aimei

哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈啊哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈啊哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈啊哈哈

tfmegatron

whatever, 今天让fed这个uncertainty尘埃落定吧。。。

黄老泻

到了等候FOMC的时间，波动平稳，想走的可以走了，MM不留，想进的可以进了，MM欢迎。

aimei

starting watering
egg calm now

tfmegatron

bulls or bears, whaever happens, be strong!

Diver

One of the running themes of economists’ expectations is for another round of quantitative easing that involves the buying of mortgage-backed securities. The thinking is simple: employment numbers will be lifted quickly by more construction worker hirings. However, the need of a Fed boost to the housing industry is also debatable, given the recent rally in housing shares reflective of good news from the housing sector. Housing shares had another good run yesterday after Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) confirmed the thesis that the housing sector is enjoying a rebound after remaining stagnant since 2009. The PHLX housing index rose 3.1%, with KB Home (NYSE:KBH) up 4.3% and Lennar (NYSE:LEN) up 4.4%. PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) was up 6%, also boosted by an upgrade from Williams Financial Group from “hold” to “buy.”

Diver

Despite an afternoon wobble yesterday that looked suspiciously like the result of Apple-inspired trading truancy, equities finished with another day of gains on increased Fed easing hopes. The DJIA rose 10 points, for a 0.1% climb to 13,333. The S&P500, fueled by strength in telecommunication company shares, climbed 0.2% to 1437. The NASDAQ, lifted by technology shares, rose 0.3% to 3114, with activity emboldened by a new Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone launch and by positive comments from Facebook’s CEO. Apple rose another 1.4% and Facebook jumped 7.7% during the session.

The DJIA’s rise was paced by gains in Verizon (NYSE:VZ), up 1.4%, and General Electric (NYSE:GE), 1.4% higher. Verizon’s CFO said the firm may begin buying back shares in 2013, that wireline margins are improving and its customers are buying bigger than expected data packages. General Electric said its is considering the sale of its $2.2 billion stake in Thailand’s Bank of Ayudhya . DuPont (NYSE:DD) headed losing components down 1.6%, followed by Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), off 0.7%.

Among the ten S&P500 industry sectors seven marked increases including: telecommunications (+0.7%), industrials (+0.5%), financials (+0.5%), technology (+0.5%), oil and gas (+0.4%), consumer services (+0.3%), and health care (+0.1%). Losing ground were the following groups: consumer goods (-0.7%), utilities (-0.5%), and basic materials (-0.2%).

Diver

No wonder then that there is much fence-sitting today. Asian markets closed mixed; European bourses are lower; US futures point to modest declines at the open. The euro is trading up 0.1% with the US dollar off 0.03% against a currency basket. Crude is trading 0.2% higher in electronic trade, reflecting not only easing hopes but also pricing in the increased risks of growing Middle East tension, grown more worrisome as Israeli complaints over Administration actions enters the US political sphere. Gold is little changed, off 0.02% at $1733.40. Copper, most reflective of China growth, is also little changed, down 0.01% at $3.69.

Diver

Lowered expectations for Beijing stimulative actions sent the Shanghai Composite down 0.8% today. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.5%, affected by reports that iron ore maker Fortescue Metals is having difficulty making debt payments, highlighting difficulties faced by the nation’s important resource firms due to falling demand, especially from China. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng eased 0.1%. Japan’s Nikkei bucked the region’s downward trend, up 0.4% as the yen’s advance against the dollar, now up 0.2%, takes the currency to levels that have previously provoked central bank intervention.

Diver

Europe’s bourses are lower today, led by a 0.7% drop in France’s CAC, with Germany’s DAX down 0.4% and the UK FTSE 100 off 0.1%. The weakness follows a strong equities rally in European shares since the early August Draghi effect went into play, and shows trades sidelined by today’s key FOMC policy action. Indeed, there was good news this morning after Rome’s first primary auction since the ECB OMT announcement saw borrowing costs the lowest in nearly two years. Yields on Italian 14-year debt fell to 5.3% from 5.9% at the last, similarly dated sale.

Diver

As has been made clear in the market’s rally from early this summer, equity prices have reflected the assumptions of combined central bank easing actions to support slowing global economic growth. China’s intentions seem the most opaque, further clouded by news that its central bank issued 28-day reverse-repurchase contracts for the first time in a decade, undermining hopes for reductions in banks’ reserve requirements, viewed as a longer-term stimulus measure. Furthermore, the official Xinhua News Agency reported today that any massive stimulus would be “detrimental” to China’s long-term growth. Besides worries about the last stimulus’ inflationary impact and concerns over ill-fated projects that saw bridges falling in Beijing and roads buckling in rural areas, the government is also undergoing a leadership change. Premier Wen Jiaboa promised early this week that Beijing had the means and will to boost slowing growth, but he will be replaced in October, perhaps undermining such claims.

Diver

The eurozone sovereign debt crisis has come back from the brink that the Fed faced during its last two-day policy deliberation. ECB President Draghi made good on his promise to do whatever it takes to save the euro, detailing the OMT program to put a lid on peripheral nations’ high borrowing costs; Germany’s constitutional court has opened the door for the E500 billion ESM bailout fund; Dutch elections returned the pro-euro Prime Minister Rutte to power with a centrist government the likely result. The euro, currently trading up 0.2% at 1.2906 against the US dollar suggests a consensus view that the European Union has recovered a great deal of previously lost support from the populace, permitting the kind of fiscal union needed to maintain a diverse cultural base within a single currency union.

Diver

The Fed, therefore, may not feel compelled to make a preemptive policy move to add liquidity to a financial system frozen with fear from eurozone stress. Indeed, liquidity issues do not plague US markets, with corporations and markets awash with cash. It is the problem of confidence among company boards and executives that keeps inventories lean, investments delayed and, most importantly, hirings slow. The Fed, therefore, must not only consider the means to increase employment levels, but also the psychological impact that a major accommodative move would engender, as action itself bodes ill for the economy’s state, as lowered Fed GDP assumptions would likely underscore.

Diver

Even so, the latest polls show Wall Street economists have grown increasingly optimistic that further easing plans will be announced today. A Reuters poll posted yesterday showed 65% of the economists polled anticipate Fed action today, up from 60% in August; according to Bloomberg’s tally, two-thirds of the respondents asserted another round of bond purchasing is likely. The nature of the accommodation is, of course, another matter, ranging from expectations of an extension of forward interest rate guidance to 2015 to an open-ended program of bond purchasing that depends upon the inflow of ongoing data.

Diver

the reading of most indicators went lower now!