower, even as equities are lagging. Trading volume was moderate volume ahead of the ECB meeting announcement tomorrow. Data were mixed with Euro-zone services PMI revised lower, but the U.K. nonmanufacturing PMI beating expectations. Meanwhile, Euro-zone PPI improved year over year while Q1 GDP came in at 0.2%. In the U.S., the markets will look to May ADP data (miss) this morning, along with ISM services and revised Q1 productivity, and trade. The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 3.1% in the week ended May 30. The weaker trend in mortgage activity came despite another drop in average mortgage rates. The Fed also releases its Beige Book this afternoon and should show an improving U.S. economy.



Stock Stories:

Panera Bread Co (PNRA) – What the?! –The casual dining chain plans to remove artificial ingredients from its menu by 2016 under a new food policy. Though the restaurant chain will get high marks from health advocates for the shift, analysts warn the pressure to comply with the "nothing artificial" claim will require heavy oversight and extra costs.  



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 3.1% for week

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

7:30 am CT– International Trade

7:30 am CT– Productivity & Costs

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday 6/4:

Before Market:   HOV, JOSB

After Market:   FIVE, PVH



Thursday – 6/5:

Before Market:  CIEN, JOY, SJM, TITN

After Market:  ALOG, DMND, IDT, MTN, PAY
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-6-4 08:49

Private-sector hiring in May hit the slowest pace in four months as service providers decreased their rate of hiring, according to data released Wednesday morning.
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-4 10:30

bad news...
回复 28# aimei
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-6 08:23

6/6/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are suggesting a higher open following another record close for the Dow and S&P 500 yesterday. Investors are awaiting the non-farm payrolls report which is expected to show that the economy added 215,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.4% from last month’s 6.3% as more people join the workforce. Earlier this week the ADP jobs data missed on the downside and we still rallied, so more of the same would be expected.  The ECB acted as expected yesterday as they lowered interest rates modestly and set the deposit rate into negative territory. ECB head Draghi also indicated they will take more necessary steps to increase inflation and lending in the Euro-zone.



Treasuries are slightly higher and are attempting to add to yesterday’s gains. The 10-year yield fell off the 2.6% level but the jobs data will dictate direction today.  Europe continues to gain following the ECB's move into negative rate territory yesterday. Germany’s state bank raised its growth forecast today and has the burden of leading the Euro-Zone into recovery mode.  Asian shares were relatively flat for the session. The focus is all about the jobs data and there is not much else on today's calendar, with just April consumer credit on tap.



Stock Stories:

Amazon.com (AMZN) – Slim Phone, Slimmer margins –The online retailer/cloud company has an announcement on June 18thand many expect it to be their first foray into the smartphone segment. As typical with AMZN, they will most likely price it to sell and not make any money as they work to get more traffic to their site. The stock rose 5% yesterday on the rumor and is up slightly ahead of the opening bell this morning.  



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Jobs Report

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit



Notable Earnings:   

Friday - 6/6:

Before Market:   KMG

After Market:   N/A



Monday – 6/9:

Before Market:  HTZ

After Market:  N/A
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-8 18:21

Weekend Update

June 8, 2014

Data impacted by adverse winter weather and the following rebound are now coming into play. The latest numbers are showing improvement, which is providing lift to equities. Despite this, the moderate growth has provided too much of a boon to stocks.  The ISM manufacturing report provided unexpected volatility to markets early last week. After hours of confusion, the Institute for Supply Management officially corrected its initial report to show that the pace of growth in the US manufacturing sector accelerated in May instead slowing in the initial release. Stocks had moved lower after the ISM reported what turned out to be erroneous data however; they rebounded in the afternoon once the corrected data on manufacturing showed the sector expanding. Midweek showed some profit-taking but even a miss on the ADP number could not stop the rally. Thursday and Friday saw the Dow Jones and S&P 500 at record levels once again as any moderate data is a positive at this point. S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up a robust 1.3% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was up 1.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) jumped 1.9% on more Apple (AAPL) gains into its stock split for Monday. The small caps (RUT) finished the week up a 2.7% as its trying to catch up to the other benchmarks that were out-performing the sector.



Option Volatility is dismal and non-existent as equities hit new highs. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) settled at 10.73 and had its lowest levels since before the recession in 2007.  The VIX broke some key support levels around the $11.30 level as option buying wanes.Stock and option volumes are extremely low but many are staying on the sidelines as bubble-type moves are worrying investors.



Treasury yields rose notably this past week. The biggest moves were Monday and Tuesday. At the week's start, yields rose moderately on news of a measure of Chinese manufacturing hitting a five-month high and on a corrected ISM report showed manufacturing in May at its strongest growth this year. After no change Wednesday and muted reaction to the Beige Book, rates nudged down after the ECB announced unprecedented policy measures to loosen monetary policy. Yields flattened Friday after the May jobs report which showed a moderate rise in payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate at 6.3 percent.



The focus this week is on the consumer and Retail Sales. Last week showed improving employment gains and the question is whether the consumer will continue the spring thaw in spending. Motor vehicle sales were up strongly for May but will other components in retail sales follow this trend? Consumer confidence has been stalling and we get an early reading for consumer sentiment for June this week. Earnings season is all but over so focus will be on the moderate amount of data this week.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  HTZ



Tuesday: OXM, PBY, SAIC, ULTA, UNFI



Wednesday: HRB, MVC



Thursday: CASY, FNSR, LULU, RFIL



Friday: N/A



Economic Releases (6/9-6/13):

Monday:

8:10 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Tarullo Speaks

12:30 pm CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Retail Sales

7:30 am CT –Import & Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – PPI

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-6-8 22:38

谢谢
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-9 09:14

6/9/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES)are trading just slightly lower as the market looks to extend its latest rally. The S&P 500 (SPX) is now just below the 2000 milestone. Analysts believe it will take a couple of weeks for the index to reach that level, as it has not moved more than 1.0% in a single session in almost two months. The Dow Jones ($DJI) is also making its way toward its next major milestone of 17,000 and stands just 76 points away from that level. With a thin week of economic news and earnings, we could see the market continue to grind higher and reach those extended levels. McDonald’s (MCD) releases it same-store sales this morning ahead of the opening bell.



Risk-on trading helped extend losses in Treasuries this morning. Weakness in core Asian and European bonds also weighed on fixed income markets. The 10-year yield rose over the 2.6% level to hit 2.62%. A better than expected upward revision to Japan Q1 GDP to 6.7%, and a sharp rise in China's trade surplus saw a flow into stocks overseas. Today's U.S. calendar is void of any significant data and includes only Fed-speak from Bullard, Tarullo, and Rosengren. Supply will be a feature this week with the $62 B in Treasury coupon auctions, beginning with Tuesday's 3-year note sale. Data over the rest of the week, includes retail sales, trade prices, PPI, JOLTS, and consumer sentiment.



Stock Stories:

Merck (MRK) – M&A, at the top?! –The pharmaceutical giant is acquiring Idenix (IDIX) for $24.50 a share in a deal announced this morning.  Merck is using its cash hoard to buy the company for a premium of 230% above its closing price on Friday. Merck’s shares are slightly lower ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

8:10 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Tarullo Speaks

12:30 pm CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Monday - 6/9:

Before Market:   HTZ

After Market:   N/A



Tuesday – 6/10:

Before Market:  PBY, SAIC

After Market:  OXM, ULTA, UNFI
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-6-9 10:44

1950 过了
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-10 10:42

6/10/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES)are trading lower as the market is looking heavy after its record setting rally. The Dow and S&P have closed higher in eight of the past nine sessions and set all-time closing highs on several of those days. Option volatility remains at extremely low levels but did manage to bounce higher yesterday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 4% on Monday but hit levels on Friday not seen since before the recession in early 2007. Complacency is increasing but the lack of a negative catalyst can have equities continue their grind higher and keep volatility low.



Treasuries are a little lower in this morning. The yield on current 10-year is now firmly above the 2.6% level, which may become a near-term support level. Supply is weighing on Treasuries with the start of the $62 B in coupon auctions, beginning with today's 3-year Note sale. Overseas saw U.K. industrial production stronger than expected, while retail sales posted a modest gain. China CPI posted a 2.5% year over year rate, which was close to expectations and had stocks up over 1%. Today's calendar includes April JOLTS, April wholesale trade, and weekly chain store sales.



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) – Banana Split –The tech product maker split its stock 7:1 yesterday.   The company stock price is now under $100 and has over 6 Billion shares outstanding.  The stock is up 69% from June 2013 and many are expecting a new set of products that are going to support the rally in the shares.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales - Down 2.8% for the week

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday - 6/10:

Before Market:   PBY, SAIC

After Market:   OXM, ULTA, UNFI



Wednesday – 6/11:

Before Market:  MVC

After Market:  HRB, SIGM
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-15 14:20

Weekend Update

June 15, 2014


Random unscheduled effects had an impact on markets this past week. Iraq is back in the news, congressional changes and economic indicators came in as unexpected. In spite of this, markets only retreated modestly after once again setting all-time highs at the start of the week. More M&A activity buoyed stocks on Monday along with the gains from the previous week. Mid-week saw some profit taking as Republican House leader Cantor was defeated in his Primary. The World Bank also lowered growth expectations, which had some small negative impact on equities. Thursday, stocks dipped on disappointingly low retail sales and a slight increase in initial jobless claims. Adding to the downdraft in the afternoon were comments by President Obama that he refused to rule out U.S. action in Iraq against Islamist militants who have surged out of the north toward Baghdad, threatening to divide the country. Worries about oil supplies impacted stocks as well as oil prices. Stocks shook off concerns to end the week as stocks finished Friday up slightly. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down 0.7% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) led the losses off 0.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) and the small caps (RUT) were both off by only 0.2%.



Option Volatility saw some life this past week on the slight downturn is stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 13% for the week but was coming off multi-year lows from the previous week’s slide.  The VIX has continually bounced off the $12 level over the last year and a half, but we did break key support levels as stocks hit all-time highs recently.  We may see some additional volatility in the markets if turmoil in Iraq picks up or economic news disappoints.  There is also the Fed to deal with this week as the FOMC concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday.



Treasury yields were only modestly changed this past week despite the unexpected news. There were some mixed Treasury auctions this past week but the 30-year on Thursday continued to show that demand is strong for the safety on Bonds.The bottom line is that monthly data have been volatile most notably for consumer spending and producer prices. Traders and investors may look to average recent numbers instead of focusing on just one month. Oil Futures (/CL) may have a larger effect on markets this week as the turmoil in Iraq as crude markets in flux. Crude prices hit levels not seen since last September on the backs of supply disruptions in Iraq and speculators.



This week's highlights are the FOMC decision Wednesday, the FOMC quarterly forecasts, and the chair press conference after the decision. Fed taper is expected to remain on course with another $10 billion reduction in bond purchases. What is new is how newly appointed Fed Board members fit in and affect the tone of policy. For indicators, there are key updates for manufacturing and housing. Industrial production has shown recent signs of new life including production worker hours and manufacturing surveys. Housing has been a tough read as its been flat except for gains in the multifamily component. Although earnings season is just about over, there are a few key reports due this week.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  KFY



Tuesday: ADBE, BOBE, LZB, UWN, YGE



Wednesday: ATU, FDX, JBL, RHT



Thursday: BBRY, KR, ORCL, PIR, RAD, SCHL, SWHC, TIBX



Friday: KMX. DRI



Economic Releases (6/16-6/20):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

8:00 am CT – Treasury Int. Capital

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT– Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Forecasts

1:30 pm CT – Chair Yellen Press Conference

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Philly Fed Survey

9:00 am CT –Leading Economic Indicators

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

N/A
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-16 09:27

6/16/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES)are pointing to a slightly lower open as investors remain concerned about the advance of radical forces in Iraq. M&A activity continues to pick up as two new deals were announced.  The situation reminds us too much of past bubbles when buyout activity picks up at extended price levels. Option volatility may continue to bounce off recent lows as we finally have a catalyst for downside. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is above the $12 level despite Friday’s gains and should remain firm if stocks stay in the red.



Treasuries are higher with the Risk Off trade gaining steam. Geopolitical risks, especially with concerns over the increasing violence in Iraq have fostered a flight to safety. The yield on the 10-year note dropped back below the 2.6% level once again. Overseas bond markets are higher and stocks are lower. Along with the worsening conditions in Iraq, the Ukraine is still an issue, while the ECB's stimulus continues to underpin. The euro zone's annual inflation rate came in at 0.5% for May, staying in the "danger zone" of below 1%. Meanwhile, attention will be shifting to the FOMC decision (Wednesday), along with Yellen's press conference and the new Fed projections. As for today, the calendar includes June Empire State manufacturing index, May industrial production and capacity utilization, the June homebuilder sentiment survey, and April Treasury capital flows data. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its annual review of the U.S. economy today at 7:30 am CT. IMF Director Lagarde will hold a news conference to discuss the report.



Stock Stories:

Yelp.com (YELP) – Five Stars –YELP shares gained last week after Open Table (OPEN) agreed to be bought by Priceline (PCLN). The stock jumped 14% on Friday and may become a target as M&A activity picks up.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

8:00 am CT – Treasury Int. Capital

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index



Notable Earnings:   

Monday - 6/16:

Before Market:   N/A

After Market:   KFY



Tuesday – 6/17:

Before Market:  GAI, UWN

After Market:  ADBE, LZB
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-17 09:09

6/17/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly higher open as investors remain optimistic about the turmoil in Iraq. Both Oil (/CL) and Gold Futures (/GC) are pulling back as concerns from traders contracts. M&A activity continues to pick up as two new deals were announced.  The bullish trend is still present and investors continue to ignore any negative news. Despite yesterday’s small advance, option volatility actually rose slightly.  While stocks continue to grind back towards all-time highs, traders are still balancing their portfolios in the option market by purchasing option protection, albeit modestly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is now firmly above $12 but should pull in if stocks remain in positive territory.



Bonds are little changed with a slight bearish leaning, in sync with modest declines in bonds overseas. The 10-year Treasury yield traded narrowly around 2.60%. Stocks are mixed with Asian stocks mostly lower, European markets slightly higher and U.S. equity futures flat. Data overnight showed several surprises with Chinese foreign direct investment declining year over year. German confidence fell to 29.8, and U.K. CPI slowed to 1.5%. In the U.S. the FOMC begins its 2-day policy meeting. Along with tomorrow's announcement, there's a Yellen press conference and the release of new Fed forecasts. Data on tap today includes May CPI, housing starts, and weekly chain store sales.



Stock Stories:

Tesla (TSLA) – Charging –The electric car-makers stock spike over 8% yesterday.   Two of Tesla's (TSLA) competitors in the electric car space, Nissan and BMW Group have expressed an interest in collaborating on charging technology.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT– Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday - 6/17:

Before Market:   GAI, UWN

After Market:   ADBE, LZB



Wednesday– 6/18:

Before Market:  ATU, FDX

After Market:  JBL, RHT
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-18 08:10

6/18/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a flat to slightly higher open as traders look to continue the grind upwards. Yesterday’s poor housing data and a hotter than expected read on inflation did not prevent the Bulls from buying early morning weakness once again. The FOMC finishes up a two day meeting today with a policy decision and press conference from Chair Yellen. The FOMC is expected to further reduce its bond-buying program by $10 billion to $35 billion a month, and leave unchanged the Fed funds policy target of 0% to 0.25%.The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains near the $12 but may strengthen on any hiccups out of the Fed today.



Treasuries are a little higher on ‘’Risk-Off’ flows, in tandem with bonds in Europe, amid reports Sunni militants attacked Iraq's largest oil refinery. The 10-year yield has dipped slightly to 2.64%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England minutes, as expected, reflected the increased hawkishness. This may signal higher rates sooner than expected. European markets were modestly higher as was Japan. The FOMC is the focus today, along with the Fed forecasts and Yellen's press conference. The MBA reported mortgage applications declined 9.2% in the week ended June 13, mostly erasing the prior week's 10.3% increase.



Stock Stories:

Adobe Systems (ADBE) – Jump on the Bandwagon –The software company and creator of PDF and Photoshop posted better than expected earnings after the bell yesterday. Cloud and digital creation subscriptions were the drivers to the positive quarter. The shares are up over 9% ahead of the opening bell on the heels of a massive amount of call option buying yesterday.



FedEx Corp. (FDX) – Delivered – The shipping giant posted better than expected quarterly results on higher top line Revenue figures. The company confirmed FY15 expectations on continued global growth.  The shares are up 3% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 9.2%

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Forecasts

1:30 pm CT – Chair Yellen Press Conference



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday - 6/18:

Before Market:   ATU, FDX

After Market:   JBL, RHT



Thursday – 6/19:

Before Market:  BBRY, KR, PIR, RAD

After Market:  ORCL, SWHC, TIBX
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-20 08:22

6/20/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat ahead of today's “quadruple witching” day. Today the stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures will all expire for the monthly June cycle. The day’s trading could be marked by higher volatility and higher volume but only if we can get a catalyst for movement. There will be little else for investors to key in on as no significant economic data is due to be released.Option volatility continues to weaken and is showing no signs of reversing. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is under $11 and could potentially end up below $10 into the July 4thholiday.  Last time the VIX traded at these levels was just before the financial collapse in 2007.



Global bonds are mostly lower with the U.S. Treasury market the underachiever. The 10-year yield has risen to 2.64% as bonds turned negative throughout yesterday’s session. Overseas markets were mixed on light volume and there wasn't a lot of news overnight. The IMF has called on the ECB to consider a large scale asset purchase program, though market hopes for such are fading.



Stock Stories:

Darden restaurants (DRI) – Free Stale Breadsticks –The company falls short of analysts’ estimates with its quarterly report as weak traffic trends persists. All three restaurant concepts showed higher pricing during the quarter. The shares are down about 3% ahead of the opening bell.



Oracle Corp. (ORCL) – Re-Boot – The tech giant posted a disappointed quarterly report after the close yesterday.  The company is trying to build its cloud offerings but continues to struggle with competition. The shares are down 6% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

Quadruple witching Expiration



Notable Earnings:   

Friday - 6/20:

Before Market:   KMX. DRI

After Market:   N/A



Monday – 6/23:

Before Market: N/A

After Market:  MU, SONC
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-22 16:10

June 22, 2014 Weekend Update

Equities were once again boosted by loose monetary policy. Weak housing data and mixed jobs data are also being offset by stronger than expected Manufacturing sector. The push into riskier assets such as stocks continues to be the Fed’s focus even as economic growth is showing signs of sustainability on its own. M&A activity is also boosting equities as companies reach for growth anywhere they can. Overall, favorable economic news (including Fed news) outweighed worries about the Ukraine and Iraq. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 1.4% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) finished the week up 1.0%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) rose 1.3% and the small caps (RUT) led the rally and finished the week up 2.2%.



Every downturn in option Volatility this week saw a bounce higher but eventually continued its consolidation lower. We have not seen the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at these levels since 2007 just before the economic collapse.  While many have been calling for a stock market correction, the ‘Fear Gauge’ continues to defy its critics and show little downside risk. There is plenty of economic data to move markets this week and there was more negative news out of Russia and the Ukraine this weekend. Watch today’s 5 pm CT open of S&P 500 futures (/ES) for direction into Monday.



Treasury yields were essentially unchanged this past week although there were a few mild daily swings. Higher than expected inflation data on Tuesday (CPI) sent Bonds higher and yields lower but the Fed once again took care of this on its interest rate decision on Wednesday. It was a relatively quiet week for Oil Futures (/CL) despite the turmoil in Iraq. High Crude prices will eventually negatively affect consumer spending but so far has not done so.



Housing has been sputtering in recent months and the focus is on this sector. Home prices have been decelerating and updates this week will stand out along with existing and new home sales. Also, manufacturing has shown new signs of life and the durables report will confirm or not whether strength is national. Finally, the highlight for the consumer sector is the personal income report. Although earnings season is just about over, there are a few key reports due this week including reports from Walgreens (WAG), General Mills (GIS) and Nike (NKE).


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  MU, SONC



Tuesday: APOG, WAG



Wednesday: APOL, BBBY, BKS, CCL, GIS, LEN, LNN, MON



Thursday: CAN, CAG, MKC, NKE, WGO



Friday: FINL, KBH



Economic Releases (6/23-6/27):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Chicago National Activity Index

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT– FHFA House Price Index

8:00 am CT – S&P Cadse/Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT– Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results



                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods

7:30 am CT – Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results

                     

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT –Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-23 08:39

6/23/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat to start the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)  is close to 17,000 and the S&P 500 (SPX) is approaching 2,000, but both may have some resistance at these levels. Inflation is noticeably on the rise in the U.K., U.S., Canada, and Japan. Though special factors can account for some of the recent strength, the markets have not dismissed the run up as "noise" as Fed Chair Yellen did in her press conference. This debate won't be settled anytime soon and it will take many months before some clarity becomes evident.  Option volatility continues to weaken and is showing no signs of fear. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is under $11 and it will take a significant catalyst to gain any upside traction.



Treasuries are a sharply higher with the 30-year bond out-performing. The 10-year yield has dipped back under 2.60%. Weakness in Eurozone manufacturing PMIs offset gains to the Chinese and Japanese readings, which boosted European debt markets while equities are slightly lower. Additionally supporting Euro-zone bonds were hints from ECB's Draghi that rates could stay low until at least 2016. Today's U.S. calendar has May existing home sales, the manufacturing PMI, and the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index. The price of oil (/CL) continues to climb as the violence in Iraq escalates, which could negatively affect equities.



Stock Stories:

Lululemon  (LULU) – See through –The athletic apparel maker’s founder is constructing a strategy to gain more control at the company. He is in discussions with investment banks for either a Proxy fight for more Board seats or finding a partner for a buyout. The shares are up 7% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed National Activity Index

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales



Notable Earnings:   

Monday - 6/23:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:   MU, SONC



Tuesday – 6/24:

Before Market:  WAG

After Market:  APOG
作者: oldhorse    时间: 2014-6-23 21:47

gdp is the key this week, I am thinking how this would move the market which is stuck here now just waiting for it, I guess.
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-24 08:53

6/24/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower ahead of a full day of economic reports and Fed-speak. Yesterday saw the S&P 500 Index (SPX) fall for the first time in 7 sessions, although it was only minimal. The major indices have not had a 1% move or greater in either direction for almost two months as complacency and consolidation have set in. Although there is plenty of market-moving news on tap, we could grind to new highs into the 4thof July weekend.  High oil prices (/CL) are putting pressure on stocks and may be the only bump in the road for equities to hit new upside milestones.



Treasuries are higher again this morning.  Bonds rose sharply for most of Monday’s session before finishing the session relatively flat. The 10-year yield had dipped back under 2.60% before firming into the close. Shares in Asia were higher led by markets in China.  European stocks were minimally lower after comments from Bank of England's Carney that rate increases will be "limited and gradual" in parliamentary testimony, and worries over reports ISIS has taken control of the largest oil refinery in Iraq. There's plenty of data on tap today including the 2-year Note auction, May new home sales, June consumer confidence and the April Case Shiller and FHFA home price indexes. There is also data from the June Richmond Fed, weekly chain store sales and Fed-speak today.



Stock Stories:

Walgreen Co.  (WAG) – Drugged –The retailer/Pharmacy chain posted weaker than expected quarterly results this morning. The company missed on top-line revenue and EPS but stated that synergies between itself and Alliance Boots in Europe are accelerating. The company unfortunately alsosays experiencing increased pressure on pharmacy gross profit margins.The shares are down 2% ahead of the opening bell and the option market had priced in a move of 3.5%.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – up 2% for the week

7:05 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

7:30 am CT– FHFA House Price Index

8:00 am CT – S&P Case/Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT– Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Fed’s Dudley Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday - 6/24:

Before Market:  WAG

After Market:   APOG



Wednesday – 6/25:

Before Market:  APOL, BKS, GIS, MON, OMN

After Market:  BBBY, FUL
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-25 08:15

6/25/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading flat this morning ahead of a slew of economic data.  Yesterday saw the S&P 500 Index (SPX) reverse in the afternoon after hitting all-time highs again in the morning. The slide was quick and not supported by any significant news but may be signaling a near-term top in stocks. The markets are finally taking the turmoil in Iraq to task and there may be some profit taking into the end of the fiscal quarter. Option volatility spike higher on the equity sell-off yesterday as investors scrambled to buy protection from extremely low levels.  The CBOE volatility Index rose 10% and is now back above $12.  Despite the rally, any consolidation or rise in stocks would most likely send the ‘Fear Gauge back to previous levels very quickly.



Treasuries are up slightly in tandem with gains in overseas bonds, as stocks remain weak. The 10-year yield has slipped modestly to 2.57% in light volume trading. The U.K. CBI retail sales survey dropped sharply which caused European bonds to rise. The markets then shrugged off the better than expected German consumer confidence data. Geopolitical risks out of Iraq and Ukraine are also keeping investors nervous. There's a lot on the U.S. docket today with the 5-year note auction, along with data on durable orders, revised Q1 GDP and the flash PMI services index. The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 1.0% in the week ended June 20.



Stock Stories:

General Mills (GIS) – No Prize in the box –The consumer goods maker posted worse than expected quarterly earnings this morning.  The company missed on top-line revenue and EPS and international sales continue to weaken. The shares are down 2.5% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 1% for the week

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods

7:30 am CT – Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday - 6/25:

Before Market:  APOL, BKS, GIS, MON, OMN

After Market:   BBBY, FUL



Thursday – 6/26:

Before Market:  ACN, CAG, LEN, MKC, WGO

After Market:  NKE
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-6-25 10:20

thank very much indeed
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-26 08:41

6/26/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are relatively flat in early trading. Investors will be watching jobless claims data, personal income and spending, and natural gas inventories today. The jobless claims data is expected to show that there were were 310K initial claims and 2.56M continuing claims last week. Personal income is expected to have risen 0.4% in May, while spending is also expected to have increased 0.4%. The Fed will be particularly watching the spending data as they need more clarity on the consumer during the recovery. Option volatility regressed again yesterday as stocks reversed higher once again.  The CBOE volatility Index needs a catalyst to pick up any upside expansion but we may not see that into the end of the quarter.



Bonds are also flat in tandem with U.S. equities. The 10-year yield has slipped this week and is now firmly under 2.6%. Asian shares were mostly higher led by Hong Kong which rose 1.5%.  European shares are slightly lower to flat ahead of the U.S. economic data. Yesterday’s worse than expected GDP data initially put pressure on stocks but the Bulls quickly bought the downturn and rallied into the close. Bad news is being met with buying as traders are ignoring the data. In corporate news, Barclays is being sued by the New York attorney general for its management of its dark pool trading program.



Stock Stories:

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) – Sold! –The retailer posted worse than expected quarterly earnings last night but only missed slightly.  The company saw slower same store sales numbers and analysts seem to think that forward guidance may be hard to achieve. Investors are speaking loudly as the shares are down 8% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT –Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday - 6/26:

Before Market:  ACN, CAG, LEN, MKC, WGO

After Market:   NKE



Friday – 6/27:

Before Market:  FINL, KBH

After Market:  N/A
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-27 09:22

6/27/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are drifting slightly lower this morning as the trading week comes to a conclusion.   Both the Dow and S&P 500 are also down fractionally for the week and have struggled to extend above all-time highs recorded just last week.   The Nasdaq 100 has been the outperformer as of late and continues to benefit from the return to several tech momentum names.   Traders will be eagerly watching to see if the markets will continue to see buying at any sign of weakness shortly after the open.



Market sentiment was rattled yesterday after a more hawkish tone was hinted from St. Louis Fed President Bullard on the eventual raising of interest rates.  Treasury yields have continued to drop near three-week lows after reports of slowing economic growth scared some investors back to the safety of bonds. The 10-year yield has dipped back to 2.51% as a result.



The CBOE Volatility index spiked briefly in yesterday’s session before closing near the low of 11.63. The index is still up over 7% for the week.  Commodities appear to be in check this morning with both Gold futures (/GC) and Oil futures (/CL) only trading marginally higher.  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number is the only piece of economic news today after mixed results from much of the week have left investors guessing on the current health of the ever recovering economy.



Stock Stories:

NIKE (NKE) – SWOOSH!! –The athletic apparel maker reported a solid quarterly result after the market close yesterday thanks to a strong lift from both North America and Europe.   The company is also benefiting from the positive momentum of the ongoing World Cup frenzy.  Shares are up 3% pre-market.  



Major Economic Reports:

8:55 am CT – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment



Notable Earnings:

Friday - 6/27:

Before Market: FINL, KBH

After Market: N/A



Monday – 6/30:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market: N/A
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-6-27 10:03

VIX
up
thks
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-29 21:44

June 29, 2014 Weekend Update

U.S. markets wrapped up the 2nd quarter on a positive note Friday afternoon as the S&P 500 gained another 3.9 points to finish at $1961. Some last minute quarterly shuffling helped to fuel markets higher throughout the session even after a shaky open.  The broad based index gained an additional 4.7% during the 2ndquarter which extends a 6thconsecutive quarterly improvement with the market still hovering just below all-time highs.  The strongest sector up to the mid-point of 2014 has been Utilities with the retail group lagging after never gaining traction from  the weather related shortfall earlier in the year.



Treasury rates ended the week just moderately above the 2.5% threshold for the 10 year after sliding to a month low earlier in the week off the heels of the weaker than expected GDP result .  Some hawkish dissention among the Federal Reserves may help to stabilize rates above this level with inflationary concerns rearing its head in various segments of the market.  Bond traders may experience an uptick in activity surrounding Chairman Yellen’s comments on Wednesday as markets gauge the landscape of an eventual rate hike.



The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains stagnant just above $11 with no catalyst able to reverse the current momentum lower so far this year.  Oil prices (/CL) briefly stabilized near $105 a barrel over the past few sessions after volatile trading pushed crude higher for much of June with the unraveling Iraq crisis being the main cause. Even with an abbreviated week ahead with Friday’s observance of the 4thof July, traders will still have plenty of market data to interpret during the next four sessions with Fed Chairman Yellen, trade balance, and monthly employment being the main focus.   Company earnings will be non-material until after the holiday when Alcoa will officially kick off yet another round the following week.



Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:



Monday: N/A

Tuesday: N/A

Wednesday: STZ, UNF

Thursday: ISCA

Friday: Market Holiday



Economic Releases (6/30-7/4):



Monday:

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales



Tuesday:

7:00 am CT – Treasury Secretary Lew speaks

9:00 am CT – ISM Manufacturing PMI

9:00 am CT – Construction spending

9:00 am CT – Vehicle Sales (All Day Reporting)



Wednesday:

6:30 am CT – Challenger Job Cuts

7:15 am CT – ADP Non-Farm Payroll

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:30 am CT – Crude Oil Inventories

10:00 am CT – FED Chairman Yellen Speaks



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Monthly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –Trade Balance

9:00 am CT – Unemployment Rate

8:45 am CT– Final Services PMI

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories



Friday:

Market Holiday-No Data
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-6-30 09:03

6/30/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading almost flat ahead of a condensed trading week.   Tomorrow will usher in the start of Q3 and may be the catalyst for more last-minute “window dressing” by institution investors during today’s session.  The big news over the weekend was the monumental settlement of the French Banking powerhouse BNP Paribas with U.S. Officials for $9 Billion after the bank admitted to conducting countless illicit transactions with prohibited countries.  European stocks are currently trading flat off the news with the FTSE300 at 1,371.



Gold Futures (/GC) are indicating some profit taking this morning as the precious metal is trading lower by .5% ahead of the bell.  Crude Oil (/CL) is also down by roughly the same margin to start the week.  Headlines in Iraq seem to be tapering slightly which may be contributing to the renewed weakness in both over the past few sessions.



Today’s Chicago PMI forecast will be looking for a reading of 63.2 at 8:45 Central.  This number is considered by many as a leading indicator for the overall economic health of businesses and their willingness to purchase additional inventory based on sentiment.  Home Sales will also be on display today with an expectation of a 1.4% increase at 9:00 Central.  Markets will be anxiously awaiting Wednesday’s speech from Chairman Yellen to better ascertain the Fed’s stance on the economic recovery and any hint to when the eventual hike of interest rates may occur.  Monthly Unemployment results on Thursday will also be pivotal if the markets expect to continue to propel the sustained rally into new highs.



Stock Stories:

GoPro (GPRO) – Adrenaline Rush! –The maker of custom mounted Hi-Def. Video components made popular by high adventure junkies continues to surge after last week’s IPO.  Shares are indicating a higher open in pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:



8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales



Notable Earnings:



Monday - 6/30:

Before Market: N/A

After Market: N/A



Tuesday – 7/1:

Before Market: N/A

After Market: N/A
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-3 08:07

7/3/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly above fair value as investors anxiously await the monthly jobs report. It'll be a short session today, with the major stock exchanges closing at 12 pm CT. Yesterday saw stocks set another upside record but the rally was somewhat subdued despite a positive surprise to the ADP jobs report. Analysts are predicting that the government’s non-farm payroll data increased 215K and the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 6.3%. If the nonfarm-payrolls report sharply outstrips expectations, it could spur speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than expected. This morning, the ECB left benchmark interest rates and deposit facility rates unchanged as expected.



Treasuries are little changed after a big sell-off on solid volume Wednesday. Concerns over inflation and an earlier interest rate hike had yields rising on the bond downturn. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.62% and could continue to rise if the jobs data comes in higher than expected. Challenger just reported announced layoffs which showed a 21.5k decline, down 20% year-over-year. Other data today includes June ISM services release and the May trade balance, along with weekly jobless claims, though their impact should be muted.  This is an abbreviated session with the markets closing early ahead of the July 4thholiday.



Stock Stories:

Amazon.com (AMZN) – Legally –U.S. regulators are accusing Amazon of charging users for additional services through registered credit cards, after an app is downloaded for free. This case is similar to the settled one by Apple (AAPL) which the company paid out over $30M. The shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Jobs Data

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –International Trade

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

Markets close at 12:00 pm CT

Markets closed on Friday



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/3:

Before Market:  ESI

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 7/7:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  N/A
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-7-3 09:29

高开低走
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-6 18:09

July 6, 2014  Weekend Update

Stocks once again showed strength this past holiday-shortened week. The highlight of the week was Thursday’s Employment report which was above expectations and saw healthy growth. Higher than expected housing data did not boost equities to start the week but the major benchmark indices still rallied into record territory. Auto sales out-performed and manufacturing data is still trending higher. On Thursday, the last day of trading for the week, an unexpectedly strong jobs report for June sent stocks higher and the Dow ($DJI) over the 17,000 mark. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 1.2% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) finished up 1.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led the gains up 2% and the small caps (RUT) finished the week up 1.6%. All the major indices are up for the year led by the S&P and Nasdaq, which are both higher by over 7%.



Option Volatility reflected the bullish trend in stocks as it continued to weaken. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is under $11 and is at seven-year lows. A low interest rate environment and an accommodative stance by the Fed are providing the fuel for the move into riskier assets such as stocks. Economic data is relatively light this week so any downside catalyst may still be a ways off. For the second quarter, the recovery has regained strength across a variety of sectors. Clearly, the consumer and manufacturing sectors are gaining strength. However, construction and housing is uncertain. Second quarter GDP growth should be relatively strong but it has to make up for the weak first quarter numbers.



Treasury yields ended the week up somewhat strongly. After essentially no change Monday on little news, rates rose Tuesday on stronger than expected manufacturing data, auto sales and on increased belief the economic data are healthy enough for the Fed to nudge up its schedule for increases in policy rates. On Wednesday and Thursday, the jobs data affirmed the positive economic situation which once again had yields rising. It was a relatively quiet week for Oil Futures (/CL) but it did grind lower. The increased belief that internal strife in Iraq would not interrupt oil production produced a slide in crude prices.



With a relatively light schedule this week except for the TD Ameritrade IMX data, the focus is on the consumer. After this past week's favorable employment report for June, attention will be on whether other consumer sector indicators confirm the better jobs numbers. But there likely will be a good chance of pullback after recently strong numbers. Job openings were up notably in the latest report for April. Earnings season also kicks off this week, albeit in a quiet way.  Reports are due from Alcoa (AA) and Wells Fargo (WFC).


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  N/A



Tuesday: AA, TCS, TZ



Wednesday: NG, RT, SYRG



Thursday: FDO, PGR



Friday: FAST, INFY, WFC



Economic Releases (7/7-7/11):

Monday:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

12:00 pm CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

12:45 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Wholesale Trade

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

12:15 pm CT – Fed’s George Speaks

3:30 pm CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

10:15 pm CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-7 08:34

7/7/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly lower open as investors return from the holiday weekend. The early weakness could have been triggered by statements by IMF head Christine Lagarde that were seen as hints that the organization will cut its world GDP forecast. On a positive note, China’s premier said his country’s economy is improving. There will be little else for investors to key in on today as little economic data is slated to be released, and the summer doldrums may be beginning to take hold. Earnings season kicks off this week but will be fully in focus next week as any improving corporate news could provide the next leg up for equities.



Treasuries are relatively flat after falling last week. Overseas news saw weaker than expected German production helped boost Treasuries. The 10-year yield is flat at 2.65% after retesting 2.5% just a week ago. Equities are lower on profit taking from record gains on Wall Street and the strongest rally in European exchanges since March. Today's calendar is thin with just the TD Ameritrade IMX data due.  Treasury supply will be a focal point this week as the market digests $61 B in Treasury auctions, starting tomorrow. The FOMC Minutes from the June 17, 18 policy meeting (Wednesday) will be of considerable interest too.  



Stock Stories:

Boeing (BA) – Derailed? –A train derailment in Montana sent three fuselages for its 737 jetliner tumbling down an embankment toward a river and damaged other plane parts. Analysts do not believe this will negatively affect the stock and the shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 7/7:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  N/A



Tuesday – 7/8:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  AA, HTZ, TCS
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-7-7 08:37

sounds bad for BA
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-8 08:31

7/8/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly lower open as the weakness from yesterday’s session looks set to continue today. Weak markets overseas and some potential profit taking had equities under pressure throughout Monday’s session. The weakness could have been triggered by statements by IMF head Lagarde that were seen as hints that the organization will cut its world GDP forecast. Volatility spiked on the downturn as traders bought options. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 10% but it was off extremely low levels.



U.S. Treasuries are up modestly this morning after solid gains yesterday. The ‘Risk-Off’ trade was prominent as investors switched on recent flows. The 10-year yield is down below 2.6% again and could be signaling a further demand for the safety of Bonds. Asian markets were mixed but European stocks once again are lower ahead of the U.S. open. Economic data is light today with only the JOTLS report of any significance. There is plenty of Fed-Speak to potentially roil markets and earnings season unofficially kicks off tonight with the release of quarterly results from Alcoa (AA).  



Stock Stories:

Facebook (FB) – Vidiot –Facebook updated its mobile video player with a new "suggested videos" feature that could encourage more video uploading to the site and opens up an advertising opportunity for sponsored video suggestions. The shares also received an analyst price target raise. The shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – Up 1.7% for the week

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

12:00 pm CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

12:45 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 7/8:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  AA, HTZ, TCS



Wednesday – 7/9:

Before Market:  SYRG

After Market:  LFC, NG, RT
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-7-8 08:53

AA ER after close
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-9 08:50

7/9/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly higher open as markets try to break their two-day losing streak. Small caps (RUT, IWM) once again led the declines but tech and high-flyers also forced the sectors lower than the Blue Chip indices (SPY, DIA). Increasing hawkish comments from some Fed members will have all eyes on the FOMC minutes released today. Volatility spiked again as stocks were under more pressure on Tuesday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has now risen 16% this week and hopefully we have seen the bottom in premium. We could see some give back today if stocks stay in positive territory.



Treasuries are modestly lower in light trading. The 10-year yield edged up to 2.57% but remains in a tight range. Many expect rates to rise sooner than expected but most have been dead wrong as bond prices remain elevated. There wasn't much data overseas but U.K. house prices declined 0.6% in June and China CPI slowed to 2.3% year-over-year. A watchful eye is being kept on the violence in the Middle East as turmoil has erupted once again in Gaza. Alcoa unofficially kicked off earnings season with a beat. There's not a lot on the economic docket today. The Treasury reopens $21 B in 10-year notes at auction. The main focus will be on the FOMC Minutes to the June 17, 18 policy meeting, which will be released this afternoon. The MBA report mortgage applications rebounded 1.9% in the week ended July 4 but the housing sector remains a question mark.



Stock Stories:

Alcoa (AA) –Tin –The aluminum giant posted better than expected quarterly results yesterday after the close. The company reiterated its global demand growth target of 7% and raised its 2014 estimate for North America transportation market. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Up 1.9%

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 7/9:

Before Market:  SYRG

After Market:  LFC, NG, RT



Thursday – 7/10:

Before Market:  FDO, PGR

After Market:  CUDA, PSMT
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-10 10:27

7/10/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a sharply lower open as markets are under pressure from a few different angles. Investors are digesting yesterday’s FOMC minutes, dealing with a potential banking crisis in the Euro-Zone, turmoil in Gaza and corporate economic warnings. The parent of a key Portuguese Bank delayed short-term debt payments which has most major European banks under heavy pressure. The Fed plans to exit its bond buying program by October but keep interest lows. Recent positive economic and jobs data was not in yesterday’s FOMC minutes so hawkish comments were not as plentiful as many expected. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell only modestly yesterday as stocks were under pressure until the end of the day rally. We should see a sharp spike higher in the ‘Fear Gauge’ today if stocks remain in negative territory.



Treasuries are sharply higher this morning as investors reposition themselves with the ‘Risk-Off’ position. The 10-year yield is back down to the 2.5% level and may be under more pressure than expected. Besides the banking issues in Europe, poor economic news is also roiling markets. Italy’s industrial production unexpectedly fell 1.2% in May, the biggest decline since November 2012, and French production also surprised with a 1.7% drop, the largest fall in more than 18 months. Chinese Trade data also missed expectations to the downside. Economic data is light with just the Weekly Jobless Claims and Wholesale trade due today. There is more Fed-Speak on tap also but most focus will most likely be on overseas developments.  Earnings season begins in full-force tomorrow with the release of quarterly results from Wells Fargo (WFC).



Stock Stories:

Lumber Liquidators (LL) –Tin –The Company warned yesterday after the close that FY14 will be much lower than expected. They blamed significantly weaker consumer traffic as the housing sector continues to lag the economic recovery. The shares are down over 20% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Wholesale Trade

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

12:15 pm CT – Fed’s George Speaks

3:30 pm CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/10:

Before Market:  FDO, PGR

After Market:  CUDA, PSMT



Friday – 7/11:

Before Market:  FAST, INFY, WFC

After Market:  N/A
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-11 08:51

7/11/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly higher open and try to reverse yesterday’s losses. Yesterday started out with heavy losses as most major benchmark indices were down over 1%.  The markets recovered to almost unchanged but fell late in the session on a myriad of troubling economic and geopolitical news.  There is no economic news today so markets will rely on overseas news and the quarterly results from banking giant Wells Fargo (WFC). The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 8% on the declines and breached the $13 level for the first time in a month and a half. We should see a quick give back today in option volatility if stocks remain in positive territory.

Treasuries are little changed to modestly higher, alongside gains in most global bond markets. Fears over the Portuguese banking system eased off slightly to allow Euro-Zone markets to improve. The 10-year Note yield is trading just above the 2.5% level and remains at low levels as investors are still pouring into the safety of Bonds. U.S. equity futures are higher in tandem with gains in European markets while Asian stocks were mixed on little news overnight. There's little on today's U.S. calendar with just Fed-speak and the June Treasury budget report. Fed speakers include the hawkish Plosser and doves Lockhart and Evans.

Stock Stories:

Wells Fargo (WFC) –Interest -ing –The Banking giant posted in-line EPS with top-line revenue slightly better than expected.  The company’s CEO is optimistic about the bank’s future despite the firm relying on a less than stellar housing market. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

10:15 pm CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 7/11:

Before Market:  FAST, INFY, WFC

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 7/14:

Before Market:  C, MTB

After Market:  PPHM, WTFC
作者: 黄金奇异果    时间: 2014-7-11 09:08

谢谢月饼美眉
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-11 09:17

亲客气了...
回复 62# 黄金奇异果
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-13 16:38

July 13, 2014

Stocks ended the week down led by declines in Tech and the small caps. Although it was a quiet week for economic data, it was not quiet in the financial markets. Several concerns bumped down stocks—including geopolitical concerns, the Fed and corporate data. Meanwhile, the Fed is working on its exit strategy and the economy actually improved. According to the minutes of the June 17 and June 18 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve intends to end its bond-buying program in October provided the economy continues to grow. Traders worried that the Fed will start raising rates sooner than many believe, which pressured markets. Stocks retreated for a second day on Tuesday as investors were cautious ahead of the start of earnings season which was led off by Alcoa (AA). Positive results led to a small rebound midweek for equities. The week ended mixed as concerns about the financial health of Portugal's top listed bank gave investors a reason to cash in recent gains and head to safety. Losses in European markets quickly spread to the U.S. The week closed on a positive note with a modest rebound, largely on bargain hunting, especially for some tech stocks up notably. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down 0.9% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was off a modest 0.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) fell 1.6% and the small caps (RUT) led the downside finishing off 4%.



Option Volatility was at extremely low levels to start the week but the declines in stocks quickly sent the ‘Fear Gauge’ spiking. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was near $10 but shot up by 24% to above $12. Although still at a weak level, investors have picked up their option buying as stocks were at all-time highs into the 4thof July holiday. Consumer spending concerns crept into the market as a few retailers warned of continued slow sales. The weather-effect is a thing of the past and retailers expected bigger consumer demands into the summer but that has not materialized.



Treasury yields were down notably this past week with flight to safety the primary reason as economic news was light but positive. The biggest swing down for rates was Tuesday but yields edged down each of the other trading days. The ‘Risk-off’ trade was strong as investors continued to pour money into Bonds. There has also been some increased out-flow into equity funds over the last week, which increased demand for Treasuries. It was a sharp sell-off for Oil Futures (/CL) this week as crude fell by over 3%.  A boost in supplies and mellowing concerns in Iraq had oil falling throughout the week.



There is plenty of economic data and corporate quarterly results to focus on this week. The long list of releases covers a variety of sectors with highlights for the consumer, manufacturing, and housing. Retail sales slowed in May but will recent job gains boost June sales? Industrial production was solid in May but according to production worker hours, there could be some softening in June. This sector has provided key strength to the economy in recent months. Housing has been oscillating recently with starts falling sharply in May so the data will provide further clarity for this sector. Look for earnings reports from bellwethers JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Intel (INTC) and Google (GOOG/GOOGL) to set the tone on the corporate front this week.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  C, MTB, PPHM, WTFC



Tuesday: CMA, CTAS, CSX, GS, INTC, JNJ, JPM, WWW, YHOO



Wednesday: ABT, BAC, BLK, EBAY, NTRS, PNC, SNDK, STJ, USB, YUM



Thursday: AAL, AN, ATHN, BHI, BAX, BX, COF, DHR, FITB, GOOG/GOOGL, MAT, NVS, PM, PPG, SAP, SLB, STX, SYK, UNH



Friday: BK, FHN, GE, HON, JCI



Economic Releases (7/14-7/18):

Monday:

N/A

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT– Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

7:30 am CT – Import & Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

8:00 am CT – Treasury Intl. Capital

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:00 am CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Housing Starts

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:35 pm CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-7-13 18:04

谢谢，　明天看Ｃ
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-14 08:32

7/14/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open to begin the week’s trading. Optimism over the earnings season, which will begin in earnest this week, has led investors to bid up the market. Despite last week’s modest losses, stocks are still near all-time highs. No economic data is slated to be released today, but later this week a number of meaningful reports that will help investors gauge the health of the economy are slated to be released. Investors will also be watching geopolitical events in a number of hot spots, including Israel, Syria, and Ukraine also. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 24% last week but is still only at the $12 level. We should see option volatility fall quickly today if stocks stay in positive territory.



Treasuries are mixed near the flat line in quiet trading amid some spillover from weakness in bonds overseas. Overseas news was light but both China and Japan were up nearly 1%. Angst over the Portuguese banking system has subsided for the moment which helped propel European markets higher. However, geopolitics remain a risk with the worsening conditions in the Mideast and Ukraine as the Russian foreign ministry said shelling from Ukraine may have "irreversible" consequences. Today's U.S. calendar is empty but picks up tomorrow as attention will be on Fed Chair Yellen's Monetary Policy Report to Congress (Tuesday, Wednesday). Citigroup and various other financials start off a busy week of earnings announcements.



Stock Stories:

Citigroup (C) – Need more earnings –The Banking has reportedly agreed to settle claims by the Dept. of Justice and FDIC for $7 B. Mortgage backed securities were fraudulent according to the claims and Citi said it’s in the best interest of shareholders to settle the accusations.  The company reported better than expected quarterly results this morning and the shares are up over 3% ahead of the opening bell.



Apple (AAPL) – Ahead of the game? – The tech product maker continues to receive upgraded analyst news ahead of its earnings next week. One new item may produce some short-term turmoil – as China's state media says Apple's iPhone is a threat to the country's national security because of the devices ability to track and time-stamp user locations. The company completely denies the allegations. The stock is up 1% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

N/A



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 7/14:

Before Market:  C, MTB

After Market:  PPHM, WTFC



Tuesday – 7/15:

Before Market:  CMA, GS, JNJ, JPM, WWW

After Market:  CSX, INTC, YHOO
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-15 09:27

7/15/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are beginning to show some strength this morning as investors prepare to analyze the positive earnings from some of the country’s largest banks and corporations. Investors will also examine several economic reports that are scheduled to be released today but much of the focus will be on testimony by Fed Chair Yellen to Congress this morning. M&A activity continues to pick up as a couple new deals were announced overnight led by the takeout of Lorillard (LO) by Reynolds American (RAI). Option volatility gave back minor gains yesterday as equities were strong throughout the session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is back below $12 and should remain weak unless a new downside catalyst appears for stocks.  



Treasuries are trading slightly higher which means the 10-year yield is down this morning. Overseas news was light but the ECB’s Draghi warned that euro zone recovery is at risk with a strong euro.  A weaker than expected German ZEW confidence report boosted most European bond markets. In Japan, the Bank of Japan left policy on hold and modestly trimmed it's 2014-2015 GDP growth projection to 1.0% from 1.1%. The market tone is muted ahead of Fed Chair Yellen's Monetary Policy Report. Analysts see risk of a less than outright dovish tone, though analysts don't expect anything definitive on the exit strategy. Data today will also be monitored with June retail sales, June trade prices, May business inventories, and the July Empire State index on tap, along with weekly chain store sales. Earnings reports after the close include results from Intel (INTC) and Yahoo (YHOO).



Stock Stories:

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) – $ makes $ –The Banking giant posted better than expected quarterly results on the Top and bottom lines. The company added legal expense charges and reported less employees. The shares are up 2% ahead of the opening bell, which was slightly more than the option market predicted.



Goldman Sachs (GS) – Lower estimates to beat! – The investment bank reported quarterly results that beat estimates, albeit on lowered guidance.  The stock is up 1.7% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – up 0.1% for the week

7:30 am CT– Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

7:30 am CT – Import & Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 7/15:

Before Market:  CMA, GS, JNJ, JPM, WWW

After Market:  CSX, INTC, YHOO





Wednesday – 7/16:

Before Market:  ABT, BAC, NTRS, PNC, STJ, TXT, USB

After Market:  EBAY, LVS, SNDK, URI, YUM
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-16 08:21

7/16/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open as investors remain optimistic about earnings season. Equities were slightly lower yesterday as Yellen’s testimony to the Senate had traders nervous. Another round of solid reports from some of the country’s largest corporations has put the Dow and S&P near record territory again. Estimates were lowered in many sectors so the beats have to be taken with a grain of salt. Option volatility rose slightly as equities were relatively weak. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) seems to have found a near-term bottom near $11 and cracks are appearing. The historically leading small-cap sector (RUT, IWM) was sharply lower yesterday and may be forecasting further downside risk for stocks.  



Treasuries are little changed and are underperforming European and Asian bonds. The 10-year yield traded down to 2.53% and remains in a tight range near this level. Larger than expected demand for a German auction beat down yields, but a beat on U.K. employment data and unwinding of Portuguese banking fears limited the rally. U.S. equity futures are higher in tandem with gains in European markets. Fed Chair Yellen reprises her testimony today before the House Financial Services Committee, which could roil markets. More information from the Fed is also on the way with the release of its Beige Book for the July 29, 30 FOMC meeting at 1 PM CT. Data will continue to fill out the calendar with PPI, industrial production, the NAHB homebuilder sentiment index, Treasury capital flows, and weekly MBA mortgage applications on the docket. There will be Fed-speak from the hawkish Fisher. On the earnings front there are announcements from Yum Brands (YUM), eBay (EBAY), and SanDisk (SNDK). Bank of America just reported better than expected data this morning but the stock is flat.



Stock Stories:

Intel (INTC) – Chipper –The tech bellwether posted better than expected quarterly results on the Top and bottom lines. The company also raised its stock buyback program and increased forward guidance. The shares are up 5.6% ahead of the opening bell, as upgrades and price target increases are pushing the shares to multi-year highs.



Yahoo (YHOO) – Bad = Bad? Finally? – The internet stock reported quarterly results that missed expectations as revenue drops. The only positive at the company now is the big stake in Alibaba, which is going public in the next couple of months. The stock is down 2.8% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

8:00 am CT – Treasury Intl. Capital

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:00 am CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 7/16:

Before Market:  ABT, BAC, NTRS, PNC, STJ, TXT, USB

After Market:  EBAY, LVS, SNDK, URI, YUM



Thursday – 7/17:

Before Market:  AAL, AN, BHI, BAX, CY, FITB, KEY, MAT, MS, NVS, PM, PPG, SAP, SHW

After Market:  AMD, ATHN, COF, GOOG/GOOGL, IBM, SLB, STX, SYK
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-17 08:52

7/17/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a lower open ahead of the release of several economic data points. Yesterday saw modest gains in equities but the rally was muted on many fronts. The small-cap sector (RUT/IWM) finished the day in the red while all other major indices were higher. This disturbing trend is playing out as many predicted as small caps historically lead the overall market. Investors are exercising caution as the number of warnings about a stock market bubble increases. Many on Wall Street are waiting for some type of correction, but they have been frustrated as the market has hit several new all-time highs this year. Option volatility should spike higher today on bubble concerns and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and Ukraine. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell right to the $11 level once again but as pointed out yesterday, it has repeatedly bounced off this area..  



The flight to quality lifted bonds globally with the 10-year Treasury yield down to the 2.50% level once again.  Increasing Russian-Ukraine tensions and more sanctions on Russia knocked equities lower. Meanwhile, June inflation came in as expected at 0.5% year over year overseas. Today's U.S. calendar includes the July Philly Fed manufacturing index, June housing starts, and weekly initial jobless claims. The Fed's Bullard, a voter, will speak on monetary policy. There are earnings announcements from Morgan Stanley (MS), Google (GOOG/GOOGL), IBM, and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) among others.



Stock Stories:

Morgan Stanley (MS) – Higher Returns –The investment bank posted better than expected quarterly results on the Top and bottom lines. The company reported better Wealth management and investment revenues to offset real estate holdings. The shares are up 1.5% ahead of the opening bell.



Time Warner (TWX) –Rejected! – The entertainment behemoth rejected a buyout attempt by 21stCentury Fox (FOXA) and Rupert Murdoch. The price is too low according to many analysts as they begin their late migration of upgrades to (TWX) shares. The stock is up $1 ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Housing Starts

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:35 pm CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/17:

Before Market:  AAL, AN, BHI, BAX, CY, FITB, KEY, MAT, MS, NVS, PM, PPG, SAP, SHW

After Market:  AMD, ATHN, COF, GOOG/GOOGL, IBM, SLB, STX, SYK





Friday – 7/18:

Before Market:  BK, FHN, GE, HON, JCI, VFC

After Market:  N/A
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-7-18 09:00

帖子更新好快
顶上去
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-18 09:11

7/18/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are suggesting a relatively quiet but slightly higher open as investors remain wary following yesterday’s geopolitical events. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX/SPY) fell over 1% on Thursday, which was its biggest one-day fall since the beginning of April. Earnings continue to roll out, with some of the country’s bellwethers reporting last night and this morning. Investors remain optimistic about American companies, but they also believe that world events could trump even the best earnings reports. Investors will be watching the headlines for updates about the Malaysian jet that crashed yesterday, and Israel's ground invasion of Gaza. Option volatility spiked higher on the sell-off yesterday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 32% and broke through levels not seen since the beginning of May.  



The Risk-Off trade was popular yesterday as investors sought the safety of U.S. Treasuries. He 10-year yield fell to the 2.47% level and may see more downward pressure if the geopolitical turmoil continues. Despite the global issues, overseas markets were relatively mixed as market risk increases. The U.S. calendar is thin today. Earnings news will be of interest with General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON) and VF Corp (VFC). Economic data due is the preliminary read on July consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan and June leading indicators. Next week's calendar includes CPI, housing data, PMI, and durable orders.



Stock Stories:

Google (GOOG/GOOGL) – Rally? –The internet leader posted better than expected quarterly results on the Top line but missed on EPS. The company saw cost-per-clicks down but analysts are still raising target prices. The shares are up 2.5% ahead of the opening bell.



General Electric (GE) –Mixed –  The Blue Chip company reported in-line EPS and a beat on Revenue this morning. The CEO stated that their environment continues to be generally positive as economic conditions improve. The stock is flat in the premarket.



Major Economic Reports:

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 7/18:

Before Market:  BK, FHN, GE, HON, JCI, VFC

After Market:  N/A





Monday – 7/12:

Before Market:  BBT, HAL, HAS, MAN, STI

After Market:  BCC, CMG, NFLX, TXN, ZION
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-7-18 09:44

月饼ＭＭ　辛苦了
谢谢
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-20 20:25

July 20, 2014

Stocks once again were ‘bought on a dip’ after a mid-week decline this past week. Upbeat earnings data trumped geopolitical concerns throughout July monthly expiration week for equities. A downed passenger flight over the Russian-controlled section of Ukraine brought fear into the markets but was once again just a bump to the higher trending stock market. Economic data was mixed this past week but modest inflation and slow growth seem to have investors in a positive frame of mind. Many are predicting a correction or pull-back in equities but the fundamental picture at the corporate level still looks healthy, and that causes economists to think that equity markets could continue their upward march in the U.S. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) both finished the week relatively flat.  The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) led stocks almost up 1% but the small caps (RUT) finished the week down 0.7%. The small-caps continue to under-perform the overall market and often are viewed as a gauge of the stock market’s appetite for risk. The width between the Blue-Chips and the small caps continues to widen but should eventually correct at some point in the near-term.



Option Volatility spiked on Thursday this past week after the Malaysian Jet was shot down. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped above the $15 level for the first time since the end of April on Thursday. The ‘Fear Gauge’ quickly gave back the gains on Friday as equities rose throughout the session. It is surprising how many risks are evident globally and domestically but downside risk seems to be ignored. A low interest rate environment and an accommodative stance by the Fed continue to provide an avenue for the move into riskier assets such as stocks. Despite this, we have been in the markets for too long to ignore the risks and similarities to the downturns from the mid-nineties, the tech bubble of 2000 and the housing-induced recession from 2007.



Treasury yields ended the week down slightly as bond purchases remained strong. The 10-year Note yield slipped below the 2.5% threshold on Thursday on the equity sell-off as the demand for the safety of U.S. treasuries exploded. Although stocks continue to trade near all-time highs, demand for Bonds continues to rise. This trend may continue as the U.S. is still the favorite of investor’s world-wide as our markets are stable and growth is slowly rising.



With a relatively light economic schedule this week, the focus is will be on earnings and Housing data.  146 companies in the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) deliver second quarter results this upcoming week. 72% of the companies that already reported have beaten consensus forecasts. What many forget while reporting these figures are the reduced expectations that surface ahead of the results. Housing has lagged other sectors during the recovery and they should provide some potential volatility this week if they continue to disappoint.   


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – AGN, BBT, HAL, HAS, MAN, STI

P.M. - BCC, CMG, NFLX, TXN, ZION



Tuesday:

A.M. – ACI, AMTD, BTU, KO, CMCSA, CS, DPZ, HOG, IR, KMB, LXK, LMT, MCD, MO, RF, STT, TRV, UTX, VZ

P.M.-  AAPL, BRCM, DFS, EA, ISRG, JNPR, MSFT, UIS, VMW, XLNX



Wednesday:

A.M. – BIIB, BA, DAL, DOW, EMC, FCX, GD, JNS, NSC, NOC, OC, PEP, PX, RAI, SPG, TMO

P.M. – ANGI, CA, CRUS, CTXS, FFIV, FB, FIO, GILD, MBFI, QCOM, RJF, T, TER, TEX, TSCO, TRIP



Thursday:

A.M. – BSX, BMY, COG, CAJ, CAT, CELG, CNX, DHI, DAN, DPS, DNKN, LLY, F, GM, HSY, JBLU, KKR, NOK, NUE, POT, RTN, LUV, HOT, SVU, UAL, UA, UNP, USG

P.M. – ALTR, AMZN, BIDU, ELY, CB, CLF, DECK, KLAC, NTGR, OLN, P, PFG, RVBD, SBUX, TSRO, UHS, VRSN



Friday:

A.M. – AON, COV, MCO, SWK, VTR, WHR, XRX



Economic Releases (7/21-7/25):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed Activity Index

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT– Consumer Price Index (CPI)

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index Flash

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-21 09:06

7/21/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a lower open as Israel steps up its ground offensive in Gaza. Also worrying investors is increased tension between Western leaders and Russia, in the wake of new evidence showing that the missile used to shoot down the Malaysian jet was Russian. Investors will be watching an avalanche of earnings this week, as 146 of the S&P 500 companies report quarterly results. Equities continue to shake off any negative catalyst but they may be due for a correction at some point. Option volatility is reflecting the upward trending direction in stocks as it remains at low levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finished last week flat but did see some spikes higher on the geopolitical news.  



Treasuries are relatively flat in quiet trading. Geopolitics are keeping the markets cautious but aren't adding to ‘risk off’ trades which were in favor last week. The 10-year note is holding just under 2.50%. Overseas action was weak as most stock markets are lower. The Bundesbank estimated German growth stagnated in Q2 in its monthly report, and June PPI inflation nudged higher. There wasn't much data overnight and the U.S. calendar is empty except for the Chicago Fed Activity Index.  Earnings news will highlight today with Netflix (NFLX) and Chipolte (CMG) after the close, with plenty of Blue chips reporting later this week. Data over the rest of the week includes June CPI, June existing home sales, June new home sales, initial jobless claims, and June durable goods.



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) – Forecasting –The tech product maker gets two more positive releases today as an upgrade and price target raise has the stock up in the pre-market. Despite the lack of a new product recently, analysts believe that the company will beat estimates when it releases quarterly results tomorrow after the close.



Halliburton (HAL) –Pumping up –  The oil services company posted in-line EPS this morning but did beat on its top-line Revenue estimates. The company increased its share repurchase authorization and see improving activity levels in North America. The stock is up  over 1% in the premarket.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed Activity Index



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 7/21:

Before Market:  AGN, BBT, HAL, HAS, MAN, STI

After Market:  BCC, CMG, NFLX, TXN, ZION



Tuesday – 7/22:

Before Market:  ACI, AMTD, BTU, KO, CMCSA, CS, DPZ, HOG, IR, KMB, LXK, LMT, MCD, MO, RF, STT, TRV, UTX, VZ

After Market:  AAPL, BRCM, DFS, EA, ISRG, JNPR, MSFT, UIS, VMW, XLNX
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-7-21 09:09

thanks
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-22 08:56

7/22/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open after Monday saw modest losses. Positive quarterly earnings are propping up equities despite the ongoing geopolitical turmoil in Gaza and Ukraine. Investors face a busy day on the economic data and corporate front, with numerous Blue Chip companies set to report quarterly results. The highlight of today’s economic news is a report on June inflation in the form of the CPI. Option volatility rose modestly yesterday on the heels of small losses for stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) should fall back to its recent support level at $12 today if equities remain higher.  



‘Risk-On’ momentum may be in favor today as Treasuries are lower ahead of the stock open. Demand for bonds is still strong and trending higher despite the gains in stocks. The 10-year note is down near the 2.48% level and continues to be under pressure on the Treasury strength. Overseas action was positive as both Asian and European markets are higher in tandem with gains in the U.S. Also on tap are existing home sales, the Richmond Fed index, May home prices from the FHFA, and weekly chain store sales, which were down slightly. More earnings news is out today, joining a heavy list for the week. Highlighting are Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), McDonald's (MCD), Coca-Cola (KO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Verizon (VZ).



Stock Stories:

Netflix (NFLX) – Streaming – The internet streaming company reported generally in-line results last night although profits did expand. Expansion to other countries lowered forward estimates but international growth is the company’s focus. The shares are up only slightly in the pre-market but the option market had priced in a move of over 6%.



Chipotle (CMG) –I’m calling it!–  The ‘Gourmet’ Burrito chain posted another quarter of better than expected earnings last night after the close. The company continues its meteoric growth rise but valuations are getting lofty. The stock is up 10% in the premarket, which is above the expected 6% move.



Major Economic Reports:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – Down 0.4%

7:30 am CT– Consumer Price Index (CPI)

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 7/22:

Before Market:  ACI, AMTD, BTU, KO, CMCSA, CS, DPZ, HOG, IR, KMB, LXK, LMT, MCD, MO, RF, STT, TRV, UTX, VZ

After Market:  AAPL, BRCM, DFS, EA, ISRG, JNPR, MSFT, UIS, VMW, XLNX



Wednesday – 7/23:

Before Market:  BIIB, BA, DAL, DOW, EMC, FCX, GD, JNS, NSC, NOC, OC, PEP, PX, RAI, SPG, TMO

After Market:  ANGI, CA, CRUS, CTXS, FFIV, FB, FIO, GILD, MBFI, QCOM, RJF, T, TER, TEX, TSCO, TRIP
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-23 09:12

7/23/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are indicating yet another open higher after yesterday’s strong close thanks to more positive quarterly data from powerhouses Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) among others.  The S&P 500 appears determined to breach the key 2,000 level at some point in the near future in light of mounting tension in both Ukraine and Gaza continually being downplayed by investors.



Earnings will likely continue to be the main focus today as economic data will remain muted until tomorrow’s weekly unemployment claims with the exception of today’s MBA mortgage applications report.  Names like Facebook (FB) and Qualcomm (QCOM) will be watched closely after the bell to validate the recent momentum higher.



Hong Kong stocks closed at a fresh new yearly high overnight as property values continue to soar.  The European front sees The FTSE 100 index touching a two-week high today in response to the Bank of England vote to unanimously keep the lending rate at a record low 0.5 percent.

Gold Futures (/GC) are catching a bid this morning as prices remain firm above $1300 likely in reaction to the ongoing tensions oversees.  The rate on the 10-year treasury note is little changed at 2.46 percent.



Stock Stories:

Boeing (BA) –Lift Off!– The aeronautical juggernaut  easily topped wall street estimates this morning off pent-up demand for passenger airliners.  The company also bumped guidance for the year which has sent shares higher pre-market.  



McDonalds (MCD) Not so happy Meal! - The global fast food chain is trading lower pre-market after a fresh downgrade this morning.  Several reports have recently surfaced of expired meat being used by multiple companies in Asian markets which has rattled investor confidence in the entire space.



Major Economic Reports:



Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Notable Earnings:



Wednesday – 7/23:



Before Market: BIIB, BA, DAL, DOW, EMC, FCX, GD, JNS, NSC, NOC, OC, PEP, PX, RAI, SPG, TMO



After Market: ANGI, CA, CRUS, CTXS, FFIV, FB, FIO, GILD, MBFI, QCOM, RJF, T, TER, TEX, TSCO, TRIP



Thursday – 7/24:



Before Market:BSX, BMY, COG, CAJ, CAT, CELG, CNX, DHI, DAN, DPS, DNKN, LLY, F, GM, HSY, JBLU, KKR, NOK, NUE, POT, RTN, LUV, HOT, SVU, UAL, UA, UNP, USG



After Market:  ALTR, AMZN, BIDU, ELY, CB, CLF, DECK, KLAC, NTGR, OLN, P, PFG, RVBD,SBUX, TSRO, UHS, VRSN
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-7-23 09:16

谢谢月饼ＭＭ
你有没有ＦＢ？
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-24 08:31

才看见。。。
亲太客气了
俺木有FB
回复 78# aimei
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-24 08:32

7/24/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open as geopolitical news takes a back-seat to better than expected corporate results. Positive results from FaceBook (FB) and Ford (F) are helping stocks rise in the pre-market. We saw modest gains yesterday for equities and the grind higher to more record levels continues. Option volatility fell yesterday on the heels of gains for stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at extremely low levels again and should be under more pressure if stocks stay positive today. Although many are calling for a correction or a pull-back for equities, a positive trending market can last much longer than expected if downside catalysts are ignored.



Bonds are lower as stronger than expected PMIs propelled a pick-up in risk appetite. China's manufacturing index spiked to 52.0, while the Euro-zone index rose to 51.9, with the services index bouncing to 54.4. The 10-year Treasury yield is up slightly to 2.48%. Today's U.S. calendar includes the July Markit manufacturing report, along with June new home sales and weekly initial jobless claims. Housing data is underperforming but seems to be the only sector in flux at this point. The earnings calendar remains very heavy and includes Amazon.com (AMZN), Visa (V) and Starbucks (SBUX) after the close today.



Stock Stories:

Facebook (FB) – Liked?! – The social media company posted better than expected quarterly results last night after the close. The company stated mobile ad revenue increased but client click-through numbers are not positive. The shares are up 8.8% in the pre-market but the option market had priced in a move of only 6%.



General Motors (GM) –Recall - The automaker posted worse than expected earnings this morning and announced more charges due to recalls. The stock continues to trade in a higher trend despite the continued miss-steps by the company. The stock is down over 2% in the premarket.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index Flash

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/24:

Before Market:  BSX, BMY, COG, CAJ, CAT, CELG, CNX, DHI, DAN, DPS, DNKN, LLY, F, GM, HSY, JBLU, KKR, NOK, NUE, POT, RTN, LUV, HOT, SVU, UAL, UA, UNP, USG

After Market:  ALTR, AMZN, BIDU, ELY, CB, CLF, DECK, KLAC, NTGR, OLN, P, PFG, RVBD, SBUX, TSRO, UHS, VRSN



Friday – 7/25:

Before Market: AON, COV, MCO, SWK, VTR, WHR, XRX

After Market:  N/A
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-25 09:32

7/25/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are projecting a weaker open to end the trading week following Europe’s  lead lower.  Germany’s negative business confidence survey validated concerns that the prolonged Russian conflict is starting to take its toll on Europe’s largest economy especially after a new round of sanctions are being debated.  The EURO is now hovering near an eight month low as a result.  Asia tells a different story however with the Shanghai Composite lifting an additional 1% overnight to reach a new three-month high.



The U.S. Durable Goods report at 7:30 CT is the only piece of economic news scheduled today.  A reversal from May’s negative number is expected to show a .6% increase in the month of June.  This critical number is considered by economists as a leading indicator for production.  Earnings continue to dominate headlines with almost half of the S&P 500 components already reporting.  Up to this point 77% of all companies comprising the index have beaten 2nd quarter projections.



The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains stable near $11.84 as no new material developments have evolved in the various geo-political hotspots over the past several days.  The 10 year treasury saw an uptick in yield yesterday back above 2.5% as the S&P 500 notched yet another all-time high as it attempts to reach the coveted 2000 mark.  



Stock Stories:



Amazon (AMZN) –– Shopping Spree?   The world’s largest online retailer has trimmed 10% off yesterday’s closing stock price after losing $126 million for the quarter which was twice the expectation. Expenses also jumped 24% during the same period creating doubts in the business model.  New Analyst downgrades are putting additional pressure on the stock pre-market as the numbers are being scrutinized.



Pandora (P) Turn the Music down!- Pandora saw listening hours drop significantly during the previous quarter and came in shy of analyst expectations with a tough competitive environment.  Content prices continue to soar which continues to hurt the bottom line.  Shares are down sharply in pre-market as a result.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders



Notable Earnings:

Pre-market  – AON, COV, MCO, SWK, VTR, WHR, XRX

After-market  – N/A
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-27 16:56

July 27, 2014 Weekend Update

Stocks were mixed this past week. Economic growth currently is very mixed by sector and equities are reflecting this. Markets were down strong to start the week as geopolitical concerns in Gaza and Ukraine were escalating. Strong corporate earnings quickly took care of the dip as companies continue to mostly beat expectations. Weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February which may forecast good jobs data due this week for July.  The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was flat and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led stocks finishing up 0.4%.  The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) led stocks down finishing off 0.8% and the small caps (RUT) finished the week down 0.6%. All major indices are up on the year except the small caps (RUT), which is down by 1.6%.



Option Volatility rose modestly this week but remains at extremely low levels despite the global risks for stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) increased by 5% but is still below the $13 level. If corporate results remain strong and the economic data continues to out-perform, we could see stocks hit another round of all-time highs this week. This in turn would once again send option volatility lower.



Treasury yields ended the week relatively flat. The 10-year Note yield traded at its lowest yield since May on Wednesday this past week. Although stocks continue to trade near all-time highs, demand for Bonds continues to rise. Typically we might see stocks rise and demand for Treasuries fall, but they have risen in tandem recently.  The FOMC meets this week also with an announcement on interest rates Wednesday. We have seen some big swings in Treasuries after recent meeting so more of the same may be in order.



This week's highlight is the Jobs report for July on Friday. With recent declines in jobless claims, payroll growth may strengthen. Early in the week, the advance estimate for second quarter GDP will indicate how much of a rebound there was after weather was blamed for weak first quarter growth. The consumer sector is supporting economic growth, just behind manufacturing but housing continues to lag. The personal income report will indicate how much the consumer has for spending. The first reading on consumer spending in the third quarter posts, which have been healthy. Earnings season is in full swing and there are some major reports again this upcoming week.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – CMI, FTK, SOHU, TEN, TSN

P.M. – GGP, HLF, JEC, MAS, RRC, SU



Tuesday:

A.M. – AET, AKS, ACI, GLW, ETN, ITW, IP, MMC, MRK, NOV, PCAR, RAI, SIRI, UBS, UPS, WM

P.M.-  AXP, AMGN, APC, BWLD, CHRW, EW, ESRX, FISV, GNW, MAR, PNRA, TWTR, X,



Wednesday:

A.M. – AMT, D, GRMN, GT, HES, HUM, LO, SODA, SO, S, VLO

P.M. – AKAM, ALL, HIG, KRFT, MET, NE, OI, ROVI, WDC, WFM, YELP



Thursday:

A.M. – APA, BUD, BZH, CHTR, CI, CME, CL, DDD,  DLPH, EXC, GG, K, MA, MCK, MOS, NI, OXY, TMUS, TWC, VRX, VIA, XOM

P.M. – AFFX, EXPE, FLR, LNKD, SPWR, SWN, TSLA, WYNN



Friday:

A.M. – CBOE, CLX, HLT, KCG, PG, RBS, WY



Economic Releases (7/28-8/1):

Monday:

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

FOMC Meeting Begins

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

8:00 am CT– S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

7:30 am CT – GDP

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Employment Cost Index

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Jobs Data

7:30 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– Construction Spending
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-28 09:04

7/28/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower to start the week. The market will try to get back to its winning ways after stocks declined modestly on Friday, partly due to geopolitical events in Russia and Israel. There were also some earnings disappointments at the end of last week, and a downgrade by Goldman Sachs on their short-term outlook on equities. In addition to another heavy week of earnings, investors will be gearing up for the monthly jobs report that is scheduled to be released on Friday. Decreasing Weekly jobless claims could be forecasting a good jobs number this week. This would most likely continue our rally for equities and send the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to even lower levels.  



Bonds are little changed to lower as the market unwinds Friday's flight to quality trades and sets up for upcoming supply through auctions. This is in contrast to small gains in most overseas bond markets. Meanwhile, global equities are mostly lower ahead of a very busy week of events and data that includes the FOMC meeting, the first look at Q2 GDP along with non-farm payrolls for July. There also is heavy supply and plethora of earnings announcements. For today, The Treasury sells $29 B in 2-year notes. Data includes the flash Markit PMI services numbers for July, June pending home sales, and the Dallas Fed index for July.



Stock Stories:

Family Dollar (FDO) – Cheap? – The retailer Dollar Tree (DLTR) is going acquire Family Dollar for $74.50 per share in cash, stock. The transaction will create a discount retailer in North America based on number of store locations, operating more than 13,000 stores in 48 states and Canada, with sales exceeding $18B. FDO shares are up 24% ahead of the opening bell and DLTR is higher by 7%.



Cummins Inc. (CMI) –Still driving - The engine-maker posted better than expected earnings this morning. The company also announced an increase in revenue guidance due largely to improving demand in North America. The stock is down slightly in the premarket.



Major Economic Reports:

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction results



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 7/28:

Before Market:  CMI, FTK, SOHU, TEN, TSN

After Market:  GGP, HLF, JEC, MAS, RRC, SU



Tuesday – 7/29:

Before Market: AET, AKS, ACI, GLW, ETN, ITW, IP, MMC, MRK, NOV, PCAR, RAI, SIRI, UBS, UPS, WM

After Market:  AXP, AMGN, APC, BWLD, CHRW, EW, ESRX, FISV, GNW, MAR, PNRA, TWTR, X
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-29 11:13

sorry, I am occupied this morning...

7/29/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting a slightly higher open for the broader market. Another round of solid earnings reports last night and the stabilization of the Russian stock market have made investors more comfortable about buying stocks. Monday’s session began with a nice sell-off, but once again the Bulls came in and bought the dip. Option volatility had a nice spike early on but reversed into the close. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped above $13 yesterday but slid back towards recent support near $12 by the end of the day.  



Treasuries are higher with the long end continuing to out-perform Notes. The 10-year note is modestly lower and remains below 2.5%. Gains in European bond markets amid further geopolitical risks with calls for harsher sanctions on Russia also supported demand for Treasuries. There were also renewed concerns over Portugal's banking sector. The FOMC meeting begins today but no surprises are expected with tomorrow's policy announcement. The Treasury auctions $35 B in 5-year notes this afternoon. As for data, July consumer confidence, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, and weekly chain store sales are due. Earnings news includes Twitter (TWTR), Merck (MRK), and Amgen (AMGN) after the close.



Stock Stories:

Herbalife (HLF) – Pyramid slide – The alleged pyramid scheme multi-level marketing company posted weaker than expected quarterly results last night.  HLF shares are down by 11% ahead of the opening bell but option markets were expecting a move of only 6% after the report.



Pfizer (PFE) –Feeling better - The pharmaceutical giant posted better than expected earnings this morning as it beat on EPS and Revenue estimates. Growth is steady globally and they will continue to buy back shares this year. The stock is up slightly in the premarket.



Major Economic Reports:

FOMC Meeting Begins

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – Up 0.2%

8:00 am CT– S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 7/29:

Before Market:  AET, AKS, ACI, GLW, ETN, ITW, IP, MMC, MRK, NOV, PCAR, RAI, SIRI, UBS, UPS, WM

After Market:  AXP, AMGN, APC, BWLD, CHRW, EW, ESRX, FISV, GNW, MAR, PNRA, TWTR, X


Wednesday – 7/30:

Before Market: AMT, D, GRMN, GT, HES, HUM, LO, SODA, SO, S, VLO

After Market:  AKAM, ALL, HIG, KRFT, MET, NE, OI, ROVI, WDC, WFM, YELP
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-7-29 11:17

thanks
no sorry
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-30 08:47

7/30/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open as investors digest the latest round of earnings reports. Yesterday saw modest losses as geopolitical concerns favored the Bears into the close. By all metrics, investors have to be pleased with the earnings season as reports continue to come in above expectations. Investors will continue to keep an eye on the Fed which concludes its two day FOMC meeting this afternoon. Investors will also be reacting to jobs data today, as the ADP Employment Change report will give us a forecast to Friday’s Government Jobs data. Option volatility rose on Tuesday’s downturn in stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped above $13 yesterday but should fall if equities remain in positive territory.



Treasuries dipped slightly lower overnight, with the 10-year yield holding just under 2.50%. Global bonds were mostly lower too, while stocks were mixed overnight and didn't provide any strong direction. Japanese production dropped in June more than expected, as was German and Spanish inflation. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone ESI confidence index was stronger than expected and ECB lending data showed credit standards eased for the first time since in seven years. The FOMC decision this afternoon highlights today's U.S. calendar, though no surprises are expected. Data will be of interest with the Advance Q2 GDP report and ADP private payrolls due. The MBA reported mortgage applications dropped 2.2% for the week and continues to reflect the weak housing sector. The Treasury sells $29 B in 7-year notes to complete this week's auctions.



Stock Stories:

Twitter (TWTR) – Tweeted – The social media company posted better than expected earnings after the close last evening.  The company continues to execute on monetizing its mobile advertising. TWTR shares are up by 27% ahead of the opening bell but option markets were expecting a move of only 10% after the report.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 2.2% for week

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

7:30 am CT – GDP

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 7/30:

Before Market:  AMT, D, GRMN, GT, HES, HUM, LO, SODA, SO, S, VLO

After Market:  AKAM, ALL, HIG, KRFT, MET, NE, OI, ROVI, WDC, WFM, YELP



Thursday – 7/31:

Before Market: APA, BUD, BZH, CHTR, CI, CME, CL, DDD,  DLPH, EXC, GG, K, MA, MCK, MOS, NI, OXY, TMUS, TWC, VRX, VIA, XOM

After Market:  AFFX, EXPE, FLR, LNKD, SPWR, SWN, TSLA, WYNN
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-7-31 08:19

7/31/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a lower open after investors had a chance to digest the GDP data and Fed statement from yesterday. The GDP increase was higher than expected and Q1 was revised up from weather-related lows. Some are predicting that the better than expected number may cause the Fed to begin tightening sooner than expected. Geopolitical concerns are also present and putting pressure on global markets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is now firmly back above $13 and should continue higher if stocks remain in the red today. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is showing signs of strength after bouncing off support near $12 once again.



Treasuries are lower again this morning after falling sharply yesterday. The 10-year yield is back above 2.50% and may test 2.6% today. The Fed statement yesterday basically ignored the positive economic data but traders are getting behind the thought that interest rates should rise sooner than planned. Asian stocks were higher but European markets were lower in tandem with the U.S. Data will be of interest with Weekly Jobless Claims and the Chicago PMI leading the news. Earnings of note after the bell include reports from LinkedIn (LNKD) and Tesla motors (TSLA).



Stock Stories:

Whole Foods (WFM) – Bag it – The natural grocer announced quarterly results yesterday after the bell, which beat analyst expectations. The company also announced a $1B share repurchase plan. WFM shares are off almost 4% ahead of the opening bell as analyst downgrades are negatively affecting the stock this morning.



Yelp (YELP) – reviewed – The online review site posted an earnings beat last night after the close. Despite the beat, whisper numbers were higher as the stock is lower by 5% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Employment Cost Index

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/31:

Before Market:  APA, BUD, BZH, CHTR, CI, CME, CL, DDD,  DLPH, EXC, GG, K, MA, MCK, MOS, NI, OXY, TMUS, TWC, VRX, VIA, XOM

After Market:  AFFX, EXPE, FLR, LNKD, SPWR, SWN, TSLA



Friday – 8/1:

Before Market: CBOE, CLX, HLT, KCG, PG, RBS, WY

After Market:  N/A
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-7-31 08:58

大佬　 LNKD,TSLA

谢谢月饼ＭＭ
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-8-1 08:57

Aimei大大，太客气了。。。

8/01/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are coming into more selling pressure this morning after yesterday’s 2% route to finish out the month of July lower.  Investors are on edge after an unexpected rise in labor costs sparked fresh fears of inflation and the reality of an eventual rate increase that markets have discounted for some time.  Today’s jobs report at 7:30 will likely set the tone for the next major pivot. Ironically, a better than expected jobs number of 235,000 or unemployment rate of less than 6% may actually spell bad news for the markets because of the implication that the Feds will begin to assume a much more passive role in the free market system going forward.  Any big miss may likely validate their accommodative stance for the foreseeable future.



Surprisingly,  Gold (/GC) has remained in a tight range near $1285 even with the VIX spiking 27% in yesterday’s session as traders scrambled to buy protection.  Bond prices capped a monthly loss after the 10 year note closed at 2.56% in response to the equity markets slide.  Earnings will continue to play out over the next few weeks but will likely become more isolated as several key names have already set the tone for expectations. A Geo-political breakthrough may also benefit the market  with a  72 hour cease-fire agreement currently in place between Gaza and Israel as hopes of a longer term resolution begin to take shape.



Stock Stories:

Exxon Mobile (XOM) – Dry Well?    The global energy leader reported significant declines in production yesterday which are the lowest since 2009.  The company has been slow to participate in the domestic oil shale boom which has benefited competitors while chasing other projects in several remote regions around the globe.  Shares were down 4% yesterday as a result.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Jobs Data

7:30 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– Construction Spending



Notable Earnings:

Friday – 8/1:

Before Market: CBOE, CLX, HLT, KCG, PG, RBS, WY

After Market:N/A
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-8-3 13:51

August 2, 2014

Stocks ended the week down sharply despite the Fed maintaining its loose monetary policy. The week began quietly, mixed and little changed for the most part. Geopolitical problems in Gaza and Ukraine and weaker pending home sales data weighed on stocks. New sanctions on Russia also put pressure on equities. The Fed's Wednesday afternoon policy announcement was seen as continuing easy monetary policy for a "considerable" period after the end of taper. Also, earlier that day, a better-than-expected advance estimate for second quarter GDP was seen as favorable. Stocks dropped sharply Thursday with no one reason being the driver. Traders began to take the view that the Fed may raise policy rates sooner than earlier believed after the positive GDP number. There were also worries about Argentine debt as that country could not reach an agreement with bondholders and defaulted late Wednesday. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down 2.7% for the week and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) was off 2.2%.  The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) fell 2.8% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) finished the week down 2.6%.



Option Volatility spike higher this week on the losses in stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) increased by 34% albeit from extremely low levels. The ‘Fear Gauge’ closed above the $17 level for the first time in almost four months. The downturn in stocks feels different this time because ‘buyers on the dips’ were non-existent to end the week. Option premium rose sharply and it is beginning to create some better opportunities for our strategies. .



Rates on Treasuries ended the week mixed but with modest gains for the week. On Monday, yields nudged up despite a disappointing pending home sales report. Tuesday, rates eased marginally on modest flight to safety after the European Union and the U.S. added new sanctions against Russia for supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine. Rates rose notably at mid-week after a strong report on second quarter GDP. Treasury yields were little changed Thursday ahead of the Friday jobs report and they finished the week falling after the payroll jobs number for July came in below expectations.



The economy appears to be poised for decent growth for the rest of the year. The consumer and manufacturing sectors are healthy but housing is still mixed. Fed policy rates are likely to remain below historical averages for a considerable period according to the statement but they may not have taken into account the GDP number before it was released. There is a light schedule for economic data this upcoming week but the standouts are factory orders, international trade, and initial jobless claims. Earnings season is winding down but about 70% of reports have been higher than expected as corporations continue to out-perform. Look for the open of stock futures (/ES) on Sunday night at 5 pm CT for clues on market direction into next week.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – CAH, CAN, L, KORS

P.M. – AIG, CAR, CKP, MRO, THC, VVUS,



Tuesday:

A.M. – ADM, COH, CVS, EMR, FE, IFF, ISIS, MGM, MWW, ODP, REGN, VSI, VMC

P.M.-  ACAD, ATVI, ATHL, CLR, DIS, EOG, FEYE, FSLR, GRPN, PBPB, TTWO, Z, ZGNX



Wednesday:

A.M. – ANR, AOL, ARIA, CHK, CTS, DVN, DISH, FWLT, FOX, NUS, RL, SEP, TWX, VIAB

P.M. – AGU, ATML, CTL, CF, DYN, GMCR, MCP, RIG, SLF, SYMC, ZU



Thursday:

A.M. – CPK, CTB, DNDN, DUK, HSH, JASO, MYL, PBH, TM

P.M. – ALNY, CBS, ED, ELX, MBI, MNST, SCTY, ZNGA



Friday:

A.M. – AMRN, PGNX



Economic Releases (8/4 - 8/8):

Monday:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – International Trade

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Productivity & Costs

9:00 am CT– Wholesale Trade
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-8-4 08:24

8/4/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open as the market tries to rebound from its biggest weekly drop in more than two years. Last week the market endured one of its heaviest loads of news flow all year with a barrage of earnings reports, a large amount of economic data, the FOMC meeting, and geopolitical events in both Russia and Israel. Less economic data and fewer earnings reports will be released this week, and Israel has shown signs of slowing its offensive in Gaza, all of which is providing a lift to the futures in early trading. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finished last week up over 30% and settled above $17 for the first time since early April. Option premium expansion is finally picking up some steam but the ‘Fear Gauge’ should give some gains back today if we remain in positive territory.



Treasuries are relatively flat this morning. The 10-year yield is back above 2.50% and once again bounced off support at the 2.45% level last week. European markets are up modestly on Portugal's central bank announcement of a bailout of beleaguered Banco Espirito. Chinese stocks gained over 1.5% today but Japanese stocks have fallen sharply over the last few sessions, with financials and transporters leading the losses. Investors turned risk averse due to the last week's U.S. stock sell-off and concerns over Argentina's default and Portuguese banking problems. U.S. calendar is thin today with just the TD Ameritrade’s IMX reading on retail client sentiment.



Stock Stories:

Michael Kors (KORS) – Stay out of the Malls! – The high-end retailer posted better than expected earnings this morning. The company beat EPS estimates by 12% and top-line revenue also crushed expectations.  The company also raised FY15 estimates going forward. KORS shares are up over 3% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 8/4:

Before Market:  CAH, CAN, L, KORS

After Market:  AIG, CAR, CKP, MRO, THC, VVUS



Tuesday – 8/5:

Before Market: ADM, COH, CVS, EMR, FE, IFF, ISIS, MGM, MWW, ODP, REGN, VSI, VMC

After Market:  ACAD, ATVI, ATHL, CLR, DIS, EOG, FEYE, FSLR, GRPN, PBPB, TTWO, Z, ZGNX
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-8-5 08:33

8/5/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are lower this morning following yesterday’s moderate advance. Yesterday's gains came after the market last week suffered its biggest weekly loss in two years. Although the rally provided a break from four days of losses, weakness into the close showed that investors are still cautious. The latest cease fire between Israel and Hamas is holding, and investors will be watching to see if it continues to remain in place. Investors will also be examining several pieces of economic data today. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 11% yesterday on the positive move in stocks. Today’s negative tone should provide additional option premium if stocks remain in the red.



Treasuries are relatively flat again this morning. The 10-year yield is just below the 2.5% level and continues to consolidate near this level. Positive PMI readings overnight from the U.K. and Europe helped support equities and weigh on bonds although Euro-zone retail sales disappointed slightly. China's PMI was also a little weaker than expected. There's not a lot on today's U.S. slate to provide any new direction. PMI services report an ISM non-mfg. for July are the focal points, but may have little impact since the data follows the FOMC meeting and the key July jobs numbers.



Stock Stories:

American Intl. Group (AIG) – Covered – The insurer blew away estimates on its quarterly report yesterday after the close. The company beat EPS estimates by 19% and announced an additional share repurchase authorization of $2B.  AIG shares are up 2% ahead of the opening bell.



Coach (COH) – Put me in Coach! – The high-end retailer posted better than expected earnings this morning.  The company had seen a massive stock slide recently on lower sales and margins but they beat lowered expectations soundly. The shares are up 7% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – up 0.2% for week

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 8/5:

Before Market:  ADM, COH, CVS, EMR, FE, IFF, ISIS, MGM, MWW, ODP, REGN, VSI, VMC

After Market:  ACAD, ATVI, ATHL, CLR, DIS, EOG, FEYE, FSLR, GRPN, PBPB, TTWO, Z, ZGNX



Wednesday – 8/6:

Before Market: ANR, AOL, ARIA, CHK, CTS, DVN, DISH, FWLT, FOX, NUS, RL, SEP, TWX, VIAB

After Market:  AGU, ATML, CTL, CF, DYN, GMCR, MCP, RIG, SLF, SYMC, ZU
作者: aimei    时间: 2014-8-5 09:20

谢谢
这几个股票丫丫宝贝可能有，提醒一下
FEYE, FSLR, GRPN,
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-8-6 08:33

8/6/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are lower this morning following yesterday’s sharp decline. Yesterday's losses came after reports that Russia added troops and vehicles to the border with Ukraine. A Polish official also stated that Russia was amassing huge battalions in the region. Reports of sanctions by Russia to the Euro-Zone also had markets on edge. Weakness this morning is being attributed to the geopolitical concerns and negative economic data out of Europe. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 12% yesterday on the sell-off in stocks. We should see more upside pressure in the ‘Fear Gauge’ today if losses continue to mount for equities. Key technical levels were breached on the downside for stocks yesterday, which could also add to the negative tone for markets.



Treasuries have caught a bid this morning and are adding to yesterday’s gains. Bonds saw a sharp reversal higher yesterday afternoon after trading in the red for most of the morning. The 10-year yield is now firmly below the 2.5% level and may hit levels last seen in June near 2.4%. Asian markets were lower overnight following losses in the U.S. yesterday. Europe’s economy may provide extra tension for Wall Street today. Stock futures pushed into the red after news that Italy unexpectedly fell back into recession in the second quarter, as its gross domestic product shrank. There's not a lot on today's U.S. slate to provide any new direction.



Stock Stories:

Disney (DIS) – UnFrozen – The entertainment giant posted better than expected results on its quarterly report yesterday after the close. The company saw profits and revenue increase on the heels of its movie Frozen and ESPN’s World Cup coverage.  DIS shares are flat ahead of the opening bell but spiked higher in the post-market yesterday.



First Solar (FSLR) –Charged – The solar company posted a mixed earnings report after the close yesterday.  Although the business is strong and growing, it takes a forensic accountant to figure out all the charges and fiscal maneuvering reported. The shares are down a few percent in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – International Trade

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 8/6:

Before Market:  ANR, AOL, ARIA, CHK, CTS, DVN, DISH, FWLT, FOX, NUS, RL, SEP, TWX, VIAB

After Market:  AGU, ATML, CTL, CF, DYN, GMCR, MCP, RIG, SLF, SYMC, ZU



Thursday – 8/7:

Before Market: CPK, CTB, DNDN, DUK, HSH, JASO, MYL, PBH, TM

After Market:  ALNY, CBS, ED, ELX, MBI, MNST, SCTY, ZNGA
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-8-7 08:20

8/7/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting a slight bounce for the broader market as investors prepare for the weekly jobless claims data. There are expected to be 304K initial claims after last week’s unexpected rise. Stocks dumped early yesterday but bounced and finished the session slightly positive. Investors ignored Russian President Putin’ comments after he fired back at Western sanctions on Wednesday, ordering bans on imports of food and other products from countries that imposed the restrictions.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell slightly yesterday on retrace from lows in stocks. We have seen quite a bit of movement in the ‘Fear Gauge’ recently but it remains relatively low considering all the global risks that are present.



Treasury yields are lower again, in tandem with bond rallies overseas as stocks are mostly lower. Weaker than expected German production was one cause for the drop in the Euro-Zone markets. Geopolitical tensions and Russian sanctions also are keeping a bid in the safety of bonds. The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided this morning that interest rates will remain unchanged. The deposit rate will also remain the same which is still negative 0.10%. The Bank of England also maintained a steady stance in its policy decision. ECB President Drahgi will make comments in a news conference this morning which may rattle markets. The U.S. data slate is light with just initial jobless claims for the week ended August 9.



Stock Stories:

Keurig Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) – Steamed – The single serve coffee maker posted better than expected EPS numbers but missed on top-line revenue estimates. The company raised FY14 but GMCR shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 8/7:

Before Market:  CPK, CTB, DNDN, DUK, HSH, JASO, MYL, PBH, TM

After Market:  ALNY, CBS, ED, ELX, MBI, MNST, SCTY, ZNGA



Friday – 8/8:

Before Market: AMRN, PGNX

After Market:  N/A
作者: 我想飞    时间: 2014-8-7 09:00

蟹蟹~~
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-8-8 08:32

8/8/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) were deep in negative territory but have roared back over the last hour and are now positive. Reports that Russia is attempting to De-escalate the conflict in Ukraine have turned stocks higher. President Obama has authorized air strikes In Iraq but has vowed not to deploy ground troops to fight rebels there. The market sold off yesterday afternoon as investors speculated that the U.S. military would become involved in the country. The turmoil in Ukraine still has traders on edge as Russia beefed up it rhetoric against the West yesterday. Earnings continue to roll out, and investors will be watching the wholesale inventory report as well as headlines coming out of the Middle East and Russia. Oil (/CL) and Gold (/GC) prices are also higher while global stock markets are selling off and equity market volatility jumps higher.



The flight to safety continued to put a bid in bonds with the 10-year Treasury yield outperforming and dropping below 2.4%. President Obama's approval of potential limited air strikes in Iraq led to risk off sentiment globally. Japan's Nikkei led global equities lower with a near 3% drop after the Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, as expected, but noted some weakness in exports. Russian sanctions continue to weigh on investor sentiment in the Euro-zone, and Germany in particular. Bullish momentum, technical, and a dangerous world heading into the weekend should keep Treasury gains intact. There shouldn't be much impact from today's limited calendar that includes Q2 productivity and wholesale trade. Rather, traders will be keeping an eye on geopolitics and overseas markets, as well as looking ahead to economic data next week.



Stock Stories:

Lululemon (LULU) – No Pants – Lululemon Athletica announced that its founder Chip Wilson and Advent International have entered into an agreement under which Advent will acquire approximately 50% of Wilson’s ownership in the company, or approximately 13.85% of the company’s outstanding shares, for approximately $845M. LULU shares have been under pressure for almost a year but are up over 5% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Productivity & Costs

9:00 am CT– Wholesale Trade



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 8/8:

Before Market:  AMRN, PGNX

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 8/11:

Before Market:  DF, GOGO, HNR, PCLN, SYY

After Market:  AMBC, APP, CZR, NUAN, RAX, VTR
作者: 我想飞    时间: 2014-8-8 08:39

Thx. ICPT in the AH.
作者: 沁颍    时间: 2014-8-10 17:56

Weekend Update  August 10, 2014

Stocks ended the week up sharply on Friday despite the geopolitical risks evident across the globe. Markets swung violently this past week, mostly on news from overseas but U.S. news was mostly favorable. The U.S. economy appears to be in moderately healthy shape early into the third quarter and earnings are mostly positive. The past week started out positively on the Portugal bailout of its major bank but stocks quickly fell on escalation concerns in Russia and Ukraine. Russian bans on imports sent stocks lower on Thursday but reversed course sharply to end the week as rumors of a solution surfaced. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up a modest 0.3% for the week and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) gained 0.4%. The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was also up 0.4% while the small caps (RUT, IWM) led markets and finished up 1.5%.



The rollercoaster in equities this week provided some spotty spikes in option volatility but it eventually slid into the close on Friday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 7% for the week. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is firmly above the $15 level but any further upside move for stocks will quickly put a damper on our euphoria of increased option premium. Hopefully the news-driven markets will continue to provide more opportunities in our risk-defined strategies.



Treasury rates fell moderately this past week. Monday and Tuesday were relatively quiet but Yields dipped somewhat Wednesday on flight to safety over concerns regarding tensions in Ukraine and Gaza. The U.S., NATO, and Poland warned about the possibility of Russia sending troops into eastern Ukraine, which put a bid in on Bonds. Flight to safety continued Thursday and as soft economic growth was seen globally and they ended the week with a whimper as Friday saw flat action. We still feel the Treasury market will continue to lead the stock market direction in the near-term.



This week ahead has a variety of key releases after a week of minimal news. The two that stand out are manufacturing and the consumer sector, which has shown moderate renewed strength—especially with improvement in jobless claims. The proof will be in the pudding with retail sales for July which are released Wednesday. Markets may also move on Friday's consumer sentiment report. Also, though not expected, a high PPI figure could raise worries about early Fed tightening. The bottom line is that the economy has largely recovered from first quarter weakness and not just in the second quarter but also early third quarter. The Fed may need to marginally move ahead its policy rate plans according to many economists.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. –DF, GOGO, PCLN, SYY

P.M. – AMBC, APP, CZR, NUAN, RAX, VTR



Tuesday:

A.M. – CTIB, TW, VAL

P.M.-  CREE, FOSL, FTD, JDSU, KING, SYNC



Wednesday:

A.M. – CSIQ, DE, KATE, M, PF, SNE

P.M. – BGG, CSCO, NTAP, RMAX, SLW



Thursday:

A.M. – MANU, PRGO, PDO, RRGB, WMT

P.M. – A, ADSK, AMAT, CEP, DDS, JCP, JWN



Friday:

A.M. – EL



Economic Releases (8/11 - 8/15):

Monday:

N/A

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

8:45 am CT– JOLTS

12:00 pm CT – 3-Year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

8:05 am CT – Fed’s Dudley Speaks

8:20 am CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-Year Note Auction Results



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Import & Export Prices

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-Year Bond Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – PPI

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

8:00 am CT – Treasury Intl. Capital

8:15 am CT– Industrial Production

8:55 am CT– Consumer Sentiment

9:45 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks
作者: vegetable8    时间: 2014-8-10 18:06

回复 99# mooncake

怎么没有 sina ? 不是 Thursday?



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