标题: [转贴] Market blog [打印本页] 作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-12-29 09:56 标题: Market blog
赌ER的同学，请自行确认。。。
12/29/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are calling for a slightly lower open this morning as Greece’s election woes have spilled over into both the European and domestic markets. The failure to nominate a new leader in a key vote over the weekend will likely continue to cloud sentiment in the region until a snap election can be held sometime in late January. As a result, The Dow Jones Industrial Average (/YM) has since slipped below the 18K psychological threshold reached last week for the first time.
Ten year Treasury yields remain stable near 2.22% to start the week with no major drivers expected to move bond prices today. Oil futures (/CL) have remained in a very tight range for the last several sessions just above $55 a barrel which many analysts are projecting as a potential bottom forming should the trend continue. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) appears comfortable near $14.5 over the past few week and could end the year below these levels in the wake of such light economic data.
Stock Stories:
(MTW) –Breaking up?! – The manufacturing company is trending 15% higher this morning after a well-known activist disclosed a large stake in the company over the weekend and is immediately calling for major changes to occur including a potential split.
(AMZN) –Coming of Age! – Amazon just completed its 20th year of online Holiday shopping. Over 10 million new customers signed up for Prime which allows for free two-day shipping with an annual membership fee. Shares remain flat this morning after some preliminary Christmas results were released.
Major Economic Reports:
N/A
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 12/29:
Before Market: N/A
After Market: N/A
Tuesday – 12/30:
Before Market: N/A
After Market:N/A作者: sjwi 时间: 2014-12-29 11:39
作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-12-31 09:58
12/31/2014
Stocks took a break from their December rally yesterday as concerns in Greece and some potential profit-taking had markets in the red. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting another higher open indicating the major indices will end 2014 with solid gains. December has been a volatile month but once again showed a positive result, which has become the norm historically. Oil futures (/CL) are lower again today after hitting below $53 a barrel yesterday for the first time since May of 2009. Option Volatility rose modestly yesterday as stocks hit a bump in their December rally. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has shown some strength this week despite the overall bullish sentiment for equities.
Treasuries are attempting to go higher for the fifth day in a row as demand remains for the safety of Bonds. This has sent the 10-year yield down to the 2.18% level and it remains in a tight range below 2.3%. Trading was thin in Europe and Asia ahead of the New Year’s holiday. The Euro-Zone ended the year on a positive note despite more trouble for Greece. China’s PMI was lower than expected but had little effect on stocks. Today in the U.S., investors will be watching weekly jobless claims data, the Chicago purchasing managers' report, pending home sales, and weekly energy inventory data for clues about the economy's performance. Markets are closed tomorrow for the New Year's holiday.
Stock Stories:
BP (BP) – Trading Off – The Oil and energy behemoth is currently conducting a probe of its in-house financial traders at its oil and gas group to determine whether they were involved in a foreign exchange manipulation scandal. Last year, the company launched an internal investigation of its London currency trading operations, and a source says that probe is "ongoing." The shares are relatively flat ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI
9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
11:00 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 12/31:
Before Market: N/A
After Market: N/A
Markets Closed on Thursday
Friday – 1/2:
Before Market: N/A
After Market:N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-2 10:10
1/2/2015
We saw a bump in the Rally on Wednesday to end 2014 as stocks slid into the close. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting a higher open indicating the major indices will start 2015 with gains. The market fell in the final hours of Wednesday’s trading session, but may recoup some of those losses at the open today. Trading is expected to be light today, as many market participants will extend their holidays through the weekend. Option Volatility spiked higher on Wednesday as stocks fell sharply to end the year. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 20% in the session and rose a total of 32% for the holiday-shortened week. We should see the ‘Fear Gauge’ give back some gains today if stocks remain in positive territory.
Treasuries are opening 2015 on a bearish note with yields higher across the curve. Weakness in core sovereigns and profit taking from late 2014 gains are weighing on bonds. Disappointing PMIs from around the world and a drop in U.K. mortgage lending to a new cycle low are hurting stocks modestly overseas, along with an undercurrent of Greek worries. Despite this, bonds are finding no benefit, though U.S. equity futures are rebounding after Wednesday's declines. Trading remains very thin, however, amid New Year's holidays (Japanese markets remained closed). There are more purchasing managers' reports today with the December ISM manufacturing index, along with the final PMI and November construction spending on the docket. But the markets will be more interested in next week's data on December auto sales, the December ISM services numbers, and the December nonfarm payrolls report. The FOMC minutes are also due on Wednesday.
Stock Stories:
General Motors (GM) – More of the same – The auto-maker closed out 2014 with another set of recalls on electrical issues. Last year, the company had a total recall number of 84 different instances with most tied to the faulty ignition system. The shares are relatively flat ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:58 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – Construction Spending
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 1/2:
Before Market: N/A
After Market: N/A
Monday – 1/5:
Before Market: N/A
After Market:N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-5 09:34
Equity indexes mostly gained in 2014, the exceptions being the a few Asian and European markets. The largest gains were in the Asia Pacific region with the Shanghai Composite soaring 52.9%. The U.S. stock market finished the year up modestly despite falling sharply the last day of the year. The beginning of 2015 was a bit bumpy also as stocks slid from a higher open. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week down 1.4% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) fell 1.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) fell 2% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) dumped by 1.3%. For 2014, the S&P 500 (SPX) finished the year up 11%, The Dow Industrials ($DJI) rose by 7.5% and the Nasdaq (QQQ) led the major indices up 17%.
Despite the trend still higher in equities, Option volatility rose significantly last week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) started the week at $14.50 but quickly reversed to finish up 22% near $17.80. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is beginning to show strength as many predict that stock swings will increase in 2015. Geopolitical risks from Greece, Russia and the Middle East could be the trigger for more volatility into the first quarter of the year.
Treasury yields fell sharply as demand for Bonds increased. The flight to the ‘Risk-off’ trade was strong despite many predicting higher rates for 2015. The 10-year yield trended lower the latter part of the week and is still relatively low at 2.13%. Oil (/CL) prices fell more last week as they were off by an additional 4.2%. For the year, crude fell almost 50% and continues to see weakness. The consumer is showing signs that spending picked up during the holidays…but will it be enough to propel equity values higher is the question.
There will be limited economic data to dissect this week but volumes should pick up after the Holiday-shortened weeks. Data on the Auto Sales, Services and Non-Manufacturing are due early in the week. The Fed minutes to its December meeting come out on Wednesday afternoon and the week finishes up with the December jobs Report on Friday. Earnings season doesn’t start for another week but will give further clarity on corporate health starting the week of January 12th.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – N/A
P.M. – N/A
Tuesday:
A.M. – ZEP
P.M.– MU, SONC
Wednesday:
A.M. – MON, SVU
P.M. – RT, WDFC
Thursday:
A.M. – APOL, FDO, STZ
P.M. – BBBY, TCS
Friday:
A.M. –AYI, INFY
Economic Releases (1/5 – 1/9):
Monday:
Auto Sales – All Day
11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX
Tuesday:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index
9:00 am CT– Factory Orders
9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index
Wednesday:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report
7:30 am CT – International Trade
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes
Thursday:
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
Friday:
7:30 am CT – December Jobs Report
9:00 am CT – Wholesales Trade作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-5 09:35
1/5/2015
Stocks kicked off 2015 with a whimper on Friday as they fell throughout the day. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting a lower open indicating the major indices will continue to be under pressure. The U.S. Dollar (/DX) is spiking higher again and the Euro sank to a nine-year low against the Greenback. This has put pressure on some commodities such as Oil (/CL) which is down 50% from June highs. Crude is under $52 a barrel and looks to be trending directly to $50. Gas prices have fallen each day for the last month, which should help the consumer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) actually fell 7% on Friday despite the modest losses in equities.
Treasuries are moderately higher this morning after rallying last week. The demand for the safety of Bonds has confused many economists as many expected yields to rise last year. Overseas, the Shanghai Composite spiked another 3.6% in its first session in 2015. The European markets are showing weakness as did Japan. An index of euro zone sentiment, which measures the sentiment of investors and analysts, rose for the third straight month in January and topped expectations by a significant amount. Economic data today is light as only Auto Sales and TD Ameritrade’s IMX are due. Focus will remain on The FOMC minutes due Wednesday and the December Jobs report, which is released on Friday morning.
Stock Stories:
Ford, General Motors (F, GM) – Sales Induced – The auto-maker’s report December sales figures this morning. Sales in 2014 were strong as the economy picked up but these two firms under-performed on a stock price level due to numerous recalls. The shares are of both are relatively flat ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
Auto Sales – All Day
7:00 am CT – Fed’s Williams Speaks
11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 1/5:
Before Market: N/A
After Market: N/A
Tuesday – 1/6:
Before Market: ZEP
After Market:MU, SONC作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-6 09:25
1/6/2015
Stocks finished Monday’s session down sharply and it led to the first four-day losing streak since December of 2013. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are attempting to reverse the trend as they are slightly higher in the premarket. Oil (/CL) is down sharply again and traded below $49 a barrel overnight. While this will help the consumer, the energy sector stocks may have some more pain coming as estimates and numbers will need to be revised lower. Option volatility exploded yesterday as equities fell throughout the day. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 12% but could not hold the $20 level into the close. If we see any snap-back rally in stocks today, we would expect to see a swift reversal lower in the ‘Fear Gauge’.
Treasuries are sharply higher again this morning as demand continues for the safety of Bonds. The Benchmark 10-year yield slipped below 2% overnight and is currently hovering near this psychological level. Overseas Bond prices are also rising as global yields are at an average historical low level. Global equity markets are following our lead from Monday as most are lower. Japan fell 3% and London was off by over 1%. Economic data today is heavy with reports on Services and non-manufacturing due this morning. Focus will remain on The FOMC minutes due tomorrow and the December Jobs report, which is released on Friday morning.
Stock Stories:
Caterpillar (CAT) – Bulldozed – The construction machine maker received a couple of analyst downgrades yesterday on lower oil prices, which will impact energy and construction investments by firms. The tumbled over 5% yesterday but still has room to the downside to its multi-year support level near $80. The shares are relatively flat ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index
9:00 am CT– Factory Orders
9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 1/6:
Before Market: ZEP
After Market: MU, SONC
Wednesday – 1/7:
Before Market: MON, SVU
After Market:RT, WDFC作者: qzhou3 时间: 2015-1-6 11:19
Can't believe the ER season is here again! Time flies作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-7 10:17
1/7/2015
Stocks took another massive dump yesterday but did manage to cut some losses later in the day. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell for the fifth straight session and is off more than 4% since it reached its all-time highs just 8 days ago. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply higher in the pre-market as they attempt to reverse the negative trend. The recent slide in stocks was partly fueled by disappointing economic data and lower Oil (/CL) prices. Crude was down another 4% in yesterday’s volatile session and traded below $47 a barrel for the first time since April of 2009. Option volatility rose again yesterday as equities were under massive pressure. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 6% but should slide quickly today if stocks remain in positive territory.
The ‘Risk-Off’ Trade has been in full effect for the last week as demand for bonds is strong. Treasuries are lower for the first time since before Christmas as risk appetite rebounds slightly today. The 10-year Treasury yield is up to 1.98%, and is below 2% for the first time since the mid-October one day slide. Overnight data were mixed. As feared, Euro-zone inflation fell into negative territory for the first time since 2009, adding to arguments for fully blown QE, which is supporting gains in equities. The Euro-zone unemployment rate was steady at 11.5%, while the German jobless numbers fell last month. Meanwhile, Treasuries are also taking out a little insurance over the potential the FOMC minutes to the December 16, 17 policy meeting will be on the hawkish side. Data today includes the December ADP private payroll figures and November trade figures. The MBA released two weeks of data, with the January 2 figures showing an 11.1% rebound after an 18.2% decline in the December 26 week.
Stock Stories:
Twitter (TWTR) – Rumor-Mill – The stock had been trading relatively higher recently in a down tape, and yesterday it got a boost on rumors of possible activist involvement. Takeover rumors are also swirling. The shares are up another 2% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report
7:30 am CT – International Trade
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes
5:30 pm CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 1/7:
Before Market: MON, SVU
After Market: RT, WDFC
Thursday – 1/8:
Before Market: APOL, FDO, STZ
After Market:BBBY, TCS作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-8 09:46
1/8/2015
Stocks regained some lost ground yesterday as the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose over 1% after a string of five down sessions. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply higher in the pre-market again as traders look optimistic ahead of the jobs data. Fed Uber-Dove Evans stated the U.S. might not hit the Fed’s target inflation rate until 2018, and he doesn’t advise a rate hike until 2016. Evans, who is a voting member of the FOMC, was speaking at an event late Wednesday and his angle is nothing new on rates. Option volatility slid sharply yesterday on the rally. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 8% and should fall further today if stocks remain in positive territory.
Treasuries are lower in conjunction with declines in European sovereigns. Treasuries are underperforming with the 10-year yield up to 1.997%. Yesterday's FOMC minutes didn't provide any fresh insights and still support rate lift-off this year, but not over the next several months. The Bank of England left policy unchanged, as expected. Further strength in risk appetite is weighing on bonds, along with moderate stability in oil. Data overseas was mixed with weaker confidence and German orders data and a gain in U.K. house prices. The markets are focused on Friday's December nonfarm payrolls but will have to first get through today's numbers on December Challenger announced job cuts, weekly jobless claims, and November consumer credit. There's Fed-speak today from the doves Rosengren and Kocherlakota.
Stock Stories:
Constellation Brands (STZ) – Still boozing! – The alcohol beverage giant posted better than expected earnings this morning and Revenue also beat expectations. The company also raised FY15 guidance on higher sales expectations. The shares are up 4% ahead of the opening bell and are once again at all-time highs.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit
Notable Earnings:
Thursday – 1/8:
Before Market: APOL, FDO, STZ
After Market: BBBY, TCS
Friday – 1/9:
Before Market: AYI, INFY
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-11 22:30
January 11, 2014
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) faltered progressively on Friday to end lower on a volatile first full trading week of the new year. A disappointing wage growth report along with ongoing terrorist activity in Europe quickly spread to all ten major sectors creating a wide-spread sell-off. The Dow Jones (DJX)and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) both surrendered roughly 1% as a result.
Option volatility had faded lower much of last week to briefly trade at the cheapest levels of the year Friday morning before an intra-day spike sent the index up to $17.55 at the close. Further volatility may likely be expected as the VIX has already experienced several double digit percentage swings so far in early January.
Treasury yields declined this past week to conclude at 1.95% after the weaker than expected wage report along with the relentless decline of oil prices prompted heavy buying due to concerning signs of a slowing economy. This week will host major bond auctions which may contribute to added volatility in the space. Oil futures (/CL) fell once again this week to close below $50 a barrel as the surplus in production drastically outweighs demand .
There are several vital economic reports slated to be released this week surrounding production output and inventory levels. CPI and PPI likely being the most closely watched. The Federal Reserves will also continue to play a key role with the release of the closely scrutinized Beige book mid-week that has the potential to autograph future rate change criteria. Alcoa (AA) will officially kick off a highly anticipated earnings cycle tomorrow night with 4th quarter results expected after the bell. Most of the major "too big to fail" financial institutions will follow suit by revealing results later in the week.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – N/A
P.M. – AA
Tuesday:
A.M. – KBH
P.M.– CSX, KMI
Wednesday:
A.M. – JPM, WFC
P.M. – N/A
Thursday:
A.M. – BAC, C, LEN
P.M. – BLK, FAST, INTC, SLB
Friday:
A.M. –GS, PNC, STI
P.M. – N/A
Economic Releases (1/12 – 1/16):
Monday:
11:40 am CT – FOMC member Lockhart speaks
Tuesday:
6:30 am CT – NFIB Small business index
9:00 am CT – JOLTS
12:00 pm CT – 10-year Bond Auction Results
1:00 pm CT – Fed Budget Balance
Wednesday:
7:00 am CT – Core Retail Sales
7:00 am CT – Import Prices
9:00 am CT – Business Inventories
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction
1:00 pm CT – Beige Book
Thursday:
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)
7:30 am CT – Empire State Manufacturing Index
9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
Friday:
7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
8:15 am CT – Industrial Production
8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment
9:00 am CT – TIC Long Term Purchases作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-12 09:34
1/12/2015
Stocks looked like they might have found a bottom on Friday morning but once again heavy selling led markets lower to end the week. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are reversing higher this morning as traders may be setting up for a positive earnings season. Wall Street is also taking its lead from European markets, which are sharply higher. Rumors that the ECB is planning a significant Quantitative Easing program is taking shape. Despite this, there is differing views on the path to take as far as bond purchases and individual country commitments. Option volatility rose only slightly on Friday despite the afternoon dump in stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 3% to end the week but should reverse lower today if stock remain in positive territory.
Treasuries are flat to lower this morning and have fallen from overnight gains. The Benchmark 10-year yield is still under 2% after demand remains for Bonds by investors. The boost to risk appetite has helped European bourses rebound more than 1%, with a smaller bounce in U.S. after two consecutive weeks declines. Data was light overnight and is thin in the U.S. too with just Fed-speak from Lockhart this afternoon and the $24 B 3-year auction. There's important data this week, however, with retail sales, CPI, and industrial production due along with earnings season kicking off today with a report from Alcoa (AA).
Stock Stories:
Tiffany (TIF) – Dulling Diamonds – The high-end jeweler reported lower than anticipated sales over the last two months of the year. The company cut is FY14 EPS view and is blaming currency issues as the strong dollar offset their over-shot estimates for the holiday season. The shares are down 6% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
11:40 am CT – FOMC member Lockhart speaks
12:00 pm CT – 3-Year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 1/12:
Before Market: N/A
After Market: AA
Tuesday – 1/13:
Before Market: KBH
After Market: CSX, LLTC作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-13 09:51
1/13/2015
Stocks fell again during yesterday’s session despite showing strength in the pre-market. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are forecasting a higher open ahead of the opening bell today. An optimistic earnings report from Alcoa (AA) and signs that the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement Quantitative Easing sooner than later are supporting equities. Oil prices (/CL) may throw another wrench into the rally as it has fallen below $45 a barrel this morning and sits at 6-year lows. Option volatility rose sharply on Monday as traders bought protection. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 11% but should reverse lower today if stocks remain in positive territory.
Bonds and stocks are higher around the globe amid further declines in oil prices and weaker than expected U.K. inflation data, along with ECB-speak supporting dovish ECB policy. The 10-year Treasury is down under 1.9% to 1.88%. These factors are likely to keep a bullish tone in bonds near term. There isn't a lot on today's calendar with just November JOLTS data, weekly chain store sale, and the December Treasury budget. The Treasury reopens $21 B in 10-year notes. The auction may go well after a very well received 3-year offering Monday. The dovish Kocherlakota will speak on the economic outlook later in the session and will once again promote a pessimistic plan for raising rates.
Stock Stories:
Alcoa (AA) – Fallen star – The company is known as the unofficial kick-off to earnings season but has since been taken out of the Dow Industrials and matters less to traders. Despite the fall, the aluminum giant posted better than expected EPS and Revenue and is forecasting growth of 7% globally. The shares are up 1.5% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:30 am CT – NFIB Small business index
7:00 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks
9:00 am CT – JOLTS
12:00 pm CT – 10-year Bond Auction Results
1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget
4:00 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 1/13:
Before Market: KBH
After Market: CSX, LLTC
Wednesday – 1/14:
Before Market: JPM, SJR, WFC
After Market: FUL作者: aimei 时间: 2015-1-13 09:55
谢谢月饼ＭＭ 作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-14 09:37
1/14/2015
Stocks had another wild session yesterday as they fell from mid-morning highs to finish in the red. The major indices were at one point up almost 2% before sliding sharply the last few hours of the session. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are forecasting more pain today as they are sliding ahead of the opening bell. Copper (/HG) prices are plunging on growth concerns out of China as the World Bank revised forecasts lower overnight. Oil prices (/CL) recovered from a deep slide yesterday but the trend is still lower. Option volatility rose again yesterday on heavy volumes as equities fell sharply in the afternoon. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose another 5% and settled above the psychological $20 level again.
Treasuries are a little higher, in tandem with gains across global sovereigns overnight, as there is a sea of red in equities. The 10-year yield fell to 1.85%, the lowest since May 2013 as the ‘Risk-Off’ trade has taken hold. The European Court of Justice gave a thumbs up to QE from the ECB, indicating asset buying was legal "in principle." Meanwhile, the weakness in commodities continues to drag equities lower. Today's data on December retail sales will be closely monitored, along with import and export prices and business inventories. The MBA reported mortgage applications surged a massive 49.1% on a pick-up in refinancing’s as rates dove lower. The Treasury reopens $13 B in 30-year bonds. And the Fed will release its Beige Book for the January 27, 28 policy meeting this afternoon.
Stock Stories:
JP Morgan Chase (JPM) – Fee due – The Banking giant posted a dismal earnings report this morning as they missed on EPS and top-line Revenue. The company reported an additional $1B in after tax loss expense. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications -
7:30 am CT – Retail Sales
7:30 am CT – Import & Export Prices
9:00 am CT – Business Inventories
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction
1:00 pm CT – Beige Book
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 1/14
Before Market: JPM, SJR, WFC
After Market: FUL
Thursday – 1/15:
Before Market: BAC, C, LEN
After Market: BLK, FAST, INTC, SLB作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-15 10:12
1/15/2015
Stocks were lower again and volatile yesterday but did rally off of mid-day lows. Rising oil (/CL) and a bounce of technical levels caused the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) to settle above the key $2K level after trading below $1990 at one point. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are forecasting a moderately lower day ahead of the opening bell. Overnight, stocks futures were enjoying a solid rally before the Swiss Central Bank surprised markets by scrapping its three-year old peg of Swiss Francs to the Euro. This sent equity markets globally into free-fall as the action was not anticipated. U.S. stocks have recovered most of its losses but volatility looks like it’s here to stay. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose modestly on Wednesday and rallied significantly into the close as equities recovered.
Treasuries are a little higher and hit their highest level ever yesterday as demand for bonds rises. The 30-year yield fell to its lowest level on record and remains under pressure. European stocks reversed lower after the Swiss announcement and currency trading was suspended in the Franc as a result of the actions. In the U.S. today, focus will be on Jobless Claims and inflation data by way of the PPI. Earnings will also be in focus as Banking stocks are under pressure due to poor results from JPM and BAC.
Stock Stories:
Bank of America (BAC) – Withdrawn - The Banking giant posted a poor earnings report this morning. The company reported that revenues were down due to lower fixed-income profits. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Stocks dumped again yesterday and settled below some key technical levels. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) settled below the key $2K level and today may continue the slide. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are down sharply again ahead of the opening bell. Oil prices (/CL) recovered this morning from a deep slide yesterday but the trend is still lower. Option volatility rose modestly again yesterday as equities fell again. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose another 4% and settled above $22 and looks to be gaining a solid base.
Treasuries are sharply higher again on heavy trading volume. The 30-year Treasury yield is sitting at its lowest level as demand is high for Bonds. There's been some back-up in Greek rates on reports some banks are seeking for Emergency Liquidity Assistance. Equities are mixed with European bourses mostly in the green, while Asian shares and U.S. equity futures are lower and the dollar (/DX) was mostly firmer. Not surprisingly, many economists are cutting Swiss growth forecasts after their actions yesterday. U.S. data includes December CPI, industrial production and preliminary January consumer sentiment figures. It will also be very interesting to hear comments from the Fed's Kocherlakota, Williams, and Bullard in the face of the SNB's move and with further declines in oil prices.
Stock Stories:
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Squid – The Investment company posted an in-line earnings report this morning as they hit on EPS and top-line Revenue. The company CEO stated they were pleased with 2014 performance and sees continued pick-up in the global economy despite the recent volatility. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
8:50 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks
8:15 am CT – Industrial Production
8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment
11:00 am CT – Fed’s Williams Speaks
12:10 pm CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks
3:00 pm CT – Treadsury Intl. Capital
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 1/16:
Before Market: GS, PNC, STI
After Market: N/A
Tuesday – 1/20:
Before Market: BHI, DAL, HAL, JNJ, MS, PETS, RF, SAP
After Market: CA, NFLX, SIX作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-19 17:19
January 18, 2015
US Equities reversed a five day losing skid on Friday to finish the week on a high note after a solid consumer confidence number helped to calm the market. Oil futures led the rally after the down trodden commodity showed new signs of life closing up near $49 a barrel. The CBOE Volatility index finished just below $21 in connection with the newly found optimism after remaining 2% higher for most of the week. The 10 year benchmark continues to defy expectations with an 1.815% closing yield after a flight to safety prompted heavy demand for the last several sessions before changing course slightly on Friday.
Although markets will remain closed tomorrow in observance of Martin Luther King Day; the balance of the week is expected to be power packed with a trifecta of global events which may likely add to the year’s early ramp up in volatility. Tuesday will host President Obama’s State of the Union address which is rumored to have several tax changes in the works for the besieged middle class to further kick start the economy while closing loopholes for the ultra-wealthy. Any other surprises may easily rattle markets if a more diplomatic stance isn’t extended towards a newly elected Republican lead Congress. The World Economic Forum re-assembles in Davos Switzerland on Wednesday with many of the globe’s most dominant political and business figures present to debate many of society’s most pressing issues. Historically, this event has served as a platform for announcing several business deals along with major shifts in policy. However, the most widely anticipated news so far in 2015 will be Thursday’s prolonged decision from the ECB on some overreaching form of Quantitative Easing (QE) for the entire European Union. Early indications signal a series of sovereign debt purchases by each member to avoid a blanket approach which would only penalize the stronger members like Germany for additional bailouts for weaker countries in the future.
Quarterly Earnings will also remain in full swing with several S&P components all slated to release during the course of the week. So far mixed results have prevailed with multiple financial companies sparking some of last week’s turmoil after disappointing results surprised amid recent downward revisions.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – Markets
P.M. – Closed
Tuesday:
A.M. – BHI, DAL, HAL, JNJ, MS, PETS, SAP
P.M.– AMD, CA, CREE, NFLX, SIX
Wednesday:
A.M. – AMTD, ASML, FITB, GD, VIVO, UNH
P.M. – AXP, DFS, EBAY, FFIV, KMI, SNDK, XLNX
Thursday:
A.M. – BBT, CP, JCI, LUV, TRV, UAL, UNP,VZ
P.M. – ALTR, COF, ISRG, SBUX
Friday:
A.M. –BK, DRD, GE, HON, KMB, MCD, STT
Economic Releases (1/19 – 1/23):
Monday:
Markets Closed
Tuesday:
9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index
9:00 am CT – Fed’s Powell Speaks
Wednesday:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:15 am CT – Housing Starts
Thursday:
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index Flash
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
10:00 am CT – Oil Inventories
Friday:
7:30 am CT – Existing Home Sales
9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators作者: 读读书 时间: 2015-1-19 17:27
作者: gossiphuang 时间: 2015-1-19 19:06
作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-21 09:29
1/21/2015
Stocks rose again for the second day in a row, albeit minimal gains. Last night’s State of the Union address by President Obama had little effect overnight on markets. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sliding this morning ahead of the opening bell. Comments from an ECB council member have downward pressure on equities after he said people “should not get overexcited” about Thursday’s meeting. Optimism has grown that the ECB will ramp up its Quantitative Easing program and boost inflation levels with their announcement tomorrow. Option volatility fell sharply yesterday despite the meager gains in stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 5% and settled below the psychological $20 level once again on low volume.
Treasuries are trending higher this morning after rising modestly on Tuesday. The 10-year yield remains near the 1.8% level but the trend remains lower. Overseas, Chinese stocks rose almost 5% but European equities are relatively flat to slightly red. Earnings season is now in full swing and results are mixed at this point. Despite some decent numbers, forecast’s by corporate America remains tempered and cautious into 2015. U.S. data includes today is light with only Housing starts due. Markets will continue to monitor comments out of Davos and corporate results for direction today.
Stock Stories:
Intl. Business Machines (IBM) – Feeling “Blue” – The tech bellwether posted another disappointing quarter yesterday after the close. The company lowered FY15 guidance and continues to see margins impacted by Cloud investments. The shares are down 2.5% ahead of the opening bell.
Netflix (NFLX) – Streaming higher – The internet streaming company posted better than expected quarterly results after the bell yesterday. The company saw overseas growth particularly strong and expansion plans are ahead of schedule. The stock is up 15% in the premarket, which is above the 10% expected move according to the option markets.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 14.2%
7:15 am CT – Housing Starts
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 1/21:
Before Market: AMTD, ASML, FITB, GD,VIVO,UNH
After Market: AXP, DFS, EBAY, FFIV, KMI, SNDK, XLNX
Thursday – 1/22:
Before Market: BBT, CP, JCI, LUV, TRV, UAL, UNP,VZ
After Market: ALTR, COF, ISRG, SBUX作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-22 09:52
Stocks rose again for the third day in a row as they have ground slightly higher in each of the sessions. This morning, the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged. Further monetary policy measures will be communicated by the President of the ECB at a press conference starting at 1:30 pm CT today. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are grinding higher this morning ahead of the opening bell. Many expect the ECB to once again fail in their decisions so markets and volatility may ramp up during today’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 5% and is down 10% just this week.
Treasuries continued to retreat overnight as hefty declines in Asian and European sovereigns are helping. The 10-year yield is up over 1.92% as Bonds dump. Global equities are modestly higher. Of course it's all about the ECB and its upcoming comments this afternoon. Today's U.S. data on initial jobless claims and the FHFA home price index for November will be overshadowed by the overseas news. There will also be plenty of earnings announcements today and tomorrow morning led by Starbucks (SBUX), General Electric (GE) and McDonald’s (MCD).
Stock Stories:
EBay, Inc. (EBAY) – SOLD! – The auction/Paypal company posted an in-line quarterly report yesterday after the close. The company lowered FY15 guidance but announced layoffs of employees. The shares are up 3% ahead of the opening bell, which was slightly less than the expected move according to the option markets.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
10:00 am CT – Oil Inventories
Notable Earnings:
Thursday – 1/22:
Before Market: BBT, CP, JCI, LUV, TRV, UAL, UNP,VZ
After Market: ALTR, COF, ISRG, SBUX
Friday – 1/23:
Before Market: BK, DRD, GE, HON, KMB, MCD, STT
After Market: N/A作者: gossiphuang 时间: 2015-1-22 19:00
作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-23 09:56
1/23/2015
Equities continued their recent upturn in stunning fashion yesterday as the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 1.5%. Investors cheered the decision by the European Central Bank to initiate a larger than anticipated Bond-Buying program to revive the Euro-Zone economy. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly higher as the market may attempt to build on the rally. Option volatility dumped lower yesterday as the ‘Risk-On’ trade was in place. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 13% and is down 21% this week as volumes into equities was strong. We should see a continuation of this downtrend if stocks remain in positive territory.
The U.S. Dollar Index (/DX) is sharply higher again today and is trading at levels not seen since 2003. Bonds are higher globally, with many markets in Europe and Asia setting fresh record lows in the wake of the ECB's stimulus. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.77%, though it's edged back over 1.8%. In overnight news, Saudi King Abdullah died and will be replaced by his brother Salman. Oil prices are modestly higher but the succession plan was in place and it should have little long-term effect on crude prices. China's flash PMI edged up to 49.8, but remains in contractionary territory under 50. The Euro-zone composite PMI also improved to 52.2. In the U.S. there is data on December existing home sales, leading indicators, and the flash PMI for January. Earnings reports include McDonald's (MCD), General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON), and Kimberly-Clark (KMB). The focus this weekend will be on the Greek elections Sunday and the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Stock Stories:
Starbucks (SBUX) –Fully Caffeinated – The coffee giant posted an in-line quarterly report last night after the close. Despite not blowing out estimates, analysts are raising price targets and estimates. The shares are up over 4% ahead of the opening bell, which was significantly more than the expected move according to the option markets.
Major Economic Reports:
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index - Flash
9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales
9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 1/23:
Before Market: BK, DRD, GE, HON, KMB, MCD, STT
After Market: N/A
Monday – 1/26:
Before Market: DHI, NSC, RCL, STX
After Market: MSFT, RMBS, TXN, ZION作者: wsjboy 时间: 2015-1-23 12:46
The European Central Bank (ECB) unleased a bigger than expected Quantitative Easing Program this past week. The move was intended to push investors into riskier assets and to lower the value of the euro, which traded at its lowest level against the Dollar in nearly 12 years. This action sent global equities grinding higher during the Holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 1.6% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) rose a modest 0.9% due to losses in IBM and Oil stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led the major indices up 2.7% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) rose 1%. For 2015, the Nasdaq is the only index in the black.
With the trend higher in equities, Option volatility dumped significantly last week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) started the week above the psychological $20 level but fell 20% to finish at $16.66. The action by the ECB is seen by many as a way to keep riskier assets such as stocks in favor. The ‘Fear Gauge’ has shown strength so far this year and we don’t believe it will fall too much further heading into the Greek election today and earnings season in the U.S.
Treasury yields remained weak despite the action by the ECB and a flight to stocks. The ‘Risk-on’ trade was strong but demand for Bonds remained healthy. The 10-year yield is still low at 1.81%. Oil (/CL) prices fell more last week as they were off by an additional 7%. Crude fell sharply after Iraqi crude production surged to a record and the International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth outlook. On Friday, oil fell to the lowest in almost six years on belief that the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia will not result in any change in strategy for the world's largest crude exporter and production levels will not be cut.
The highlight this week will be the Fed's FOMC announcement on Wednesday. The Fed will focus on both the labor market and inflation. Recent Fed comments have suggested no rate increase until after the March meeting but traders will be watching to see if there is a change in that stance. Friday, we get a first look at fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product and to what extent slowing in global growth might be impacting the U.S. Updates on the wavering housing and manufacturing sectors also are due. Along with the economic data, earnings will be in focus, led by Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL).
9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-1-26 10:04
1/26/2015
Equities took a break from last week’s rally on Friday as they slid into the close on concerns about the Greek elections that took place yesterday. A win by the Greek anti-austerity party, escalations of violence in Ukraine and a snowstorm out East have stocks under pressure this morning. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly lower but have recovered off of lows that came overnight. Option volatility fell for the week but may have found a near-term bottom. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 20% last week but rose modestly on Friday. There is plenty of economic data this week along with important earnings, which could provide some additional movement in markets.
Bonds are modestly higher this morning but are far off of overnight highs. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.8% and is showing no signs of reversing higher. In other news, the German confidence index rose better than expected to help boost European stocks. The markets will continue to digest the election outcome near term, along with the various central bank surprises ahead of the FOMC statement on Wednesday. There is some key data ahead, as well as a slew of earnings reports. Today's slate includes the January flash services PMI and the January Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. Microsoft (MSFT) kicks off earnings this week. Also ahead, the Treasury auctions $90 B on Tuesday through Thursday.
Stock Stories:
Intl. Business Machines (IBM) –Blue Reorg – The technology services leader posted another dismal quarter this past week. Rumors of a massive Reorganization at the company could surface soon. Layoffs of 25% of the employee count could be a part of the action. The shares are up 1% ahead of the opening bell and could be in for a volatile week.
Equities gained slightly to start the week yesterday on low market volumes. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply lower as corporate results are coming in lower than expected by some benchmark companies. Many are blaming currency and forex volatility on the missed expectations. The Blizzard out East was downgraded somewhat as snow levels are lower than expected. All Exchanges are open for trading today. Option volatility fell modestly yesterday but should pop today if stocks stay in the red. Of the nearly 100 S&P 500 compnaies that have reported earnings, just ove 60% have beaten expectations.
Bonds are modestly higher, in contrast to small losses in most overseas bond markets. The 10-year Treasury yield held narrowly around the 1.80% level. Stocks are weaker and are extending declines of about 1% amid Greek worries and earnings misses from Pfizer (PFE), Caterpillar (CAT) and others. U.K. Q4 GDP growth slowed more than expected and lending approvals fell to a new cycle low. The Nikkei was the major exception as it posted a 1.7% gain on the weaker yen. The FOMC is scheduled to begin its 2-day meeting today, and release its policy statement on Wednesday at 1:00 pm CT. Today's data calendar is heavy and includes December durable goods orders, January consumer confidence, December new home sales, the January flash services PMI and the November Case-Shiller home price index. There are also plenty more earnings reports today, including Apple (AAPL), Yahoo (YHOO), Amgen (AMGN), Bristol-Myers (BMY), du Pont (DD), AT&T (T), and Coach (COH).
Stock Stories:
Caterpillar (CAT) –Digging Down – The machine manufacturer posted a mixed earnings report this morning as EPS missed badly but Revenue beat slightly against expectations. The company lowered guidance significantly for the year. The shares are down 5% ahead of the opening bell.
Proctor & Gamble (PG) – Blame game – The consumer products company missed estimates on its quarterly earnings report this morning. The company is one of many that is blaming currency and forex effects. The stock is down over 2% in the pre-market.
The FOMC meeting this past week sent shockwaves through the markets. The Fed continued with a go slow approach to tightening. Meanwhile, economic data were mixed, including a surprise on the downside for manufacturing. The Greek elections had little effect to start the week but then the roller coaster effect took hold. Blue chips led early losses and lower oil prices continued to downtrend. The FOMC statement weighed on equities on Wednesday but they bounced back slightly on Thursday as weekly jobless claims helped stocks. Markets continued to slide on Friday as GDP growth was sluggish. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week down 2.8% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) led losses off 2.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) finished down 2.6% even with the massive rise in APPL, GOOGL and AMZN. The small caps (RUT, IWM) fell 2% only as it was stronger early in the week.
With equities dumping for the week, Option volatility rose significantly last week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rallied 25% and once again settled above the psychological $20 level. The jumps above this level have increased in number and duration and volatility should remain in the markets in the near-term. The economy appears to have lost a little steam despite mixed economic signals. Manufacturing is soft—in part due to sluggish growth in Europe and Asia. And a recently stronger dollar does not help the manufacturing outlook.
Treasury yields fell in conjunction with rising demand for Bonds. The yields trade opposite the Treasury prices and the 10-year yield hit levels not seen for almost two years. The ‘Risk-off’ trade was strong as the safety of Bonds remained in favor. Oil (/CL) prices rebounded modestly for the week. Crude fell sharply at the start of the week but saw a snap-back rally on Friday to send it higher.
There will be plenty to digest this upcoming week for economic data. The consumer sector and Services industry are the focus this week. The consumer mood has been improving and several indicators will confirm this trend or not. The January jobs report for January posts on Friday and the two key questions are whether payroll gains continue at a moderately healthy pace and if wages improve from a soft trend. Personal income starts the week and a key issue is how much the consumer sector gets in terms of income. The proof of consumer strength is what drives the economy and the first January data on spending is with this week's motor vehicle sales. Earnings season also continues in earnest as the energy and pharma sectors will be in focus.
Equities had another Friday dump last week as the GDP number came in lighter than expected. January ended the first month of the year in the red for all of the major indices, which historically is a bad sign for stocks. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly higher as positive consumer spending is attempting to counter the geopolitical and economic data. President Obama announced plans to tax multi-nationals on profits kept overseas. This battle with the GOP could also add politics to the headwinds list. Option volatility rose sharply on Friday as stocks slid throughout the day. The CBOE Volatility Index settled above $20 again but may give back some gains today if equities remain in positive territory. Volumes may be light as a storm here in the Midwest and heading out East is affecting commutes.
Treasuries are relatively flat today but rallied sharply again on Friday. The Risk-off trade was in effect last week which has sent the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.67%. Overseas, China’s manufacturing activity is still contracting according to data released today. Greece’s new government began a so-called ‘Charm offensive’ on Sunday. The actions are apparently an effort to persuade the Euro-Zone to soften its terms of it bailout package. Today's data calendar is modest but there are key announcements on ISM Index and Construction Spending. Corporate results are light today led by Exxon (XOM) but 85 S&P 500 companies report this week.
Stock Stories:
Amazon.com (AMZN) – Really? – The online retailer posted better than expected earnings last week and saw a massive rally on Friday. The company results were led by more Prime subscribers. The shares more than doubled its expected move during Fridays session and may see more upside.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Personal Income and Outlays
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – Construction Spending
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 2/2:
Before Market: LII, PBI, SYY, XOM
After Market: APC, CLF, HIG, S
Tuesday – 2/3:
Before Market: AET, ADM, AN, CME, ETN, GCI, JLL, NYT, UPS
Equities had quite a rollercoaster ride to start off the week yesterday. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) bounced off of morning lows near a key $1980 technical support level to finish the day in the black. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly higher again as higher oil prices and encouraging news out of Greece put a bid in stocks. Oil (/CL) is trying for its third positive session in a row and is now over $50 a barrel. Option volatility rose sharply yesterday morning as equities slid but fell throughout the rally in the afternoon. The CBOE Volatility Index rose above the $22 level yesterday but finished the session at $19.43. Factory orders are the only key piece of data out today but could show a fifth straight month of declines, which could provide some additional market volatility.
Overseas, European stocks are up over 1%, after Greece's new government proposed ending the confrontation with its creditors by swapping outstanding debt for new growth-linked bonds, running a permanent budget surplus and targeting wealthy tax-evaders. The Finance minister does not want a confrontation but is requesting a "menu of debt swaps," including two types of new bonds to replace European rescue loans and ECB-owned Greek bonds. U.S. Treasuries are falling sharply this morning. The 10-year yield is rising as bonds fall and is back above the 1.7% level. Today's data calendar is light but there will be a couple of speeches by Fed Governors today that could sway stocks and bonds.
Stock Stories:
Chipotle (CMG) – It’s just a Burrito!! – The fast-casual Mexican food company reports earnings tonight after the close. The option market is pricing in a 6% move in the shares after the report. The shares are just below all-time highs and is slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.
Disney (DIS) – Not a small world – The entertainment company shares have slid from all-time highs over the last couple of weeks ahead of earnings tonight. The stock is up 1% in the pre-market and the option market is expecting a move of $2.60 or 3% into the report.
Major Economic Reports:
Auto Sales
9:00 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks
9:00 am CT– Factory Orders
11:45 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 2/3:
Before Market: AET, ADM, AN, CME, ETN, GCI, JLL, NYT, UPS
After Market: AFL, CHRW, CMG, DIS, GILD, TTWO
Wednesday – 2/4:
Before Market: AGN, CLX, CTSH, GM, HUM, MRK, RL, SMG, SNE, SO, TM, WHR
After Market: ALL, CLR, HAIN,GMCR, SU, UA, WSTL, YUM作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-2-4 09:25
2/4/2015
Equities saw another rally yesterday as optimism on Greece and a rise in Oil prices put a bid in global markets. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) was choppy to start the day but saw a solid rally into the close. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly lower as lower oil prices are pressuring stocks. The Dow Industrials ($DJI, DIA) gained almost 2% yesterday led by energy names. Option volatility took a dump on the stock rally on Tuesday. The CBOE Volatility Index fell below $18 yesterday but is still just above its 200-day moving average. There is plenty of economic and corporate news due, which could provide another choppy session today.
U.S. Treasuries are slightly higher this morning and is attempting to reverse yesterday’s sell-off. As Bonds fell, the 10-year yield rose back to the 1.78% level. Overseas, equities are mixed with Japan's Nikkei posting a near 2% gain on the heels of the 1.76% surge in the Dow, while European bourses are mostly weaker. China's Central Bank cut the reserve rate requirement to boost lending and growth and to "keep the economy stable." Euro-zone retail sales posted a strong gain, while services PMI was revised up. The U.K. services PMI beat expectations. U.S. data will be of interest with the January ADP private payroll figures due, which will set the stage for Friday's jobs numbers. Other reports on the calendar include ISM services and the final PMI services numbers, along with weekly oil inventories. The MBA reported a 1.3% bounce in mortgage applications for the week ended January 30. There is Fed-speak from Powell and Mester today and earnings announcements include GM, Ralph Lauren (RL), Under Armour (UA), Whirlpool (WHR), Yum! (YUM), and Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR).
Stock Stories:
Chipotle (CMG) –Burrito Price Hike alert! – The fast-casual Mexican food company reported in-line earnings after the close yesterday. The company stated that it may once again raise prices on some items. The shares are down over 5% ahead of the opening bell, which was the amount expected by the option market into the report.
Merck (MRK) – Vaccinated – The pharmaceutical giant posted mixed earnings results this morning as Revenue came in light. The company also lowered its FY15 guidance by following other corporations by blaming currency and foreign exchange. The stock is down slightly in the pre-market.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 1.3%
7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report
8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – Fed’s Powell Speaks
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
11:45 am CT – Fed’s Mester Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 2/4:
Before Market: AGN, CLX, CTSH, GM, HUM, MRK, RL, SMG, SNE, SO, TM, WHR
After Market: ALL, CLR, HAIN,GMCR, SU, UA, WSTL, YUM
Equities dumped the last half hour of the day on Wednesday as the ECB pulled a waiver from Greece that allowed them to use their debt as collateral. Greece did not meet minimum credit rating requirements but used the waiver to access liquidity. Stocks were choppy throughout the session as lower oil attempted to send equities into the red. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply higher as investors are shrugging off the news out of Greece as they believe its isolated from the rest of the Euro-Zone. Option volatility jumped at the end of the day on the Greece news. The CBOE Volatility Index rose over 5% and we may see a continuation of the recent volatile moves.
Treasuries are lower this morning and have pulled back sharply from overnight highs as stocks reversed into positive territory. Overseas, markets in Europe have rebounded from lows and are now only down slightly. Asian markets were off 1% on the heels of the news out of Greece. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged this morning and maintained the size of its asset purchase program. Economic data due today include International Trade, Weekly Jobless Claims, Productivity long with weekly natural gas inventories. The MBA reported a 1.3% bounce in mortgage applications for the week ended January 30. The Fed’s Rosengren stated that a lower interest rate environment is still warranted at this point. Along with economic data, earnings announcements today include LinkedIn (LNKD), Twitter (TWTR), and Yelp (YELP).
Stock Stories:
Yum Brands (YUM) –It's Still fast food – The fast-casual restaurant company reported mixed earnings after the close yesterday. KFC’s growth in China continues to recover but is still weighing on results. The company will rely on improvements as its guidance was optimistic going forward on their conference call. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) – filtering – The single serve coffee giant posted lower than expected earnings results yesterday as both EPS and Revenue came in light. The company did not perform particularly well during a typical high-bar holiday season, which may signal more pain to come. The stock is down over 7% in the pre-market.
Equities were strong throughout Thursdays session as Oil recovered from Wednesdays sell-off. Crude continues to gyrate and is positive today despite the massive build in inventories this week. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are flat to slightly higher as investors await the release of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report. Analysts are predicting that the economy added 230K nonfarm jobs and 223K private sector jobs last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.6%. Option volatility dumped on the stock rally yesterday and may see some consolidation today. The CBOE Volatility Index fell 8% and quick complacency may be taking hold again.
Treasuries have posted small gains in tandem with most overseas markets. The 10-year yield dipped to 1.80% from the 1.82% close yesterday. Volume was thin, however, with trading cautious ahead of the January employment report. Equities are modestly lower in the Euro-Zone amid ongoing uncertainties over Greece but China fell almost 2% overnight. There wasn't much news overnight to provide direction, and all eye are now on the jobs data, where risk is for a tepid report. The dovish Atlanta Fed president Lockhart will speak on the economy in the afternoon.
Stock Stories:
Twitter (TWTR) –Mediocre=Good? – The social media company reported earnings after the close yesterday and they were slightly higher than expected. Despite the beat, the user base deceleration looks poised to continue, which is not a positive for a growth company. The shares are up 10% ahead of the opening bell, which is what the option markets had priced in.
LinkedIn (LNKD) – Buy anything? – The business social media company reported a slightly better than expected earnings report last night. The company sees Q1 revenue below estimates but FY15 to meet expectations. Traders have bid the stock up 10% in the pre-market which seems too bullish compared to results and guidance.
Investors shook off a strong Jobs Report on Friday to finish slightly lower. Concerns over Greece and the issues in Ukraine finally put some perspective into the markets. The trend of sell-offs on Fridays have become commonplace as traders take some risk off the table into the weekends. Despite this, stocks saw a solid rally for the week. Oil prices lifting put a bid into equities early in the week. The ECB threw a wrench into the rally midweek as they took away the waiver on funding from Greece. Higher oil prices again on Thursday and a better than expected jobless claims number also helped push stocks higher. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 3% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) led gains up 3.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) finished higher by 2.4% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) rose 3.4%. All four major indices are now about flat for the year.
With equities up on the week, Option volatility took a dump last week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 17% and is sitting right at its 50-day moving average. Although the U.S. economic data and corporate news remains robust, there are cracks in the reports and geopolitical concerns are numerous. Many analysts believe the markets are topping out near all-time highs once again. The jobs report showed solid gains and wage growth finally ticked up substantially, which have many positively optimistic.
Treasury yields were up sharply this past week as the positive move in stocks in the latter part had investors moving to ‘Risk-On’ mode. Surging Oil (/CL) prices helped pressure Bonds prices which in turn causes yields to move higher. The bottom line is that a somewhat improved labor market and the potential for Fed action early this year has led to higher Treasury rates. Despite a massive rise in inventories on Wednesday, Oil saw a solid rally this past week. Crude finished up 9% for the week but higher supply and lower demand should cap any more significant rallies in the near-term.
Although this upcoming week is relatively light on economic data, they are some key reports due. After Friday's better-than-expected employment report, traders will be looking to see if the consumer sector gains in other aspects. The JOLTS report is posted Tuesday and the key question is whether increases in job openings continue. Retail sales declined in December despite lower gasoline prices and auto sales remained volatile. We may see more of the same for January on both factors but with the underlying trend still healthy. Readings on the consumer mood have been relatively strong and on Friday we get an update for early February from the University of Michigan. Earnings season also continues and a few Blue Chips are due to slowly finish up the quarterly results.
Stocks are continuing Friday’s late afternoon sell-off as the global markets react to the Greek news. Newly installed Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras yesterday said his government would repeal Greece's austerity program and reject any extension of the country's bailout, likely creating a confrontation between the country and the rest of the EU. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply lower as European markets also declined on the news. Former Fed Chief Greenspan also weighed in on the unrest by stating it’s just a matter of time before Greece leaves the Euro-Zone. We should see a solid pop in option volatility this morning if stocks continue to trade in the red.
Treasuries have reversed from last week’s sell-off and are sharply higher this morning. The 10-year yield settled last Friday at 1.94% but should give up some gains today as demand for the safety of Bonds picks up. On top of the Greek issues, Trade Data out of China showed sluggish demand from abroad and home. In January, exports slid 3.3% and imports dived more than 19%, leaving a hefty trade surplus for the month. Economic data is light today with only the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index reporting and there is no substantial corporate results due.
Stock Stories:
Exxon Mobil (XOM) –Catch up? – The oil and energy giant has withstood the drop in crude prices much better than expected. Despite the 48% drop in oil prices over the last six months, Exxon has only fallen by 12.5% as many analysts believe their diversity negates the shocking dump in crude. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell, as an analyst downgrade has pressure on the shares.
After Market: AKAM, GNW, LOCK, WU作者: TeasedByWS 时间: 2015-2-9 20:39
作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-2-10 09:59
2/10/2015
U.S. stock futures (/ES) are indicating that the market will bounce at the open, as stocks' volatility continues to be high. The new Greek government has been at odds with the other euro-zone members about the conditions attached to Athens' bailout package, and the Greek finance minister reportedly said that the country would propose a compromise deal, causing futures to rise. There are also rumors that the Euro-Zone will extend liquidity needs for an additional 6 months. Crude oil prices (/CL) are slightly lower this morning as they near resistance levels. Recent announcements of capital expenditure reductions and well shutdowns by a number of oil companies has helped steady oil prices. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose sharply yesterday as weakness in stocks was widespread. We should see the ‘Fear Gauge’ reverse lower this morning if stocks remain in positive territory.
Bonds are selling off sharply as stocks rise this morning. The 10-year yield is approaching the 2% level and the trend has been higher for the last week after bottoming near 1.65% recently. The focus remains on Greece ahead of tomorrow's Euro-zone finance minister meeting. The leftist Syriza government and its right wing coalition partner Independent Greeks are holding a confidence vote in parliament. Data overnight was mostly disappointing, especially Chinese inflation. The U.S. calendar is light with the focus on the $24 B in 3-year note auction. Data includes December JOLTS, wholesale trade, and weekly chain store sales. The hawkish Fed president Lacker (voter) speaks on the economy at 7:20 am CT.
Stock Stories:
Coca-Cola (KO) –Who still drinks soda?! – The beverage giant reported better than expected quarterly results this morning. The company beat on the top and bottom lines as their strategic initiatives take hold. The CEO stated that 2015 will be a transition year as the company executes key planning to leverage the brand. The shares are up over 2% ahead of the opening bell.
Tuesday saw massive gains in stocks as investors sought out domestic shares. The rally was sparked by rumors that the Euro-zone would give a six month extension to Greece on its bailout package. Despite Germany squashing this rumor, stocks continued to rally. This morning, U.S. stock futures (/ES) are slightly lower ahead of the opening bell. Focus may once again be on Greece as its creditors are meeting to discuss the newly elected governments demands. Option volatility took a hit yesterday as stocks rallied into the close. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 7% and is sitting right at its 50-day moving average. Volatility remains firm even with stocks only 1% below all-time highs.
Treasuries are slightly higher in tandem with most global bond markets today. The 10-year yield is down to 1.98% after moving above 2% yesterday for the first time in a month. Overseas, equities are in the red as risk appetite is cautious heading into the Euro-zone meeting on Greece. In the U.S. today the $24 B 10-year auction will dominate the focus at noon CT. The economic slate is light with just the January Treasury budget and oil inventories. The MBA reported mortgage applications dove 9.0% in the week ended February 6 despite the fall in rates. There are a number of earnings reports that will be of interest, including Baidu (BIDU), Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Tesla (TSLA).
Stock Stories:
Pepsico (PEP) –Doritos are great! – The snack food/beverage giant reported better than expected quarterly results this morning. Although the soft drink segment is weakening, the snack food sector continues to grow. The shares are up over 3% ahead of the opening bell.
After Market: BYD, CBS, GRPN, KRFT, SFLY, SON, TIME, WWE作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-2-12 09:49
2/12/2015
Stocks were choppy on hump day and continued to ride the rollercoaster after the close and overnight. A late spike higher after the close on a rumored deal with Greece and the Euro-zone was quickly quashed as stocks fell throughout the night. This morning, U.S. stock futures (/ES) are sharply higher ahead of the opening bell as a proposed cease-fire with Russia in eastern Ukraine was announced. Markets continue to be driven by geopolitical news and rumors so the chop may continue. Option volatility reflected the moves in equities as it was relatively flat throughout Wednesday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) should be under pressure today as stocks build upside momentum.
Bonds are taking their cue from the rise in stocks as they are sharply lower. The risk on trade has been in favor the last week and will continue today. The 10-year yield is back above 2% as optimism over an earlier rate hike is growing. Overseas, equities are also higher in both Asia and in Europe on the cease-fire deal. The outlier was the UK after the Bank of England predicted a faster pace of inflation, which may suggest earlier and more rate hikes than were priced in. In the U.S. today the Retail Sales and Weekly Jobless Claims will be in focus. There will also be an important 30-year Bond auction at noon CT.
Stock Stories:
Tesla (TSLA) –Stalled – The electric car maker posted a big miss on its earnings call yesterday after the close. Analysts are piling on the downgrades this morning as growth stalls. The shares are taking a beating down 8% ahead of the opening bell.
After Market: BYD, CBS, GRPN, KRFT, SFLY, SON, TIME, WWE
Friday – 2/13:
Before Market: DTE, EXC, SJM, TRW, VF
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-2-13 09:51
2/13/2015
Stocks took another big leap up yesterday as investors shook off a downbeat Retail Sales number. The data showed that the ‘tax break’ due to lower gas prices has not equated into more consumer spending, which is a big concern going forward. This morning, U.S. stock futures (/ES) are slightly higher as the rally looks to continue. Most major indices are just below all-time highs again and we could see these levels taken out today. We have seen recent weakness on Friday’s in 2015 as trader’s take off some risk going into the weekends. Option volatility reflected the moves in equities as it was lower throughout yesterday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still higher compared to the last time equites were at these levels so that is something to watch.
Treasuries are a lower, in conjunction with weakness in overseas bonds, albeit in light volume. The 10-year yield has risen to 2.01%, but remains inside recent ranges. Stocks around the world are in the green after a better than expected Euro-zone and German GDP numbers and following optimism over Ukraine and Greek issues. Additionally, crude oil has climbed above $52 a barrel despite huge inventories. Today's U.S. data includes trade prices and preliminary consumer sentiment for February. Dallas Fed Fisher speaks again on monetary policy, and is likely to reprise his comments from earlier this week.
Stock Stories:
Apple (AAPL) –The fruit of everyone’s eye – The tech product- maker settled at an all-time high as analyst upgrades and activist investors continue to pile on the ‘Buy’ recommendations. Optimism on the upcoming iWatch is positive heading into spring. The shares are up again this morning ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Import & Export Prices
9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 2/13:
Before Market: DTE, EXC, SJM, TRW, VF
After Market: N/A
Tuesday – 2/17:
Before Market: GT, MDT, MGM, PES, WLT, WM
After Market: A, ADI, CF, FOSL, JACK, LZB, NBR, PBPB, RAX, VNO作者: 读读书 时间: 2015-2-13 17:48
This past week, the Dow Industrials ($DJI) moved back above $18K for the first time since the end of 2014. Investors ignored downbeat economic data and sent small caps and the benchmark S&P 500 to another round of all-time highs. This is second week of solid gains and markets are back to ignoring warning signs and moving into riskier stocks. Oil stabilized early in the week and ended up solidly this week. Poor retail sales data and a missed consumer confidence number did nothing to derail the rally. The situation in the Ukraine stabilized on the cease-fire news and a solution to the Greece debt issues may be coming to an end. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 2% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) jumped a modest 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led the gains up 3.6% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) rose 1.4%. All four major indices are now positive for the year.
With equities up on the week, Option volatility took another hit last week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 15% and dropped below support at its 50-day moving average. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is now back to its 200-day moving average near $14.70. Although the U.S. stocks are at all-time highs, there are cracks according to the option markets. The open interest in Put/Call ratio is at elevated levels. This may be forecasting a sharp soon or high nervousness for equities.
Treasury yields were up modestly this past week as the positive move in stocks in the had investors moving to ‘Risk-On’ mode. The 10-year yield settled above 2% for the first time since the beginning of the year. Interest Rates and Inflation remain low but P/E valuations are getting stretched but markets continue to surge. Higher Oil (/CL) prices also helped stocks and put pressure on Bonds prices which in turn causes yields to move higher. Crude finished up slightly for the week and are now firmly above $50 a barrel.
Although this upcoming week is relatively modest on economic data, they are some key reports due. Housing numbers are out on Tuesday and Wednesday to start the week. The first read on inflation is also due with the release of the PPI on Wednesday. The main focus may be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon, which will provide some insight on potential Interest Rate increases. There will be more talks on the debt assistance to Greece on Monday which could provide markets with some volatility this week. U.S. Markets are closed on Monday for the President’s Day holiday.
The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) settled at all-time highs on Friday as positive optimism grows despite geopolitical risks. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are mixed but off their lowest levels from overnight. The talks over Greece’s bailout broke down yesterday. Athens has until Friday to reach a deal with its euro-zone partners. Investors are making their way back from the holiday weekend, but winter storms around the country have slowed down their return, especially in the Northeast. On the continued rise in stocks, volatility fell throughout Friday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is below $15 and has trended lower over the week on the rally.
Global markets are mixed as the U.S. reopens from the long holiday weekend. There were small gains in core European bonds and a rally in Asian sovereigns. Concerns over Greece after Euro-group talks stalled prompted some safe haven buying, but gains have been pared. Meanwhile, solid German data saw equities climb which helped the U.S. markets. Traders will keep one eye on overseas action today, but will be turning attention to the late January FOMC minutes (Wednesday) for direction this week. Today's data calendar includes production and housing reports with the February Empire State index, the February NAHB housing market index, along with December Treasury International Capital flows.
Stock Stories:
Twitter (TWTR) –Stretched? – The social media company has continued to out-perform in the sector. Facebook (FB) shares have stabilized but Twitter has risen despite a mediocre growth story. The shares are off slightly this morning and are now over 14% above its 200-day moving average.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey
9:00 am CT– Housing Market Index
11:45 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks
3:00 pm CT – Treasury Intl. Capital
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 2/17:
Before Market: GT, MDT, MGM, PES, WLT, WM
After Market: A, ADI, CF, FOSL, JACK, LZB, NBR, PBPB, RAX, VNO
Wednesday – 2/18:
Before Market: ANGI, CNK, DVN, DUK, GRMN, HLT, NI
After Market: ACT, CAR, DRYS, EOG, FLR, MRO, MAR, SCTY, SUN, Z作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-2-18 09:45
本帖最后由 mooncake 于 2015-2-18 08:48 编辑
2/18/2015
Stocks were quiet to begin the Holiday-shortened week yesterday but the S&P 500 Index (SPX) settled at another all-time high. Despite Greece walking away from discussions with the Euro-group, stocks continue to rise. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are mixed and seem to be waiting for news to move. There is optimism that Greece and euro-zone leaders will reach a compromise that will enable Greece's bailout to continue. Any geopolitical announcement or U.S. data should drive markets in today’s session. Despite the slight rise in stocks on Tuesday, volatility rose sharply during session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 7% but was mainly higher as it was the last day to trade the Feb contract so the rise may be skewed.
Treasuries are relatively flat in light trading with many Asian markets closing for New Year and Golden Week holidays. The 10-year yield has risen to 2.15% and has trended higher since the start of the month. Overseas sovereigns declined amid hopes Greece will ask for a loan extension by the end of the week, suggesting the government might accept a bailout (which isn't the same thing). Attention is also turning to today's January 27, 28 FOMC minutes, which will be released this afternoon. Many in the markets are looking for a more upbeat assessment in general. There is also Chair Yellen's Monetary Policy Report next week and trader's will look for clues if the word "patient" is removed at the March 17, 18 FOMC meeting. The end would be to keep a June rate hike on the table. Today's data includes January housing starts, January industrial production and January PPI. The MBA reported mortgage applications dropped another 13.2% in the week ended February 13.
Stock Stories:
Exxon Mobil (XOM) –Still stretched? – The energy giant is down only 11% as oil has fallen 50% in the same time frame since July 2014. Although the company is diversified, we should see the price of crude severely affect XOM’s bottom line. Warren Buffet dumped his entire stake in the company last quarter and we may see the shares under continued pressure if crude prices remain at current levels or lower.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – 13.2% drop
7:30 am CT – Housing Starts
7:30 am CT – PPI
8:15 am CT – Industrial Production
1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 2/18:
Before Market: ANGI, CNK, DVN, DUK, GRMN, HLT, NI
After Market: ACT, CAR, DRYS, EOG, FLR, MRO, MAR, SCTY, SUN, Z
Thursday – 2/19:
Before Market: BCC, DAN, DTV, DISH, GG, HRL, IMAX, PCLN, WMT
Stocks were quiet yesterday as the S&P 500 Index (SPX) traded in a tight range. According to reports, Greece formally submitted its request for a six month extension of its loans from the euro-zone today. The euro-zone's finance ministers are expected to meet tomorrow to consider the request from Athens, which made major concessions. In its extension request, the new Greek government made clear it would not accept the austerity requirements agreed to by previous regimes. Despite the request, Germany reportedly stated that the six-month loan extension is not "a substantial proposal' for a solution. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are mixed again as they look for direction. The FOMC released the minutes from January’s meeting on Wednesday and the consensus looked to favor more dovish action on interest rates this year. They remain data dependent and gave hints that patience on rates may be warranted. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) traded relatively flat during the session as it reflected the range-bound trading in stocks.
After the close last night, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude inventories rose much more than expected, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices (/CL) this morning. The weekly Department of Energy crude report is due out at 10:00 am CT. Treasuries are slightly lower with many Asian markets closed for New Year and Golden Week holidays. The 10-year yield pulled back to 2.06% yesterday as Bonds rose after the FOMC meeting but are up modestly this morning. Today's data includes Weekly Jobless Claims, the PMI Manufacturing Index and energy inventories. The markets will continue to react to news out of the Euro-Zone but still look to be on a higher trend.
Stock Stories:
Priceline (PCLN) –Bidding up – The online travel site posted better than expected earnings this morning as they beat expectations on the top and bottom lines. The company authorized a larger stock buy-back program despite a slight pull-back in guidance in Q1. The shares are up 7% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index - Flash
9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey
9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
10:00 am CT – Oil Inventories
Notable Earnings:
Thursday – 2/19:
Before Market: BCC, DAN, DTV, DISH, GG, HRL, IMAX, PCLN, WMT
After Market: BRCD, CROX, FTR, INTU, JWN, MRVL, NEM, TSR
Friday – 2/20:
Before Market: DE, IRM
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-2-20 09:49
2/20/2015
Dismal volume and no catalysts led to stocks trading in a tight range on Thursday. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower as they look for direction. Despite Greece's fast approaching day of reckoning, global equities have remained firm. The country is running out of money, and many analysts are convinced that Athens could be on its way out of the euro-zone. The euro-zone's finance ministers will meet today to discuss Greece’s latest proposal to extend its loans. There will be little else for investors to focus on, as little economic data is slated to be released, and earnings season is essentially over. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) traded in lock step with equities and saw little movement. It feels as if the markets are setting up for a significant move but direction is a coin flip at this point.
Treasuries are firmer, in tandem with most global bonds, amid worries over "Grexit." The 10-year Treasury yield has dipped back to 2.08%. Trading volume was thinned by the New Year & Golden Week holidays in Asia. The main news overnight was a Magazine report that ECB officials are preparing for a Greek exit. Gold has traded higher, while Dollar (/DX) continues to rally. Greece will remain the immediate focus, but attention will be turning to Fed Chair Yellen's Monetary Policy Report on Tuesday and what she might indicate over the Fed's policy path. There's little on today's calendar to distract with just the flash Manufacturing PMI for February.
Stock Stories:
Deere & Co. (DE) –Bulldozed – The heavy machinery manufacturer posted better than expected quarterly results this morning, albeit on lowered estimates. Despite an endorsement from Buffet, the company once again lowered guidance moving forward. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index - Flash
9:00 am CT – Atlanta Fed Business Expectations
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 2/20:
Before Market: DE, IRM
After Market: N/A
Monday – 2/23:
Before Market: AU, CTB, DISH
After Market: AGU, ESRX, THC, VVUS作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-2-22 18:39
February 22, 2015
This past week was the quietest on Wall Street since the start of the year. Volumes were light in most sessions despite the geopolitical news and February expiration cycle. Stocks finished the week with modest gains as a deal for Greece to remain in the Euro-Zone kept equities moving higher. Investors ignored most economic data and sent small caps and the benchmark S&P 500 to another round of all-time highs. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 0.6% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) rose a modest 0.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led the gains up 1.3% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) rose 0.7%. All four major indices are up modestly for the year with the tech sector leading the charge mainly on the back of Apple (AAPL).
With equities up only moderately for the week, Option volatility only fell slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 2.6% and dropped below support at its 200-day moving average. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is low but still above levels from last year when stocks were at all-time highs. Treasury yields firmed up this past week as more upside in stocks in the had investors continuing the migration to ‘Risk-On’ mode. Oil futures (/CL) continued to fall on supply concerns. The two biggest daily moves were Wednesday and Friday. The price of crude fell sharply Wednesday on anticipation of the one day delayed (due to the Monday holiday) government report on supply that was expected to hit a record high. As expected, Thursday's report showed an 80-year high for inventories of crude.
Consumer sector news was favorable with a drop in initial jobless claims. But housing and industrial production are sluggish. Meanwhile, inflation is low and the Fed appears to be inclined to keep policy rates low. The upcoming week is full of economic data and a final push on some key corporate results. Housing has been mixed and winter months have sizeable seasonal factors. Traders will be watching for news on existing home sales, new home sales, and pending home sales. New price data will post for Case-Shiller and FHFA. Manufacturing also has been soft and the durables report on Wednesday will garner attention. The Fed is balancing the labor market with inflation data. So, this week's CPI report could affect Fed decision making. Second revision to fourth quarter GDP growth will also be posted. Fed Chair Yellen is also due to give her semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – AU, CTB, DISH
P.M. –AGU, ESRX, THC, VVUS
Tuesday:
A.M. – AMT, BMO, CMCSA, DPZ, DYN, HD, KATE, M, ODP, SPWR, TOL, VRX, VAL
P.M.– CLR, CLGX, FSLR, HPQ, PZZA, SINA, WBMD
Wednesday:
A.M. – CPB, CHK, DLTR, LOW, SODA, TGT, TJX
P.M. – CRM, DRYS, LB, RIG, TIVO, WDAY
Thursday:
A.M. – BUD, DDD, GOGO, KSS, RBS, SHLD, TWI, TD
P.M. – CROX, GPS, HLF, JCP, ROST, SWN, YOKU
Friday:
A.M. –N/A
Economic Releases (2/23 – 2/27):
Monday:
7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed Activity Index
8:45 am CT– PMI Services Flash
9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales
9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey
Tuesday:
8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 am CT– Consumer Confidence
9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks
9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 2-Year Note Auction Results
Wednesday:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
9:00 am CT – New Home Sales
9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results
Thursday:
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index
7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders
8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
11:40 am CT – Fed’s Lockhart Speaks
12:00 pm CT – 7-Year Note Auction Results
Friday:
7:30 am CT – GDP
8:45 am CT– Chicago PMI
9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment
9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index
Fed’s Dudley Speaks
Fed’s Mester Speaks
Fed’s Fischer Speaks作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-2-23 09:49
2/23/2015
The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) settled at another all-time high on Friday and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) is approaching 5000. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower at the start of the week. The California dock worker’s strike appears to have been settled, potentially saving the U.S. economy $2B per day. In another positive development, Euro-zone finance ministers and Greek officials reached an agreement on a short-term bailout deal last Friday. Although there are mixed economic reports and geopolitical concerns, stocks remain elevated and option volatility is at low levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is near the $14 level but could see a bid this week with plenty of market-moving news due, including testimony from Yellen on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Treasuries are moving higher after paring overnight declines. Core sovereigns overseas are weak but are also off their lows. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.11% and have trended higher over the last two weeks despite the Fed signaling patience. Despite Friday's agreement to extend Greece's bailout, Germany has yet to receive the list of reforms from Greece. Also, Germany's Business Climate Index missed, rising less than expected. U.S. equity futures are modestly lower, against the grain of small gains in Europe and Asia. Attention is turning to Fed Chair Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins testimony and whether she will hint at a mid-year rate hike. Today's releases include January existing home sales, the flash services PMI for February and the February Dallas Fed PMI. The Treasury also starts $90 B in auctions tomorrow.
Stock Stories:
Boeing (BA) –Cat Fight! – The aircraft-maker received an analyst upgrade on Friday which sent shares up 3% to all-time highs. The company and the aerospace sector received a massive downgrade today so the analyst battle is on. The shares are down over 1.5% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed Activity Index
8:45 am CT– PMI Services Flash
9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales
9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey
Notable Earnings:
Modnday – 2/23:
Before Market: AU, CTB, DISH
After Market: AGU, ESRX, THC, VVUS
Tuesday – 2/24:
Before Market: AMT, BMO, CMCSA, DPZ, DYN, HD, KATE, M, ODP, SPWR, TOL, VRX, VAL
After Market: CLR, CLGX, FSLR, HPQ, PZZA, SINA, WBMD作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-2-24 09:24
2/24/2015
We saw another day of little action to start the week. Housing numbers were weaker than expected and Oil (/CL) fell sharply but investors ignored the news and we finished the day essentially flat. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are flat again as traders look for direction. Traders will watch more Housing data today but the main focus will be on Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress over the next two days. Investors will watch for any hawkish tone to her statements as employment and growth seems to warrant higher interest rates. Some say she could surprise investors by keeping alive the possibility of a June rate hike, even though the minutes of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting showed a dovish tone. She also could provide some additional volatility to the markets which has been muted recently.
Bonds are a little lower, in tandem with modest losses in core European sovereigns as Greece is close to finalizing its bailout extension. The 10-year Treasury yield has edged up to 2.07%. Trading was rather restrained, however, as the market awaits Fed Chair Yellen's testimony. There wasn't much news overnight. Japanese services PPI fell 0.5% in January, while Euro-zone data was as expected, with German Q4 GDP at 0.7%. Attention will be squarely focused on Yellen today and what she might suggest about the policy path. Today's data on February consumer confidence, the December Case-Shiller home price index and weekly chain store sales will be overlooked. The Treasury is auctioning $26 B in 2-year notes, kicking off $90 B in 2-, 5-, and 7-year note offerings over the next three days.
Stock Stories:
Home Depot (HD) –Cleaning up – The home improvement retailer posted another blow-out quarter this morning on its earnings call. Better than expected EPS and Revenue showed continued strong growth as the stock sits at all-time highs. The shares are up 3.5% ahead of the opening bell, which is slightly more than the option market was pricing in.
Major Economic Reports:
8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 am CT– Consumer Confidence
9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks
9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 2-Year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 2/24:
Before Market: AMT, BMO, CMCSA, DPZ, DYN, HD, KATE, M, ODP, SPWR, TOL, VRX, VAL
After Market: CLR, CLGX, FSLR, HPQ, PZZA, SINA, WBMD
Wednesday – 2/25:
Before Market: CPB, CHK, DLTR, LOW, SODA, TGT, TJX
The Benchmark S&P 500 index (SPX) and the small cap sector (RUT, IWM) rose to another round of all-time highs yesterday. Testimony from Fed Chair Yellen yesterday reiterated that the Fed would take a patient approach to raising interest rates. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower as traders look for a catalyst to bring back movement and volumes. Traders will watch more Housing data today but the main focus will be on Fed Chair Yellen’s second day of testimony to the House. Option volatility sank as stocks ground higher. The low volume totals are showing that the rally is not fully supported but the trend is higher. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) settled below $14 for the first time since the beginning of December.
Treasuries are little changed to slightly higher on follow-through from Yellen's testimony yesterday. The 10-year yield has dipped to 1.97% and a close here would be the lowest since the first week of February. Bonds rallied sharply on Tuesday with the thought that rates will remain lower and the hike won’t come until after the summer. Global bonds are higher as well this morning and Germany sold 5-year notes at a negative yield of -0.08%. Stocks are mostly lower even after China's manufacturing PMI beat expectations as growth worries remain. There's also concern Greece will not be able to meet its obligations. The markets will focus on Yellen's House testimony today, though analysts doubt she will change her tune. The Treasury auctions $35 B in 5-year notes and data includes January new home sales. The MBA reported a 3.5% decline in mortgage applications for the week ended February 20 and continues to weaken despite low rates.
Stock Stories:
First Solar (FSLR) –renewable – The solar company had a mixed earnings report last night after the closing bell. Although guidance was lowered, the company had announced a partnership with another company for future investments yesterday, which had the shares up over 10% on Tuesday. We have a couple of analyst upgrades this morning and the stock is reacting positively as it is up over 2% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 3.5%
9:00 am CT – New Home Sales
9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 2/25:
Before Market: CPB, CHK, DLTR, LOW, SODA, TGT, TJX
After Market: CRM, DRYS, LB, RIG, WDAY
Thursday – 2/26:
Before Market: BUD, DDD, GOGO, KSS, RBS, SHLD, TWI, TD
The Dow Industrials ($DJI) closed at another all-time high yesterday in another quiet session. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the small cap sector (RUT, IWM) also hit record levels yesterday afternoon before falling towards the close. The Nasdaq broke its 10-day winning streak as Apple (AAPL) shares were weak. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly higher as investors ignore any negative news. The final day of testimony from Fed Chair Yellen yesterday did little to stop the Bulls but the exchanges were a little more heated with the House members. Option volatility was also muted on Wednesday as equities were mixed. There is plenty of data due today to sway stocks and hopefully we will see some additional movement. Comments this morning from noted Fed Hawk Bullard stated that they should remove the word ‘patient’ from their statement and have a clear path to a rate hike, which could also move stocks.
Global bonds are higher today and have been trending up this week. Many Euro-zone yields have dropped to new all-time lows after dovish Draghi comments late yesterday and ahead of the start of their QE. Bond gains comes despite some better European data and gains in equities. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.94%, still driven lower from Yellen's testimony. Today's highlight is the January CPI report where there is risk the y/y pace falls into negative territory. Also today is the January durable orders data, as well as weekly initial jobless claims and the FHFA home price index for December. The Treasury auctions $29 B in 7-year notes to finish up supply this week. Focus will then move to Friday’s Q4 GDP which will be reported and it is expected to be revised lower.
Stock Stories:
Starbucks (SBUX) –buzzing – The coffee giant got more price target upgrades over the last couple of days. Comments from the CFO and optimism on growth has Wall Street pushing shares to additional all-time highs. The valuation is rising and the shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index
7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders
8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
11:40 am CT – Fed’s Lockhart Speaks
12:00 pm CT – 7-Year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Thursday – 2/26:
Before Market: BUD, DDD, GOGO, KSS, RBS, SHLD, TWI, TD
After Market: CROX, GPS, HLF, JCP, ROST, SWN, YOKU
Friday – 2/27:
Before Market: ISIS, NRG
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-2-27 09:46
2/27/2015
Stocks finished the day mixed yesterday and were led by the tech heavy Nasdaq (QQQ), which rallied on the back of Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG/GOOGL) and Facebook (FB). This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower ahead of a key update on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Investors will use the GDP data to see if the economy’s growth is still present. The number is expected to be revised as fourth quarter preliminary expectations have been brought down. Anything above 2% will most likely be positive for equities. Option volatility was also muted on Thursday as equities continue to chop in a tight range near all-time highs. Thursday’s data was again mixed but had little negative effect on U.S. Stocks.
Bonds are lower again today after a turn lower yesterday. The 10-year yield popped back over 2% on Thursday as Treasuries were under pressure into the close. There is more rhetoric in the Euro-Zone as there are expectations that Greece will need a third bailout. Germany continues to push the issue in the media and comments by the European economic leaders are not favorable to Greece. It will be interesting to see if stocks can hold their high levels into the weekend. Today's highlights besides the GDP data are the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and Consumer Sentiment.
Stock Stories:
Exxon Mobil (XOM) –Slipping on Oil – The energy company’s stock continues to fall as oil prices weaken. Despite the dump in shares, we saw massive call buying in the option market, which may be signaling the thought of a near-term bottom in the stock. This morning, the shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.
We saw another slow week on Wall Street as stocks feel like they are topping out near all-time highs. Despite the muted moves this week, the Benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) notched its largest one-month gain since October 2011 by rallying 5.5% in February. The rallies were never massive but the grind higher was consistent for almost the entire month. The accommodative stance from Central Banks around the world had investors pouring into the riskier asset classes such as stocks. Volumes continued to be light and the daily moves only averaged less than 0.5% in either direction. Many are predicting a more volatile month in March but we will need geopolitical news and economic data to drive markets as earnings season is essentially over. Almost 90% of the S&P 500 stocks have reported quarterly results and just under 70% have beaten expectations compared with 74% at the same time last year. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) were basically flat as were the tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) and the small caps (RUT, IWM).
With equities trending near the flat line all week, Option volatility only fell slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 6.7% and is approaching the multi-year support level near $12. The ‘Fear Gauge’ should see some additional movement into March as investors may feel the all-time highs are due for a pull-back. The economy continues to grow but not consistently. The bright spot continues to be the consumer due in part to healthy optimism from declining inflation and energy prices. Geopolitical risks may increase also as Greece and the ‘cease fire’ in Ukraine seem to be coiling for a catalyst. Treasury yields fell this past week as the Dovish comments from Fed members put a small bid in Bonds. The 10-year yield fell to 2% and Fed-Speak continues to move bonds prices quickly. Oil futures (/CL) fell modestly this past week as supply and production remains at elevated levels. Rig counts are falling but it has not boosted crude prices at all.
While the fourth quarter got a downgrade, current quarter growth for monthly data are mixed but net moderately positive. Meanwhile, the Fed confirmed that the first rate hike would be no sooner than June. The upcoming week is full of economic data and the all-important Jobs report comes out on Friday. Housing has been mixed but many are predicting a tough Spring selling season. Traders will be watching news on manufacturing and Services this week also. Fed Chair Yellen is speaking again on Tuesday and there will be plenty of Fed-Speak on tap also.
We saw a slight pull-back to end the week last Friday but momentum higher was strong last month. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are mixed to start March. There is plenty of economic data due this week and we wrap up with the February Jobs data on Friday. Oil (/CL) is falling today and is now back below $49 a barrel again. The consumer is holding up the economy at this point as spending has been solid. Option volatility continues to slide as downside catalysts dry up but hopefully we will see some additional movement this week.
Treasuries are flat this morning as investors look for direction. The 10-year Treasury yield fell is back to the 2% level after rising the last two weeks. European stocks are higher as the Euro-Zone posted its lowest jobless rate since 2012. Also, Euro-zone consumer prices fell for the third straight month in February, giving some encouragement to ECB policy makers as they prepare to meet in Cyprus on Wednesday and Thursday to set the stage for their new stimulus program. Asian stocks edged up on Monday after China cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point over the weekend and its PMI climbing to its strongest level since July. In the U.S., Manufacturing data is due today along with a reading on Construction Spending.
Stock Stories:
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) –Sold! – The company sold its Cordis business to Cardinal Health (CAH) for almost $2B. The company’s shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Personal Income & Outlays
8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – Construction Spending
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 3/2:
Before Market: AMBC, BID, SSYS
After Market: ARNA, CZR, MBI, MCP, MYL, SLXP
Tuesday – 3/3:
Before Market: AZO, BBY, DKS, KATE, RST
After Market: BOBE, SWHC作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-3 09:06
3/3/2015
The grind to another round of all-time highs took place to start the month of March. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) settled above $5K for the first time in 15 years yesterday and had its third highest close ever. The comparison is not meaningful as there are now only 48% of the components reflected as tech companies when 15 years ago it was about 65%. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower. There is plenty of economic data due this week and we wrap up with the February Jobs data on Friday. No major catalyst is expected to emerge today, as little economic data is expected to be released. The only major economic data point expected to be unveiled today is auto sales, which takes place throughout the day.
Bonds are lower again today after a massive dump to start the week. The 10-year yield rose back to the 2.1% level and lower Treasury prices are most likely supporting higher equites. European data was mixed with stronger than expected German retail sales, U.K. construction PMI, while Euro-zone PPI was weaker. The U.S. calendar is very slim today with just February vehicle sales and a speech by Yellen tonight. The markets are bracing for key reports later in the week with Friday's February nonfarm payroll release topping the list. Wednesday's slate has February ADP, the ISM services index, along with the Fed's Beige Book. Traders are also awaiting QE details from the ECB on Thursday.
Stock Stories:
Best Buy (BBY) –Plugged in! – The company reported earnings this morning and the results were mixed as Revenue came in light. The company did raise its quarterly Dividend and intends to buy back $1B in shares over the next three years. The shares are up over 4% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
Auto Sales– All Day
7:15 pm CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 3/3:
Before Market: AZO, BBY, DKS, KATE, RST
After Market: BOBE, SWHC
Wednesday – 3/4:
Before Market: ANF, AEO, PETM, REV, TSL
After Market: DAR, VSLR作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-4 09:08
3/4/2015
If you blinked yesterday, you missed an actual down day for stocks. We had broad-based selling and finally saw some substantial volume in the option markets. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are lower again ahead of the private sector ADP jobs report. Payrolls are forecast rising 220k after the disappointing 213k January gain. Option volatility rose as stocks hit the brakes yesterday, albeit modestly. The ‘Fear Gauge’ (VIX) rallied 6% and may be in for some more gains today. Despite all the geopolitical risks and mediocre economic data, investors have been ignoring much downside risk protection according to the markets.
Treasuries are relatively flat after paring earlier losses overnight and since the start of the week. The 10-year note is fractionally cheaper at 2.12% but has seen a nice move higher so far this week. Most equity markets are in the red as well as recent data suggest ongoing central bank accommodation will be coming to an end. Ironically, the Bank of India surprised with its second inter-meeting rate cut in 2 months, trimming it key rate another 25 bps to 7.5%, and the Bank of China also lowered rates further on some short term loans. Meanwhile, Euro-zone and U.K. services PMIs unexpectedly dipped lower, though the numbers still point to solid expansion in the sector. The ECB is expected to leave policy unchanged tomorrow while announcing QE details. There could also be details on whether Greek bonds will be reinstated by the group. Attention is shifting to the ADP private payroll report ahead of Friday's February employment release. Also out today is the February ISM services index and the Fed's Beige Book, which should not break any new ground. There is also Fed-speak from the Uber-Dovish Evans, and the Hawks George and Fisher.
Stock Stories:
Kohls (KSS) –Sold?! – The retailer’s shares are just below all-time highs and are up 22% since the start of 2015. The stock looks overbought on a technical level and is over $10 above its 50-day moving average. A pull-back may be warranted as valuations rise and the shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 0.1%
7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report
8:00 am CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks
8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Non Mfg. Index
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT –Fed’s George Speaks
12:00 pm CT –Fed’s Fisher Speaks
1:00 pm CT – Beige Book
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 3/4:
Before Market: ANF, AEO, PETM, REV, TSL
After Market: DAR, VSLR
Thursday – 3/5:
Before Market: CNQ, CIEN, COST, JOY, KR, SFE
After Market: CKP, DMND, MMI, QIHU, SINA, TFM作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-8 19:16
Weekend Update March 8, 2015
U.S. Markets took a gut shot on Friday after the ultra-bullish announcement of 295K new Jobs created in February inversely hinted towards an earlier than expected rate hike disappointment. Even though the quality of job creation remains questionable with the leisure and hospitality sector seeing the greatest benefit, every other category with the exception of mining/logging still saw modest improvement. The big concern at this stage of the cycle if new highs can still be recorded in this type of environment with rising rates and a stronger dollar.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) screamed 8% higher on Friday as momentum to the downside accelerated throughout the day. Seeing some stability this week will be paramount if the aging bullish trend is to continue. Gold Futures (/GC) had a tough week and closed at the low point of the year after giving up an astonishing $30 per ounce intra-day. The typical safe haven play is expected to now have more competition within other asset classes should rates inch higher. The other big surprise coming out of last week was the 10 Year Treasury’s rapid climb to 2.25% as rates have seen a tectonic shift in sentiment over a rather short time frame.
Earnings season is all but winding down with the exception of several key retail names slated to report during the course of the week. With both monthly retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers also scheduled; the importance of a strong consumer showing can’t be underestimated as the discounted price of oil should convert into more discretionary spending. Another key retail headline will be Apple’s unveiling of the much anticipated watch tomorrow. This event will open the next chapter in Apple’s ongoing success story and the stakes couldn’t be higher with the building hype surrounding the product. News of Apple replacing AT&T for a coveted spot in the DJIA boosted shares on Friday in wake of the broad-based selloff.
A wildcard to watch for this week will be the results of the Bank Stress tests scheduled for Wednesday immediately follow the market close. The eventual rate hike may benefit banks over the long term if reserve requirements remain in check. Any failures may potentially spark apprehension which could further impact the fragility of the market.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – N/A
P.M. –CASY, KFY, QIHU, UNFI, URBN
Tuesday:
A.M. – BKS
P.M.– PAY, WSM
Wednesday:
A.M. –BWS, EXPR, URA
P.M. –KKD, SHAK
Thursday:
A.M. – DG, HOV, MTN, PLCE
P.M. – ARO, LOCO, ULTA, ZUMZ
Friday:
A.M. –BKE, HIBB, TA
P.M. –N/A
Economic Releases (3/9 – 3/13):
Monday:
9:00 am CT – Labor Market Conditions
Tuesday:
8:00 am CT – Small Business Index
9:00 am CT – JOLTS
9:00 am CT – Wholesale Inventories
Wednesday:
9:30 am Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 10 Year Bond Auction
1:00 pm CT – Federal Budget Balance
3:30 pm CT – Bank Stress Test Results
Thursday:
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT – Retail Sales
7:30 am CT – Import Prices
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 30 Year Bond Auction
Friday:
7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)
9:00 am CT–Consumer Sentiment作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-9 08:55
3/9/2015
US Equity markets are stabilizing this morning after Friday’s big flush with S&P 500 futures (/ES) now up fractionally. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) will be an important gauge after reaching $15 with Friday’s route to determine how cautious investors remain going forward. Shares in Europe and Asia were mostly lower as global markets reacted to the U.S based employment news pricing in the higher probabilities of a rate hike sometime over the next quarter. Europe may begin to see more attention as they make ready plans to inject more liquidity into their financial system to spur growth while at the same time the US tries to normalize.
Treasuries are flat this morning after the steep hike in recent sessions fueled the perception of an expedited rate hike . Treasury auctions will be taking place throughout the week which may offer more insight into the sentiment of future expectations. Mortgage applications will also be watched closely as well approaching the busy session for tepid homebuyers to determine if higher rates will stall out the recent recovery.
Domestic news will be mutes today with only Labor Market Conditions scheduled to be released. Apple will likely grab most of the headlines today as a result with the unveiling of their newest watch product at a 12:00 CT exclusive release event. Shares are trading slightly higher ahead of the bell as a result with anticipation building. Retail stocks in general will garner more attention throughout this week with several specialty stores reporting earnings throughout the next several sessions before the monthly retail report will cap off Friday.
Stock Stories:
General Motors (GM) –What’s $5 Billion? – The company announces a new capital plan capped by a $5 Billion buyback to squash an ongoing proxy fight which also included a coveted board seat. Shares are up over 3% pre-market as a result.
McDonald’s (MCD) –Mc hating it? –Shares of McDonalds are down sharply this morning after another disappointing monthly sales report posted a 4% decline in same store sales. The company continues to scramble with new CEO on board to fix their perception problem as consumers continue to choose alternatives.
Major Economic Reports:
9:00 am CT – Labor Market Conditions
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 3/9:
Before Market: N/A
After Market: CASY, KFY, QIHU, UNFI, URBN
Tuesday – 3/10:
Before Market: BKS
After Market: PAY, WSM作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-10 08:32
3/10/2015
Yesterday saw a reversal higher from last Friday’s sell-off but moderate volumes showed little affirmation towards further highs. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply lower as a Fed rate hike has investors concerned. The U.S. Dollar (/DX) is surging higher against overseas rivals. Multi-year highs and heavy volume into the Greenback could provide the rally with more ammo. Monday marked the sixth year anniversary of the Bull Market on Wall Street and many feel we are due for a pull-back as valuations on equities rise. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell modestly to start the week but should spike higher if stocks remain in the red today.
With the dump in stocks, Treasuries are catching a bid and will try to continue yesterday’s strength. The 10-year note is cheaper at 2.15% but may have a support base in if the call for higher rates from the Fed starts in June. An article in the Wall Street Journal also stated that the Fed will drop ‘Patient’ from its statement at next week’s FOMC policy meeting. Overseas is also seeing weakness as Asia finished moderately lower and European shares are continuing to slide into the U.S. open. The 3-year auction headlines in the U.S. today, and will test investor demand. Data is light today with just January JOLTS, January wholesale trade, and weekly chain store sales. Fed-speak will go dark into next week's FOMC meeting. Key data this week is back-ended to Thursday with retail sales and trade prices, and to Friday with PPI and consumer sentiment
Stock Stories:
Qualcomm (QCOM) –All in – The tech chip-maker announced a $15B share buyback plan after the close yesterday. The company has struggled on its last couple of earnings calls but this should appease investors as the financial engineering continues to help stock prices. They also raised their quarterly Dividend on the business update and the shares are up 2% ahead of the opening bell.
Yesterday was brutal for stocks as sellers were out in full force. The Benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell by 1.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) dropped by 1.86% led by losses in Apple (AAPL). U.S. equity futures (/ES) this morning are showing a slight bounce off of the closing lows. The U.S. Dollar (/DX) is surging higher again today and is also being partially blamed for the recent weakness in equities. The Greenback is at levels not seen for 12 years and may be trending to trade even with the Euro. Despite the massive slide in stocks yesterday, option volatility only rose modestly. Typically when stocks fall over 1.5% in one session, we see volatility pop significantly from the recent low levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 10% but may give some of the gains back today if equities remain in positive territory.
Treasuries have drifted lower, giving up gains from overnight as risk appetite rebounds. The 10-year Treasury yield has edged up to 2.15% after hitting 2.09% earlier. European bonds remain higher and the 10-year Bund rate has bounced off a record low of 0.197%. Euro-Zone equities have surged sharply higher as prices recover from yesterday's plunge despite renewed Grexit fears and disappointing U.K. production data. There's little on the U.S. calendar today. The MBA just reported mortgage applications slid 1.3% in the week ended March 6. The February Treasury budget and weekly oil inventories are the only other releases. The Treasury's $21 B 10-year reopening is on tap following a very successful 3-year sale on Tuesday.
Stock Stories:
Citigroup (C) –Beat down – The banking giant fell over 3% on Tuesday as the sector took a beating. Lower rates were the culprit and will drive future movement into next week’s FOMC policy meeting. The shares are bouncing slightly today as they are up ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 1.3%
9:30 am CT - Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 10 Year Bond Auction
1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 3/11:
Before Market: EXPR, VRA
After Market: KKD, MCP, MW, RST, SHAK
Thursday – 3/12:
Before Market: DG, HOV, JASO, MTN, REV
After Market: ARO, LOCO, ULTA, ZUMZ作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-12 08:00
3/12/2015
Traction was still to the downside yesterday for stocks as the rising U.S. Dollar (/DX) continues to weigh on equities. We are seeing a reversal lower this morning in the Greenback and the inverse correlation may continue. U.S. equity futures (/ES) this morning are showing a slight bounce off of the closing lows. Despite the continued weakness in stocks, option volatility remains tepid. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose minimally yesterday but on recent drops in equities, we have seen more strength in the ‘Fear Gauge’. If the weakness continues, we could see the VIX pop back over $20 quickly as complacency for another ‘Buy the Dip’ has expanded.
Treasuries are higher in conjunction with gains in European and Asian bonds. The 10-year yield has dropped several basis points closer to 2.05% on strong trading volume. There was more two-way trading in the dollar versus yesterday's one-way ticket higher. The Bank of Korea unexpectedly cut rates 25 bps to a record low 1.75%. There's ongoing concern over Greece as talks drag on and German data was as expected. In the U.S., data on February retail sales and trade prices will highlight today, while business inventories, jobless claims and the Treasury budget will also be reported. Also, there is a $13 B 30-year bond reopening which winds up the supply this week.
Stock Stories:
Wells Fargo (WFC) –Housing looms – The banking giant has the most exposure to house financing and the sector continues to struggle. While higher rates typically help banks, it may also put a damper on home sales and refinancing. The company passed the Government Stress Test yesterday and the company raised its Dividend. The shares are relatively flat today ahead of the opening bell as they did not announce a stock buyback program.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT – Retail Sales
7:30 am CT – Import Prices
9:00 am CT – Business Inventories
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 30 Year Bond Auction
1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget
Notable Earnings:
Thursday – 3/12:
Before Market: DG, HOV, JASO, MTN, REV
After Market: ARO, LOCO, ULTA, ZUMZ
Friday – 3/13:
Before Market: ANN, BKE
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-13 08:26
3/13/2015
The U.S. Dollar (/DX) finally fell yesterday which in turn caused a massive rally in stocks. The inverse correlation between equities and the Greenback has been consistent recently and the reaction was intact again on Thursday. The rally was in spite of a lower than expected Retail Sales number, which economist are already blaming on the weather. In the pre-market today, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly higher to flat as markets look for direction. Option volatility took a nose-dive yesterday as stocks rose throughout the session. As we expected the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dumped significantly as it had only rallied modestly during weakness earlier in the week. The mixed economic data is only giving the Fed doves the thought that a June rate hike is off the table.
Treasuries are lower this morning and continue to gyrate ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting next week. Today, Russia cut their main interest rate again. It is furthering its effort to stimulate the country’s economy as low oil prices (/CL) and economic sanctions take their toll. European markets were little changed as lower energy prices offset industrial gains. In the U.S., investors will focus on inflation data and the consumer. Although rhetoric about lower gas prices paying off in the retail sector, the consumer has only modestly ramped up spending. We could also see some more chop in the market in front of next week’s FOMC meeting.
Stock Stories:
Herbalife (HLF) –Ponzied! – We could see trading pick up in the shares of the supplement maker/Pyramid product seller today. Activists have been pounding the table on whether the company is a legitimate business. Reports show that the Fed’s have extensively interviewed the main ‘Bear’ activist about their activity.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)
9:00 am CT–Consumer Sentiment
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 3/13:
Before Market: ANN, BKE
After Market: N/A
Monday – 3/16:
Before Market: ANN, BKE
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-16 09:27
3/16/2015
Stocks bounced off of lows on Friday afternoon but were still in the red to end the day. Interest rate concerns and economic data continue to pressure equities. Today, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are showing a slight bounce higher. Stocks seem to be reacting positively to reports that China will expand its efforts to boost economic growth. More gains in Europe are also putting a bid in equities. Option volatility remains in a tight range despite the choppy nature of equity markets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is hovering between its 50 and 200-day moving averages and may remain stable into the Fed meeting this week.
Despite the rise in stocks this morning, Treasuries are also moving higher. The 10-year yield is at 2.09% within its recent tight range. Trading volume should remain muted early in the week as the markets look to Wednesday's FOMC decision where the Fed is expected to ditch the "patient" approach. The dollar (/DX) was slightly lower with crude oil (/CL) in the red again. On today's U.S. slate are the March Empire State index and industrial production, along with the March NHAB homebuilder survey figures, and January TIC data.
Stock Stories:
DuPont (DD) –Activism or Harassment?! – The company CEO responded to an activist proposal from Trian Partners over the weekend. The response stated it was the unanimous conclusion of the board that the proposal does not represent a meaningful step toward a constructive resolution. The company also received an analyst downgrade this morning. The shares are down over 2% ahead of the opening bell and volatility should pick up in trading today.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Empire State Manufacturing
8:15 am CT – Industrial Production
9:00 am CT –Housing Market Index
3:00 pm CT – Treasury International Capital
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 3/16:
Before Market: N/A
After Market: MCP
Tuesday – 3/17:
Before Market: DSW, PLUG
After Market: ADBE, ORCL, PSUN作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-17 08:14
3/17/2015
Stocks had a massive rally to start the week on Monday as global markets pushed higher. It looks as if it may be a tough act to follow today ahead of the start of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This morning, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are showing a slight pull back as the luck of the Irish is nowhere to be seen for stocks on this St. Patrick’s Day. Oil (/CL) is continuing to slide this morning and is below $43 a barrel for the first time since early 2009. Option volatility was relatively strong yesterday despite the pop in equities. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 2.5% but should be higher today if we continue to trade in the red. Volumes may be light today as the FOMC meeting announcement comes tomorrow afternoon and economic data is light.
Bonds are significantly stronger today and rose yesterday also despite the ‘Risk-On’ trade in play. The 10-year yield is falling towards the 2% level again as investors have continued to pour into the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The Dollar (/DX) is down slightly but remains elevated. Overseas, Europe is lower on weaker than expected German data. Asia on the other hand continues to rally as Japan’s Nikkei Index hit another 15-year closing high and China’s Shanghai Index closed at seven-year highs. On today's U.S. slate are Housing starts and earnings after the close from tech bellwether Oracle (ORCL).
Stock Stories:
Apple (AAPL) –Why not?! – Rumors are swirling that the tech product maker is in talks to launch an online television service. The offerings are said to be slim to start but the sector has had a nice run as of late. With the resources and money, AAPL could easily become a major disruptor in the space. The shares are relatively flat ahead of the bell.
Stocks were mixed yesterday ahead of the FOMC meeting as the Benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPY) was off slightly while the Nasdaq (QQQ) finished up modestly. It looks as if it may be a rough start today ahead of the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement. Ahead of the opening bell, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are showing a pull back and have been sliding consistently overnight. Oil (/CL) is continuing to fall again today and many are calling for lows under $40 a barrel. Option volatility was stable as equities bounced around the unchanged level on Tuesday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains above the $15 level but direction will get clarity after 1:30 pm today. Volumes will be light today as the FOMC meeting announcement comes in the afternoon and economic data is light.
Treasuries are modestly higher, in sync with gains in sovereigns overseas. The 10-year note yield has slipped to test 2.02%, the lowest since late February as the market sees little prospect of an overly hawkish Fed. Concurrently, Germany saw a strong 10-year Bund auction. European stock markets are mostly lower as Greek-exit fears flare up again, and are weighing on U.S. equity futures. In the U.S. today, it's all about the FOMC. The policy statement, the economic projections and Yellen's press conference are all awaited for insights on the timing of rate lift-off. The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 3.9% in the week of March 13 and besides the FOMC announcement, the only other item today are oil inventories.
Stock Stories:
Federal Express (FDX) –Delivering? – The delivery giant posted better than expected EPS this morning and revenue was in-line with estimates. The company stated that moderate economic growth should support expectations. The shares were initially up 1.5% after the report this morning but are now down over 1% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications – Down 3.9%
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
1:00 pm CT – FOMC Statement
1:30 pm CT – FOMC Chair Yellen Press Conference
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 3/18:
Before Market: FDX, GIS
After Market: CTAS, GES, JBL, NQ, SCVL, WSM
Thursday – 3/19:
Before Market: LEN
After Market: NKE作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-19 08:24
3/19/2015
The FOMC meeting produced a massive rally in stocks yesterday. The Fed dropped ‘Patience’ from its statement but remains Dovish despite the labor market at multi-year lows for unemployment. Yesterday’s move put the Dow ($DJI) back above 18,000, and for a short time the Nasdaq rose above 5,000 and the S&P (SPX) traded above 2100. Ahead of the opening bell, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are showing a slight pull-back, albeit small. Oil (/CL) is reversing lower after a massive mid-day rally yesterday. Option volatility dropped like a stone on the bullish equity market. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) settled below $14 for the first time in two weeks and volumes were big on the rally.
Treasuries are slightly higher following yesterday's big gains on a more dovish than expected FOMC outcome. The 10-year yield has edged up to 1.94% from an overnight low of 1.89%. Trading volume remained strong as demand for Bonds continues. Bonds and stocks overseas largely tracked yesterday's rally, with some sovereign yields reaching more record lows. The Dollar (/DX) is recovering from yesterday's losses and has moved slightly higher. There are ongoing concerns over Greece's situation, where the ECB boosted emergency funding by an additional 400 M Euros. Today's data calendar won't have much impact as the markets continue to digest and focus on the FOMC. The reports includes the Philly Fed, initial jobless claims and leading indicators.
Stock Stories:
Ebay.com (EBAY) –0 Bids! – The online auction site and PayPal owner received an analyst downgrade this morning. The company will see more competition from Google Wallet and Apple-Pay in the near-term, which may offset the bid put in by the upcoming PayPal spin-off. The shares are down over 2% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
9:00 am CT – Fed’s Tarullo Speaks
9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
Notable Earnings:
Thursday – 3/19:
Before Market: LEN
After Market: NKE
Friday – 3/20:
Before Market: DRI, KBH, TIF
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-20 08:34
3/20/2015
Stocks gave back some of the Fed-induced rally on Thursday as level heads prevailed. Reversals in the U.S. Dollar and less than stellar economic data were the causes for the downturn. In the pre-market today, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are attempting to end the week on a positive note as they are up slightly. Option volatility firmed up but is still hovering at low levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is near the $14 level and has remained in a tight range. We don’t expect this low level of volatility to expand as monetary policy has kept a lid on any risk to the downside for equities. The ‘Buy the Dip’ action is still in full effect and most likely it would take a one-off event to sway the sentiment..
Treasuries are higher again this morning and continue to shoot higher after the Fed’s policy meeting this week. The 10-year yield broke through the 2% mark for the first time in a couple of weeks as demand for Bonds has been strong. Overseas markets are higher as global stocks rally on Central Bank policies. The U.K. and Japanese markets are at multi-year highs and seem to have no concerns at this point. Greece sent a list of accommodations to German and Euro-Zone officials for review over the weekend. This “Grexit’ situation could be the one negative catalyst to spur markets in the near-term. Today is quadruple-witching expiration so that may cause a little volatility in the option markets. Economic data is light but there is Fed-Speak from Lockhart and the Uber-dove Evans today.
Stock Stories:
Nike (NKE) –Did It! – The athletic apparel-maker posted better than expected earnings results after the close yesterday. Expanding margins and strong global sales led the way. The stock is responding positively and is up over 4% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
9:00 am CT – Atlanta Fed business expectations
9:20 am CT – Fed’s Lockhart Speaks
10:30 am CT–Fed’s Evans Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 3/20:
Before Market: DRI, KBH, TIF
After Market: N/A
Monday – 3/23:
Before Market: CCL
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-22 12:56
Weekend Update
March 22, 2015
Stocks rallied this past week as the Market-Friendly Fed spurred more gains for equities. The Dovish rhetoric resonated through the markets despite removing the word ‘patient’ from its statement. Early-week strength in the U.S. Dollar (/DX) was weighing on stocks to start the week, but they reversed quickly after the Fed statement on Wednesday afternoon. Thursday was mixed with some indexes coming off Fed related euphoria but Friday, sentiment changed, focusing on both Fed policy and central bank policy overseas. Equities gained on belief that the Fed will not change its near zero policy until at least mid-year and likely later. Traders also noted that monetary policy in Europe will be easing. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) jumped 2.7% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) rose 2.1% for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led gains up over 3% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) were up by 2.8%. The gains pushed the Dow and the S&P 500 Index into positive territory for the year.
In this past week's FOMC statement, the Fed eliminated the word "patient" regarding when rates begin to rise but there was no change in policy rates. They changed their characterization of the economy as growth is no longer solid but only moderate. The statement is somewhat dovish, which has the Bulls jumping for joy again. The Fed was a little positive about the labor market. The Fed lowered its forecasts for the unemployment rate but also for GDP growth and inflation. They appear to either be willing to accept lower unemployment or acknowledge that labor force participation is declining. The lower GDP and inflation number supported the Fed's dovish statement to end the week.
With equities trending up sharply for the week, Option volatility took a big dump. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell almost 19% and is again approaching the multi-year support level near $12. The ‘Fear Gauge’ should see some additional movement this week as there is plenty of economic data and Fed-speak due. Bond yields sank like a stone on the equity rally this week. The 10-year yield fell back below 2% and sits at 1.93%. Dovish Fed comments put a solid bid into Treasuries as many investors believe the risk of a rate rise has been pushed off. Oil futures (/CL) finished the week relatively unchanged but the daily sessions were volatile. Inventories continue to grow but Rig counts are falling. We should see continued volatility in the energy markets with Oil and gas prices near 6-year lows.
There will be plenty of potential catalysts for markets in the upcoming week. While economic data remains mixed the Fed is still in an accommodative stance. The wavering sectors of the economy recently have been housing and manufacturing, which we will get a better look at this week. Market-Watchers have once again been blaming weather for the most recent weak numbers, but they are not where the Fed wants them. For housing, sales have been soft over the winter. With a stronger dollar and weaker growth in Europe and Asia, manufacturing has slowed, relying on domestic demand. Durables orders will point to whether the manufacturing sector returns positive after three monthly declines in manufacturing output ending in February.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – FMSA
P.M. –N/A
Tuesday:
A.M. – MKC
P.M.– SONC, SCS
Wednesday:
A.M. – APOL
P.M. – FIVE, LE, PSUN, PAYX, PVH, RHT
Thursday:
A.M. – CAN, CAG, CCL, FRED, LULU, WGO
P.M. – GME, OCN, RH
Friday:
A.M. –BBRY, FINL
Economic Releases (3/23 – 3/27):
Monday:
7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed Activity Index
9:00 am CT– Existing Home Sales
9:00 pm CT –Fed’s Williams Speaks
Tuesday:
5:05 am CT –Fed’s Bullard Speaks
7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
8:00 am CT – House Price Index
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index – Flash
9:00 am CT – New Home Sales
9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 2-Year Note Auction Results
Wednesday:
5:30 am CT –Fed’s Evans Speaks
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results
Thursday:
3:35 am CT –Fed’s Bullard Speaks
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
8:00 am CT –Fed’s Lockhart Speaks
9:00 am CT – PMI Services - Flash
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index
Friday:
7:30 am CT – GDP
9:00 am CT– Consumer Sentiment作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-23 08:28
3/23/2015
Friday’s rally saw stocks finish with their second best week of 2015. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) finished above 5K again and the Dow Industrials settled above 18K. Ahead of the opening bell, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are showing a slight pull-back, albeit a small one. The Dovish Fed stance has investors pouring into risk assets such as stocks and we could see more gains as complacency reigns. The U.S. Dollar is down again today which is adding to last week’s slide. We saw an inverse correlation take place last week but today’s move is showing a little bit of divergence. Option volatility may get a bounce higher today if stocks remain in the red but premarket indicators are already off of overnight lows. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell almost 20% last week and is approaching support near the $12 level.
This week will be a good indicator for the Treasury market. We saw fresh demand for Bonds last week as the dovish Fed had investors scrambling to buy. The 10-year yield broke through the 2% level and is approaching 1.9% for the first time in a month. Overseas, the Bundesbank sees a "vibrant expansion" in Germany. U.S. equity futures are weaker, following the lead from Euro-zone bourses after Asian markets rallied. It's a quiet start to the week in the U.S. but Fed-speak will highlight. Cleveland Fed's Mester, spoke earlier and noted the Fed is cognizant of bubble risks, and added the Committee has plenty of room to ease if the economy slows sharply. Fischer and Williams will also speak today. Data is light with just February existing home sales and the Chicago Fed's national activity index on tap.
Stock Stories:
Lululemon (LULU) –No Pants – The yoga apparel maker reports earnings this week and the stock has made significant strides after mid-2014 lows. Sales momentum had positively picked up but may be topping out according to analysts. The shares are down over slighly ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed Activity Index
9:00 am CT– Existing Home Sales
9:00 pm CT –Fed’s Williams Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 3/23:
Before Market: FMSA
After Market: N/A
Tuesday – 3/24:
Before Market: MKC
After Market:SONC, SCS作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-24 08:12
3/24/2015
A late-day sell off did not take the luster off of upward momentum for stocks to start the week. Volume and movement yesterday was muted as traders were in a bit of a weekend hangover. Ahead of the opening bell today, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are gaining back all of yesterday’s minor losses. Upbeat economic data out of the Euro-Zone and particularly Germany helped reverse global equities despite bearish news out of China. Chinese Factory activity showed a drop to an 11-month low and was far below expectations. Option volatility saw a small bounce higher yesterday as stocks were weak at the close. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) should reverse lower today if we remain in positive territory but there is plenty of economic news that could change that sentiment.
Yields continue to come under pressure as the demand for Treasuries remains strong. Bonds were choppy yesterday and are relatively strong this morning. The U.S. Dollar is easing more today and has given back much of the previous week’s gains. If the Greenback catches another bid, we could see downward pressure on stocks again especially global multinationals. Stocks are mixed with China's Shanghai index having rebounded from losses after its disappointing PMI that fell to 49.2, which is contraction. And Grexit fears remain intact after PM Tsipras failed to unlock emergency aid. In the U.S. today, there's key data on February CPI and February new home sales. There's also the PMI, the FHFA home price index, the Richmond Fed index and the Treasury auctions $26 B in 2-year notes.
Stock Stories:
Metlife (MET) –Rate reality – A letter to shareholders from the CEO stated that there may be concerns for earnings if rates remain low for longer than expected. The financial sector may under pressure on margins if rates do not begin to normalize into 2016 and 2017 as estimates are based on higher levels.
Major Economic Reports:
5:05 am CT –Fed’s Bullard Speaks
7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
8:00 am CT – House Price Index
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index – Flash
9:00 am CT – New Home Sales
9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 2-Year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 3/24:
Before Market: MKC
After Market: SONC, SCS
Wednesday – 3/25:
Before Market: APOL
After Market:FIVE, LE, PSUN, PAYX, PVH, RHT作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-25 09:28
3/25/2015
Tuesday saw another session that failed at the end of the day. Stocks were weak after a 2-year Note auction mid-day and weakened into the close. Volatility rose only modestly despite the downturn as risk protection in the option markets remains cheap on a historical basis. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still relatively low and is just above the $13 level. Ahead of the opening bell today, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are showing minor losses again but the Nasdaq futures (/NQ) are in positive territory. Oil futures (/CL) are relatively flat but may become volatile today as inventory results are due this morning. The Dollar (/DX) is falling and has trended lower after hitting 12 year highs about a week ago.
Treasuries are higher, extending gains for a 4th straight session. Core European sovereigns and most Asian bonds outside of Japan are also in rally mode. As Bonds rise, the inverse yields fall and the 10-year yield has dipped to 1.86% in light volume. U.S. equity futures have headed south in tandem with European bourse as Grexit fears flare up again. There wasn't much data of note overnight in the overseas markets. Today's U.S. slate includes the $35 B 5-year sale while Durable Goods for March highlight the data calendar. The MBA reported mortgage applications surged 9.5% in the week ended March 20. Earlier the Fed's Evans said the U.S. economy is very strong, but reiterated concerns over raising rates too soon as he is the Uber-Dove member.
Stock Stories:
Kraft (KRFT) –Processed Food Merger – H.J. Heinz Company and Kraft Foods Group (KRFT) announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement to create The Kraft Heinz Company, forming the third largest food and beverage company in North America. Kraft shares are up 32% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
5:30 am CT –Fed’s Evans Speaks
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Up 9.5%
7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 3/25:
Before Market: APOL
After Market: FIVE, LE, PSUN, PAYX, PVH, RHT
Thursday – 3/26:
Before Market: CAN, CAG, CCL, FRED, LULU, WGO
After Market: GME, OCN, RH作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-26 12:10
看病去了，贴晚了。。。
3/26/2015
The markets were bleeding red yesterday as stocks fell sharply throughout the day. The Benchmark S&P 500 gave up 1.5% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) was lower by over 2%. The sell-off was blamed on pre-earnings jitters and profit-taking on bloated momentum names. Volatility rose sharply on the downturn as risk protection in the option markets got scooped up by investors. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked over 13% yesterday as the ‘Fear Gauge’ may get choppy if stocks remain volatile. Ahead of the opening bell today, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting a sharply lower open as the market appears ready to continue yesterday's selloff. Stocks may be reacting to reports that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies began bombing targets in Yemen as the country moves closer to a civil war. The news has caused a spike in crude oil prices (/CL) and nervousness in Europe and the Middle East.
Capital flows into Bonds took a break yesterday and Treasuries are flat this morning. The 10-year yield remains below 2% and may have trouble breaking through resistance at that key level anytime soon. St Louis Fed moderate Bullard said stated in a speech that now may be a good time to begin normalizing policy, which will remain exceptionally accommodative. He is a non-voter at FOMC meetings but is part of the deliberations. Overseas saw German consumer confidence is at 13-year highs but Euro-Zone markets were still sharply lower. Today's U.S. calendar includes the $29 B 7-year auction, the last of the week. On the data slate are initial jobless claims for the week ended March 21, the March flash services PMI and the KC Fed manufacturing survey for March. Fed governor Lockhart will speak again on monetary policy and the economy, and his thoughts will be closely followed. Tomorrow's calendar has just revised Q4 GDP and the final print on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.
Stock Stories:
Sandisk (SNDK) –Chipped Off! – The Chip-maker lowered its Q1 guidance this morning from previous forecasts. The change in Q1 revenue estimate is primarily due to certain product qualification delays, lower than expected sales of enterprise products and lower pricing in some areas of the business. The shares are reacting negatively and are down over 10% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
3:35 am CT –Fed’s Bullard Speaks
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
8:00 am CT –Fed’s Lockhart Speaks
9:00 am CT – PMI Services - Flash
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 7-Year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Thursday – 3/26:
Before Market: CAN, CAG, CCL, FRED, LULU, WGO
After Market: GME, OCN, RH
Friday – 3/27:
Before Market: BBRY, FINL
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-27 08:59
3/27/2015
Thursday started off deep in the red for stocks as concerns in Yemen and Saudi Arabia negatively affected global markets. ‘Buy the Dip’ once again showed its head and stocks recovered most of its loses into the end of the session. The Benchmark S&P 500 index (SPX) ended the day down a modest quarter of a percent but at the open was off 1%. Volatility initially rose sharply on the downturn but quickly reversed on the rally. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose a modest 2% but found resistance once again near the $17 level. This morning in pre-market, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting a slightly lower open as the market is on shaky ground.
Treasuries are sharply higher and are attempting to end their recent slide. But the 10-year yield is still under 2.0%. The UK’s gilt is underperforming after BoE's Carney reiterated that the next interest rate move is probably higher. Stocks are mixed overseas while U.S. equity futures are in the red with Greece still a concern as the PM Tsipras prepares to present details reform plans over the weekend. In other news, German import prices jumped 1.4% in February thanks to the weaker EUR and the rise in oil prices. On the U.S. docket today, comments from Fed Chair Yellen on monetary policy and the new normal are anxiously awaited, though she will not be speaking until later in the afternoon. Before that there will be data on revised Q4 GDP and the final print on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan survey.
Stock Stories:
Gamestop (GME) –Game over?! – The video game retailer posted lower than expected quarterly results last night after the bell. The company also lowered FY15 guidance and is blaming currency issues for the pain. The shares are reacting negatively and are down over 4% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – GDP
9:00 am CT– Consumer Sentiment
2:45 pm CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 3/27:
Before Market: BBRY, FINL
After Market: N/A
Monday – 3/30:
Before Market: CALM
After Market: CNET作者: total 时间: 2015-3-27 21:03
作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-29 10:08
Weekend Update
Stocks took a bit of a hit this week as geopolitical concerns and poor economic data is finally having some negative impact on equities. Among the factors that concern investors globally is the current guessing game about when the Federal Reserve will begin to increase its fed funds rate. Despite comments out of the Fed, the markets are focused on either June or September, which is when FOMC meetings are followed by press conferences. Of late, a string of disappointing U.S. economic data has investors wondering if it will delay an increase in rates. Many economic indicators currently being released were affected by poor winter weather…although these should have been recognized by economists earlier. The question now is whether they will bounce back in the second quarter. It is a foregone conclusion that growth slowed in the first quarter of 2015. Other factors that influenced equity trading last week were the situation in Yemen especially given its geographic location regarding the flow of oil from the Middle East. The price swings in oil prices (/CL) have had a direct impact on energy company shares. Also dragging on financial markets are Greece's negotiations with its creditors. The markets continue to wait for some sort of an agreement to be reached. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) both lost 2.2% for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led losses off 2.7% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) were down just over 2%. The losses pushed the Dow and the S&P 500 Index into flat to negative territory for the year.
With equities dumping this week, Option volatility jumped higher, albeit from extremely low levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 15% and gained back the prior week’s slide. The ‘Fear Gauge’ should see some additional movement this week as there is plenty of economic data, Fed-speak and increased geopolitical action. Treasuries had an extremely choppy week but ended flat on Friday. The 10-year yield sits below 2% and looks to have found a range under this level. Friday’s GDP data saw the U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% rate in the fourth quarter of 2014, which was in-line with estimates. Oil futures (/CL) rose about 4% on the heels of the escalating conflict in Yemen and this occurred despite a 5% slide on Friday. Energy prices and the oil market should continue to have a big impact on markets and the economy going forward.
The upcoming week is a short one as markets are closed on Friday for the Easter holiday. While economic data remains mixed, the Fed is still in an accommodative stance. The consumer is still underperforming spending expectations and the data is supporting the mixed numbers. The upcoming week is full of potential market-moving news. Housing, manufacturing and jobs data are all due and could throw some volatility into equities. The March Jobs report is due on Friday when markets are closed. We have had 12 straight months of employment gains above 200K, which is the longest duration since 1994.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – AIR, CALM
P.M. –N/A
Tuesday:
A.M. – CONN, GY, OCN, VTNR
P.M.– CNET, NG
Wednesday:
A.M. – MON
P.M. – N/A
Thursday:
A.M. – KMX
P.M. – MU, SKY
Friday:
A.M. –Markets Closed
Economic Releases (3/23 – 3/27):
Monday:
7:30 am CT – Personal income and Outlays
9:00 am CT– Pending Home Sales
10:00 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Index
6:15 pm CT –Fed’s Fischer Speaks
Tuesday:
Fed’s George Speaks
8:00 am CT –Fed’s Mester Speaks
8:00 am CT –Fed’s Lacker Speaks
8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI
8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI
9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence
Wednesday:
Auto Sales – All Day
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – Construction Spending
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
Thursday:
7:30 am CT –International Trade
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT –Fed’s Yellen Speaks
9:00 am CT – Factory Orders
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
Friday:
Holiday - Markets Closed
7:30 am CT – Jobs Report
7:30 am CT –Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-30 08:22
3/30/2015
Stocks were in positive territory on Friday, but finished last week sharply lower. The Benchmark S&P 500 index (SPX) ended the week down over 2% as mixed economic data and geopolitical events were negatively affecting equities. This morning in pre-market, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply higher as the market is attempting to rebound. Comments from Fed Chair Yellen on Friday afternoon and China’s Central Bank chief has investors feeling positive. The PBOC governor stated that they see ‘More Room’ for China to ease policy if the economic conditions remain soft. Volatility firmed up last week but will most likely see some weakness today on the rally. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose to the $15 level last week but is still in a tight range for the year.
Treasuries are slightly lower to start the week. The 10-year yield has dipped to 1.94% and remains firmly under 2%. The advent of month- and quarter-end is providing some support for Bonds over the last week. Stocks overseas are also posting solid gains too, underpinned by hopes for Chinese stimulus. In the U.S., today's data on personal income and consumption will be important for the GDP outlook. Other data today includes pending home sales and the Dallas Fed's manufacturing index. Comments from Fed VC Fischer will be closely monitored, though in comments to date, he hasn't provided any clear indications on the timing of a rate hike. He'll discuss monetary policy but well after the markets close.
Stock Stories:
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) –Scoop – The drug giant announced an agreement to buy Auspex Pharma (ASPX) for $3.2 B. This transaction is expected to enhance Teva’s revenue and earnings growth profile and strengthen its core central nervous system franchise with the addition of Auspex’s portfolio of innovative medicines for people who live with movement disorders. TEVA shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Personal income and Outlays
9:00 am CT– Pending Home Sales
10:00 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Index
6:15 pm CT –Fed’s Fischer Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 3/30:
Before Market: AIR, CALM
After Market: N/A
Tuesday – 3/31:
Before Market: CONN, GY, OCN, VTNR
After Market: CNET, NG作者: aimei 时间: 2015-3-30 14:09
NO MARKET ON FRIDAY作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-3-31 08:11
3/31/2015
Stocks were back in rally mode to start the week. The Benchmark S&P 500 index (SPX) jumped 1.2% and the Dow Industrials (DIA) were up almost 1.5%. M&A activity, China easing hints and decent Housing data had the Bulls in buying mode. Despite the rise in equities, option volatility finished the session off of lows reached at mid-morning. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 3.7% but at one point was off by almost 7%. This morning in pre-market, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply lower as stocks can’t seem to hold any gains recently. Profit-taking ahead of the end of the quarter is being cited for the early weakness, as there is little on the foreign economic front that would point to such a significantly lower start.
Treasuries are slightly higher this morning. The 10-year yield has hovered under 2% recently and the trend looks to continue as the demand for Bonds remains firm. Stocks in Europe are also posting losses as data showed unemployment was still above expectations in February. Asia was also lower by 1% but the quarter produced double digit gains for the Japanese Nikkei and Shanghai Composite. On the domestic economic calendar, investors will focus on the Case/Shiller home price report, the Chicago purchasing manager’s report, and a consumer confidence reading. There is also Fed-Speak from George, Mester and Lacker that could potentially sway markets.
Stock Stories:
McDonald’s (MCD) – More garbage, longer – The fast food giant will start to test an all-day breakfast in San Diego next month. The company continues to reach for ways to reverse the recent slide in revenue and growth. MCD shares have traded flat over the last few years and are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
Fed’s George Speaks
8:00 am CT –Fed’s Mester Speaks
8:00 am CT –Fed’s Lacker Speaks
8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI
8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI
9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 3/31:
Before Market: CONN, GY, OCN, VTNR
After Market: CNET, NG
Wednesday – 4/1:
Before Market: MON
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-4-1 08:34
4/1/2015
Stocks reversed Monday’s gains yesterday as potential profit-taking into the quarter end took hold. The major indices attempted to get back to positive territory but the Bears continually beat them down. Overnight saw stock futures trade in a massive range as the S&P 500 (/ES) was off over 1.25% early in the after-market when Asian markets opened. They have rebounded throughout the overnight session but are still weak. The U.S. equity futures (/ES) are down modestly but we may be in for some volatility to start the quarter. On yesterday’s fall in equities, option volatility rose moderately. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped over 5% as stocks finished the session near lows for the day.
Treasuries are sharply higher this morning as stocks fall. The demand for Bonds remains solid as many expect the Fed to hold off on interest rate increases past the June meeting and potentially longer. Global bonds are mostly higher too. Greece exit risks are underpinning the demand. U.S. equity futures are extending losses after closing Q1 on the back foot. European bourses are mostly higher after better than expected PMI data, while Asian markets were choppy amid less positive confidence data. Today's U.S. reports will be important, but won't really alter the outlook sufficiently. The March ADP, the ISM, the PMI, auto sales and construction spending are due. Fed-speak from the doves Williams and Lockhart will be monitored too. Most focus however, is Friday's nonfarm payroll report although markets will be closed when it is released on Good Friday.
Stock Stories:
Airlines (DAL, AAL, UAL) – Standby – The major international airlines received a major analyst downgrade this morning. The analyst sites currency concerns with the U.S. Dollar and international weakness. All three stocks are down ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
Auto Sales – All Day
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 4.6%
7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – Construction Spending
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 4/1:
Before Market: MON
After Market: N/A
Thursday – 4/2:
Before Market: KMX
After Market: MU, SKY作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-4-2 08:45
4/2/2015
Stocks tumbled down yesterday but finished the session far off of lows. Private-sector job gains were weaker than expected while a larger-than-forecast drop in ISM manufacturing index suggested the economy slowed in the first quarter. Slower Auto Sales also negatively affected equities. In today’s pre-market, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are down modestly but the recent swings have created some solid volatility. On yesterday’s fall in equities, option volatility actually fell slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finished in the red as stocks closed the session trying to go positive. There were some large Buy prints on the close yesterday in SPY, IWM, DIA and the e-mini S&P 500 futures (/ES) that made the overall market spike higher off of lows.
Treasuries are higher again this morning after spiking significantly yesterday. The 10-year yield is now below the 1.9% level at 1.85% as the trend for lower rates continues. However, activity is thinning fast in Europe ahead of the Easter holiday. Stocks are little changed overseas, having pared earlier gains though U.S. futures are posting small losses. There wasn't much data overnight, but U.K. construction PMI was much weaker than expected. Meanwhile, expectations on Friday's March nonfarm payroll report are turning sour, though analysts are still forecasting a 250k increase. Stock Markets are closed tomorrow so affects from the Jobs data will come next week. Today's calendar includes February trade numbers, weekly jobless claims, and February factory orders. The Treasury announces details on next week's 3-10-, and 30-year auctions also. Fed Chair Yellen will give welcome remarks to a conference, but most likely will not say anything policy related.
Stock Stories:
Mondelez, Kraft (MDLZ, KRFT) – Busted? – The two food companies could trade actively today after both were charged with manipulating the prices of Wheat in both Futures and the Cash Markets. The suit was brought by the CFTC, which actually oversees trading in both products.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT –International Trade
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT –Fed’s Yellen Speaks
9:00 am CT – Factory Orders
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 4/2:
Before Market: KMX
After Market: N/A
Friday – 4/3:
Before Market: MARKETS
After Market: CLOSED作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-4-6 08:17
4/6/2015
Friday’s jobs data showed that a Fed rate hike at the June meeting may be remote. This would historically be a positive for ‘Risk-On’ assets such as equities, but corporate concerns may be weighing on markets. Payrolls on Friday showed only 126K jobs added in March, which was far lower than the estimates of close to 250K. In today’s pre-market, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are down sharply as they were on Friday’s report although markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday. Oil futures (/CL) are sharply higher despite last week’s Iranian nuclear deal as many expect supply increases won’t be immediate. Also, Saudi Arabia reportedly raised prices to Asian customers. Option Volatility should spike today if stocks remain in the red.
Treasuries are slightly lower today and will look to break its recent upward trend. As Bonds have been strong, the 10-year yield is now down to the 1.9% level. Most European markets remained shut for Easter Monday, while most Asian exchanges were on holiday too, which kept trading very light. The U.S. will open with hefty losses as the market reacts to the disappointing March jobs report. That could give Treasuries some support, even after Friday's big rally. Data today includes the March ISM non-manufacturing report, along with the Services PMI. The Fed also releases its LMCI (labor market conditions index), though it's only a compilation of previously released numbers, so won't provide much new information. Treasury supply will be a significant factor for traders this week with $58 B in coupons on tap, 3-year notes (Tuesday), 10’s (Wednesday), and $13 B in reopened 30-year bonds (Thursday).
Stock Stories:
Microsoft (MSFT) – Battleground – The software behemoth received an analyst upgrade this morning on Positive strategic positioning and price action. The stock is down over 10% this year and estimates are continuing to come under pressure on the heels of previous downgrades from analysts. The stock is up slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index
9:00 am CT– ISM Non-Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – Labor Market Conditions Index
11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 4/6:
Before Market: N/A
After Market: SHLM
Tuesday – 4/7:
Before Market: GBX, SCHN
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-4-7 08:49
4/7/2015
The week started with a sharp reversal on Monday as stocks quickly bounced off of opening lows. Fed member Dudley spoke yesterday morning and once again gave Dovish comments due to the lower than expected Jobs Report from last Friday. In today’s pre-market, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are up modestly as they attempt to extend Monday’s gains. Option Volatility was actually flat during the session despite the rise in equities. Oil futures (/CL) are slightly lower after yesterday’s rally back over $51 a barrel. The U.S. Dollar (/DX) is sharply higher this morning and Blackrock’s CEO stated that a higher Greenback may slow growth and stifle corporate results in the near-term.
Treasuries are mixed with Bonds higher but shorter-term Notes flat to slightly lower this morning. European equity markets are playing catch-up after being closed since last Thursday. Global equities are higher, in large part on expectations of additional Central Bank stimulus. Overnight, Overseas data were mixed with the services PMI revised slightly lower to 54.2, while the U.K. services PMI was stronger than expected. The U.S. calendar is thin today but the Treasury's $24 B 3-year note auction kicks off supply this week. There is also more market-moving potential Fed-speak today from the dovish Kocherlakota. Data includes just February JOLTS and earnings season kicks off tomorrow.
Stock Stories:
FedEx (FDX) – Delivered – The shipping giant announced a $4.8B deal to buy TNT Express this morning. The deal should help expand FedEx’s presence in Europe and abroad. FDX shares are up 4% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:50 am CT –Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks
9:00 am CT – JOLTS
12:00 pm CT – 3-Year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 4/7:
Before Market: GBX, SCHN
After Market: N/A
Wednesday – 4/8:
Before Market: FDO, RPM
After Market: AA, BBBY, PIR作者: 沁颍 时间: 2015-4-8 08:44
4/8/2015
Stocks were strong through most of Tuesday’s session but failed to hold gains into the close. Small Caps (IWM, RUT) were down earlier in the day and forecasted the dump into the red near the last hour of the session. Alcoa, (AA) will be reporting its results after the close today, and investors remain concerned about the recent string of poor economic data and its effect on corporate earnings. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are relatively flat to slightly higher ahead of the open. Option Volatility was slightly higher on Tuesday after trading lower most of the day. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to hover in a tight range near $14-$15. Oil futures (/CL) are sharply lower after yesterday’s rally. There was more signs of rising inventories of Crude and record production out of Saudi Arabia.
Bonds and Notes in the U.S. are a little higher, in tandem with gains in most sovereign markets overnight. The 10-year yield has dipped to 1.85% as demand for Treasuries continues. German Bonds (Bunds) are outperforming with the 10-year rate down to a new record low at 0.15%. German manufacturing orders unexpectedly contracted and Euro-zone retail sales dropped which are highlighting risks to the recovery. Greek yields are bouncing higher, reversing yesterday's slide given little progress on a reform deal. In the U.S. today, the FOMC minutes and the 10-year note auction highlight an otherwise thin calendar. There's more Fed-speak from Powell and Dudley, but his dovish views are widely known.
Stock Stories:
Apple (AAPL) – Dare to Downgrade?!– The tech product-maker received a rare analyst downgrade this morning. Research included a lower selling price point for iPhones in March quarter and currency headwinds will negatively affect results. AAPL shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.
