ericc980

ericc980

回复 134# ychen222
I think we'll have a higher low and a new high to make the major top before mid Aug.

dxzhu

Thanks for new update!

ychen222

FED might play a major role in this game. We know that next 2 FED meetings will be 7/30-31 and 9/17- ...
ychen222 发表于 2013-7-21 11:39

Please read this:
“The Federal Reserve’s proposed timetable for tapering its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program is not set in stone, Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday in fairly dovish prepared remarks to a Congressional panel. “I emphasize that, because our asset purchases depend on economic and financial developments, they are by no means on a preset course,” Bernanke said in remarks prepared for delivery to House Financial Services Committee.”

Think about it, if everything were good, why did the hell Ben emphasize "not set"/"no ... present course" at all?
The true story is that FED will try to taper QE3 (in 7/30-31 meeting).  Later the stock market crash will give Ben excuse (in 9/17-18 meeting) to reverse the tapering.

Or say this, my understanding is that Ben said "会哭的孩子有糖吃", not "都有糖吃, 不管是谁".

ychen222

FED might play a major role in this game. We know that next 2 FED meetings will be 7/30-31 and 9/17- ...
ychen222 发表于 2013-7-21 11:39

Thinking about 1420 -> 1640 -> 1860 further, I feel that 1640 is relatively weak currently. It's good to hover around 1640( or even it could be 1650/1660) for a while.
So it's also possible that the crash to 1420 would happen during September. In July/August, SPX would stay at 1640-1660 area.

ychen222

“It could stay in such a small range for more than a month?”
lululun 发表于 2013-7-22 06:32

In order to prepare future 1420 -> 1860/1900, it would be reasonable to hove around 1640-1660 for months in advance. This is the 反向SETUP.
Crash to 1420 in August is also possible. This is the 正向SETUP, which means that after 1420,  the market would stay 1640-1660 for months before moving to 1860/1900.

BTW，如果我对FED的估计（先减QE3，然后恢复QE3或搞新QE）正确，那么金银6月底时候应该还不是大底，等FED减QE3时候金银才出大底，然后FED搞新QE时候金银正式起飞。

ychen222

上周的走法实质上否定了近期迅速跌向1420的可能，已知7月里SPX限于1600-1700，8月里看来继续限于1600-1700。通过5678四个月在1600-1700（6月里有短暂时间跌出1600)盘整，为未来1400涨向1900做中线（正中位置时1650，上下界是1700/1600）。
所以我目前看好的SPX的大走势是，8月继续限于1600-1700，9/10月时候大跌到1420-1400，之后大涨到1900到2014年春，（然后可能从1900大跌一半到950，950发生在2015年）。
促成9/10月跌到1400的事件猜想是国会国债上限之争。大涨到1900需要FED继续QE来点火。（而从1900跌一半到950需要下一任FED主席停QE来配合。）

对我来说，近期需要关注的是SPX是否能突破1700很多，因为在以上猜测里我把1700作为1650中位的上界，1710附近应该就是极限了，若SPX再高就会迫使我重新思考大走势。

关于跌到1420，看图，其实当前的走法可以参考2007和2011年的走法。在2007年春，SPX测过一次1370，2011年的3月，SPX也是先期测一下1250，这相当于今年6月的1560。2007和2011年那2次都是出新高，然后再反测1370/1250，再反弹（2007年甚至这时出新高），但最终还是跌下反弹高度2倍。所以这次若8月下旬时候跌回1560也不意外，9月初再反弹回1680-1700也无不可，但9/10月跌向1420势不可挡，证据就是3/4月SPX盘于1550-1560先期形成中线，6月探测1560，1560/1550正好是1420/1400至1700的中位。

ericc980

ychen222

(I can use my desktop computer at home to input Chinese. But my current company notebook only allows me to input English. So now I have to to switch to English input...)

Last Friday, we saw that the major stock indexes need to synchronize before a major movement. (In Friday's case, SPX needed a new low in order for it to rally to 1700.)  

SPX down to 1420-1400 is a major movement. in http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-242155-1-2.html I said RUT's 1560 was ready to 850 (middle point 955) .
Now let us see NDX and INDU.

NDX's 3091 is ready (actually too much) to 1650. No need for new high.
However, INDU's 15600 does not seem to be enough, if 14500 is the middle point, and 13200 is the target. It's good for INDU to have new high around 15800.
So if playing this rally in next a few days, INDU might be a better candidate.

ericc980

请教：根据大师你对QE和大盘指数的预测，美国的房市会怎么走呢？
未来还会有DIP 可以买吗？

ychen222

During SPX跌到1420/国会国债上限之争,  国债 and Gold should have down pressure.  国债 and Gold could have bottom in September/October, then they would rally following the stocks.  

Although SPX would make new high 1900 in 2014, I doubt  国债 and Gold would be able to make new high.   下一任FED主席停QE would beat down stocks, 国债 and Gold all together.

See the charts, I guess 10y notes/Gold would bottom about 120/1000 during September/October. In 2014 spring rally, I am afraid that they could not to break 130/1600 at all. In near term, 10y notes and Gold do have a little up room till 129/1380.

ychen222

请教：根据大师你对QE和大盘指数的预测，美国的房市会怎么走呢？
未来还会有DIP 可以买吗？
ericc980 发表于 2013-7-28 11:03

"下一任FED主席停QE" + "SPX to 950" + "10y notes under 120" = real-estate nightmare.
However, this will be a long lasting down turn, which will last up to 5 years. The real-estate bottom might happen in 2015-2016 period or later. Like SPX 950 > 2009's 677, this bottom should be higher than 08/09 and 2011 bottoms. For ITB, the bottom might be around 13-15.
BTW, because of new QE from Ben Bernanke's FED late this year, ITB might go up to 30+ in spring 2014 (when SPX reaches 1900).

dxzhu

Thanks LaoDa's new update

ericc980

Thanks.

H_T

very nice writeup,  made sure to read the entire 10 pages