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标题: [闲谈] 重放于1010牛熊决战前夕 [打印本页]

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-10-16 21:28 标题: 重放于1010牛熊决战前夕

本帖最后由何鸿燊于 2010-10-16 21:35 编辑

[youtube]JuPsZYARNFs[/youtube]

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-10-21 19:43

[youtube]KbeRugeZb0w[/youtube]

作者: Brainteaser 时间: 2010-10-21 19:55

第一个有点压抑，第二个手枪那个有点搞笑哈。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-10-21 20:02

3# Brainteaser

偶是觉得最近涨不上去了，做多应该开始保护或取利。但做空还没到时候。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-10-21 20:18

3# Brainteaser

还要等下周能源股三大巨头季报。

http://www.inthemoneystocks.com/ ... single.php?id=10277

作者: 停车坐爱 时间: 2010-10-21 20:31

本帖最后由停车坐爱于 2010-10-21 20:33 编辑

此贴是说，最后的胜利属于向上进攻的牛军！那些企图居高阻挡牛军进攻的熊熊们，最后都被消灭在了滩头阵地上！

一切都是机缘！股市就是个大妓院！。。。

你第一天贴出来，就注定了此贴在封神演义里成了重要的机缘之一。。。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-10-21 20:34

6# 停车坐爱

QEII最终的结果就是这样子。300W人的舰队对几个后备师的守军

作者: Brainteaser 时间: 2010-10-21 20:58

4# 何鸿燊

现在是修正盘，高抛低吸的天堂。
总方向还是向上的。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-10-21 21:23

8# Brainteaser

多谢。大的FA变化之前肯定有换仓行为，震荡难免。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-10-29 21:23

四月底对10月底11月初。
何其相似啊！

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作者: 停车坐爱 时间: 2010-10-29 21:48

年年月月都相似，月月年年不一样。。。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-10-29 23:55

11# 停车坐爱

有道理。至少黑老大现在很威风。夏天本来也是trader离场的季节。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-11-5 22:13 标题: 还在熊熊的掌风之内，

本帖最后由何鸿燊于 2010-11-5 22:15 编辑

12# 何鸿燊

需要继续推进，较快通过61.8% 回测阻力水平。

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作者: 停车坐爱 时间: 2010-11-6 19:29

本帖最后由停车坐爱于 2010-11-6 19:46 编辑

有人战略性做空，有人战略性退出。。。最后的结果逼腚是---战略性错误！战略性惨败！---战略性做空的早就不必说了，死啦死啦的！---连Livemore都经常战略性空死自己呢，你更熊！---战略性撤出最后的结果就是，涨啊涨，几天能忍，几周能忍，几个月也忍了，最后自己实在受不了了，无法忍受继续再踏空下去了，于是眼一闭，冲进去了---冲进去站岗了！。。。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-11-12 19:43

雪拥蓝关马不前。一语成谶。SPX 61.8%回测阻力是熊方的底线了。从昨天csco ER的打压科技股，今天利用中国通胀加息的忧虑打压资源类。而且都没有忌惮今天第一次新POMO的资金，可见其来势汹汹。

不过对牛方来说这仅仅是暂时挫折。毕竟从8月底到现在，SPX没有在10月底崩盘，到达940-950，或者888，或者500。经济双底论和通缩的忧虑基本解除了。现在讲的是hyperinflation。

作者: quietplayer 时间: 2010-11-12 20:56

15# 何鸿燊

大熊确实出其不意，来势凶猛。但是也许机会就在不远处等着呢。。。

作者: 蓉儿 时间: 2010-11-13 14:09

老何的思考，还是要仔细读的，停车的战略性做空的结局的论点是很警醒的，好贴！！

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-11-17 00:33

四五月份是狗剩加希腊加中国，这次是思科加爱尔兰加中国。战略空头是同一批人。

作者: 停车坐爱 时间: 2010-11-17 00:35

四五月份是狗剩加希腊加中国，这次是思科加爱尔兰加中国。战略空头是同一批人。
何鸿燊发表于 2010-11-16 23:33

目的不同。。。

作者: yijianmei 时间: 2010-11-17 00:55

四五月份是狗剩加希腊加中国，这次是思科加爱尔兰加中国。战略空头是同一批人。
何鸿燊发表于 2010-11-16 23:33

制造不同借口，打压市场而已。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-11-21 13:20

本帖最后由何鸿燊于 2010-11-21 13:01 编辑

要不要拉响空袭警报？觉得还是早了些。

但中国在搞宏观调控，资源类大概勇不起来。现在大家在指望圣诞销售好。要是圣诞销售不好，就会有失望卖压。

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作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-11-21 13:32

本帖最后由何鸿燊于 2010-11-21 13:09 编辑

但目前也没有看出做空的理由。美国的经济数据越来越好。公司盈利也应该会因为全球化进一步受益。所以中长期还是应该做多。国会在讨论BUSH TAX的命运，估计会把富人定义为50W或100W以上。这样子对经济的冲击不大。为了减赤，也可能开征联邦销售税，

综合一下，觉得做多还可以，但仓位不能太重了。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-11-28 20:55

本帖最后由何鸿燊于 2010-11-28 20:48 编辑

中期信号继续偏熊。
1）中国调控；香港禁止投机炒楼
2）朝韩磨刀霍霍
3）欧猪流感
4）美国HF 内幕交易。忧虑会有客户集体提领资金。
5）房屋赎回对银行的冲击，这和最近的第二轮stress test关联有多大？

VIX上来了。下周股指振幅会不小（40-50点），摸到1150都可能了。

对爱尔兰的救援结束后，不知这个大炒家怎样搞葡萄牙西班牙来继续打压欧元。

时间上看还要磨蹭一周以上，等本月各国的的PMI， NFP出炉。市场最怕不确定性，现在是有点jittery。

http://www.zerohedge.com/article ... ne+drops+to+zero%29

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-11-28 20:55

本帖最后由何鸿燊于 2010-11-28 19:59 编辑

现在大盘靠科技股零售股的强势继续盘整。科技股还是有上升空间的，要是金融类，资源类加进来就出新高了。

现在LBO和企业并购高潮不断，这意味着股票价值合理，无需担忧中长期投资前景。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-12-5 23:48

本帖最后由何鸿燊于 2010-12-5 22:55 编辑

上周大盘走得很戏剧化。周一，周二因为两韩对峙，和对欧猪流感的惧怕，指数连续两日大低开，但在区间底部附近盘中被买起来，连续两日小红收盘。实际上经济数据越来越理想，而且市场内部涨跌互现，强势股比如零售类，网络/云计算连续拉升，买对个股的可以说是笑逐颜开。

但熊熊还是很有斩获，把两只狗的腿都打断了。果果也没有什么起色。

周二晚中国PMI一出，云开雾散。周三欧洲，美国的PMI数据十分理想，大盘升势凌厉。本以为周五的NFP会锦上添花，结果是跌碎一地眼睛。不过市场很快消化了这个异常数据，只是微跌。下午更是因为美元回跌，商品类特别是能源类的进一步上升而总体收高。奇怪的是有些大牛股如CMG等有十分严厉的回调。看来有smartboy在获利出场。

目前看金融类开始止跌回升，商品类升势看来也没有结束。科技股因为最近的轮动，还有上升空间。接下来大盘估计会melt up。SPX一举突破前面提到的61.8%回测防线。这是第三次访问了，不是逗着玩的。

看到资源，能源类，地产类，地区银行有许多个股可以介入。DRYS， DHI， WFC，等。

忧虑的地方是潜在的美元货币危机因为美国政客的不负责任而可能性继续增加，现在只听到到处是减税，和增加福利开支。而以减赤为目标的节流和开源措施基本上胎死腹中。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-12-6 00:04

因为小孩学校的通知，刚注意到今年的犹太光明节，下周是高峰（出现一年最黑暗的夜晚），比平常年头早一到二周呢。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-12-13 01:19 标题: The Best Christmas Gift for the Wall Streeter in Your Life zt

26# 何鸿燊

26# 何鸿燊

One of my long time readers who works in the investment field, sent me a photo of a tie than one of the larger ETF houses sent his boss for Christmas. I thought at first it was photo shop, but this is an actual tie - it shows the Wall Streeters know where their bread is buttered.

The hero worship of "everyone can buy a 3rd house in the Hamptons with this guy in charge" on the Street is now making Greenspan at his peak seem only demigod-like. I also hear in Manhattan the "chicks dig it" .... you can almost feel the free money being transferred from the savers to the speculator class on the fabric. (made in China I am sure)

Look, as an investment banker - after you ditch your college sweetheart 'starter wife' you need to signal to the 25 and under set of NYC female that you are part of the 'best and brightest' who front runs the Fed's daily POMO operations (bond trading is so cool in the new paradigm!) or brought Youku public..... and what better way than a tie that screams Ben Bernanke is my god?

Mmmm.... I love the smell of intra economic class wealth transfer in the morning.

[click to enlarge]

Inspiration

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作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-12-13 01:31 标题: Is Santa Claus rally almost done?

本帖最后由何鸿燊于 2010-12-13 00:32 编辑

Edward Krudy of Reuters reports,

The December rally may be reaching its climax, with just two weeks to go before Santa Claus makes his midnight run. Dwindling volume, excess optimism, and history all point to a stock market that could be running out of steam.

Investors appear to have grown complacent as the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX . VIX, has fallen to levels not seen since April. Stocks have made new highs on almost a daily basis. The S&P 500 .SPX closed on Friday at its highest level since September 2008 and the Nasdaq .IXIC scored its best finish since late December 2007, with many expecting gains to run through the end of the year.

But Cleveland Rueckert, an analyst at Birinyi Associates in Stamford, Connecticut, believes the year-end rally may be largely done.

"The majority of that gain may already have occurred," he said. "Most people are more likely to be closing out their books at the end of the month and looking for opportunities to open new positions at the start of the next month."

Rueckert said that over the last 65 years, when the S&P 500 has rallied at year's end, the average gain has been 3.4 percent between Thanksgiving and New Year's. So far, the index has risen 3.5 percent since the start of the period.

"A lot of stocks this year have had very big gains and it really wouldn't be surprising to see a lot of the managers close out positions and take some vacation time," he said.

When trading resumes on Monday, that will start the last five-day trading week before Christmas. The following week will be cut short by the holiday. With December 25th falling on Saturday this year, the U.S. stock market will be closed on Friday, December 24th, in observance of the Christmas holiday.

Inflation data for November will dominate next week's economic calendar, with the U.S. Producer Price Index due on Tuesday and the U.S. Consumer Price Index set for Wednesday.

BULLS IN THE EGGNOG

Some see signs of the bulls getting into the eggnog.

The American Association of Individual Investors' latest sentiment survey shows bullish sentiment reached a four-week high. What's more, bullish sentiment has spent 14 weeks above its historical average -- its longest streak in six years.

That is often seen as a contrarian indicator.

This week, the S&P 500 has broken through closely watched resistance levels and has climbed for six of the last eight days to close at fresh two-year highs.

But gains have been accompanied by decreasing participation. Average volume during the last three days of the week was 7.76 billion, well below this year's daily average of 8.62 billion.

"We are entering now the beginning of the seasonal pattern where volume really dries up," said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group in New York. "It seems like it's starting a little sooner than usual.

"I don't think we're at any risk of a meaningful sell-off into the end of the year, but I think the basic contours of what the economy looks like are pretty well set," he said.

That sentiment was reflected in the VIX, also known as Wall Street's favorite barometer of investor fear. Although the VIX edged up on Friday, the index has fallen for six of the last nine sessions. It now stands at 17.61 after hitting its lowest since April.

The 15-day moving average of the advance/decline ratio on the New York Stock Exchange, a measure of the proportion of advancing to falling stocks, has started to slip and currently stands at around 1.5. It peaked this year in July at about double that, according to Reuters data.

In addition, the 3-day moving average of stocks making new 52-week highs has also turned lower after a spurt at the start of the month. It now stands at around 125, down from more than 250 at the start of the month.

The breadth and ratios have not been "on board" this rally of late, according to a report from McMillan Analysis Corp. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on "sell" signals, the analysts say.

Chart-minded investors are bullish. The S&P 500 has closed well above 1,228, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 2007-2009 bear market slide, a key technical level.

"When a market surpasses a certain retracement level, then the probability increases of a rise to the next retracement level, which in this case would be a 76.4 percent retracement and that's a ways up at 1,362," said Chris Burba, short-term market technician at Standard & Poor's.

The 1,120 level, the top of a recent trading range, is seen as strong support.

On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 1,240.40 and was up 1.3 percent for the week. The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI ended Friday's session at 11,410.32 and was up just 0.2 percent for the week. The Nasdaq closed on Friday at 2,637.54; for the week, the Nasdaq was up 1.8 percent.

LOOK OUT FOR FED HAWKS

An agreement to extend the Bush-era tax cuts over the next two years has started to seem like less of a done deal. The agreement is expected to be approved by the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, but could face a tougher road to passage in the House.

If the legislation stalls, resulting in higher capital gains and dividend taxes at the start of next year, then U.S. stock prices could fall.

The Federal Reserve's policy-making body, the Federal Open Markets Committee, will convene on Tuesday for its last meeting of the year. The recent clutch of stronger economic data could spark a debate over how far to stretch the central bank's $600 billion stimulus plan, designed to keep interest rate low through bond purchases.

"The hawkish members on the Fed may seize on this cluster of strong numbers and use them to support the argument against" quantitative easing, said Pierre Ellis, senior global economist at Decision Economics in New York.

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-12-13 01:37

28# 何鸿燊

" I used to analyze all these technical indicators to death. No more. I don't care how low the VIX is, it could go lower and stay there for a long time. I believe that institutional and retail investors should continue buying any dip that comes their way. Look at November. Everybody thought Europe was going to collapse. Admittedly, the Irish bailout is not a done deal, and Europe is a mess, but the fact remains that there are powerful interests that want to see this rally continue as long as possible.

Why do I believe that QE 2.0 is not the end of it? Two reasons. First, policy remains reflate and inflate at all cost. The Fed and other central bankers will accommodate the global financial system, providing banks with cheap funds to buy bonds, making an instant profit which they use to buy higher-yielding risks assets all around the world. This will shore up bank balance sheets and hopefully trickle to retail investors who desperately need a wealth effect (but wealth effect from stocks is much weaker than the one from real estate).

The second and more important reason why I believe QE is here to stay is that the US economy is still at risk for experiencing debt deflation. I want all of my readers to carefully read Part 3 of an interview posted on Huffington Post between Michael Hudson the report, and Michael Hudson the economist. Part 3 is available here (and you can read Part 1 of "My Talk With Michael Hudson" here and Part 2 here.)

"

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-12-13 01:44

下周牛牛可以继续木鸡；或者开始趁高出些短期厚利，等下个地铺加仓。
SPX也许冲到1250以上才开始一个温和的回调。

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