China’s manufacturing may expand in October for the first time in four months, snapping the longest contraction since 2009, after a preliminary index of purchasing managers showed a rebound in new orders and output.
The reading of 51.1 for the index released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today was the highest in five months and compares with the final reading of 49.9 for September and August. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
The data signal that the world’s second-largest economy is weathering a credit squeeze among smaller companies and a slowdown in exports to Europe, its biggest market, where leaders are grappling with a deepening debt crisis. China’s growth is “sound” and the government doesn’t need to implement any “major” stimulus measures, Chinese central bank adviser Xia Bin said last week.
The data “confirm our view that there is no risk of a hard landing in China, Qu Hongbin, a Hong Kong-based economist with HSBC, said in the statement. The index’s expansion marks “a steady start to manufacturing activities in the fourth quarter.”
HSBC’s preliminary manufacturing index, known as the Flash PMI, is based on 85 percent to 90 percent of the total responses to its monthly purchasing managers’ survey sent to executives in more than 400 companies. The final reading will be released on Nov. 1.
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The gauge was below 50, the level that separates expansion from contraction, for eight months through March 2009.
China has raised interest rates five times over the past year, curbed lending and limited home purchases to rein in property and consumer prices. The rate of inflation may average 5.5 percent this year, Zhang Yansheng, a National Development and Reform Commission researcher, said last week. That compares with the government’s target of 4 percent and 3.3 percent in 2010.
Government policies to boost spending on water projects and spur construction of public housing offer “big room” for manufacturing to pick up, Wang Min, chairman of Xugong Group Construction Machinery Inc., China’s biggest maker of construction equipment, said last week. Still, demand has cooled since April amid the central bank’s monetary tightening and is “concerned” about Europe’s economic outlook, Wang said.
The preliminary number has matched the final reading twice since HSBC began publishing its Flash PMI series in February. The index fell below 50 in July for the first time in a year.
The official manufacturing index released by the statistics bureau and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing had a reading of 51.2 in September. The gauge hasn’t fallen below 50 since February 2009. |
发表于 2011-10-23 23:18
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