[技术分析] ER 轮盘赌

oldhorse

请不要跟，风险大，我贴出来是验证我的系统是否work，有人监督能认真点。
目标：60% accuracy。
目前cmg 和fb对了。

我想飞

回复 139# oldhorse


   马大，  Long term 俺还是看好TSLA. 本季北欧销量有影响，但中国香港慢慢在成长。可能展望会不错。

oldhorse

回复  oldhorse

It all depends on how many TSLA they sold in the quarter. If sold > 8000 ---> BAO ...
我想飞 发表于 2014-7-31 00:08

thanks a lot, makes sense.

我想飞

回复 136# oldhorse

It all depends on how many TSLA they sold in the quarter. If sold > 8000 ---> BAO ZHANG; if sold < 7000 ----> BAO DIE. Otherwise, we may not see big waves. I do not have it. GL

tianfangye

thanks for sharing. I usually buy stocks that I want hold for awhile but no TSLA at this moment.

oldhorse

more confidence on tsla now.
tsla should beat eps,but may miss revenue due to battery shortage which would be resolved next year.
so overall, the price should go up.

oldhorse

ok,last try

long,all tomorrow after close

tsla
data (ramp up too much, price move might not be ideal)
beat (ramp up too much, price move might not be ideal)
arrs (ramp up too much, price move might not be ideal)
spwr

oldhorse

总结一下（er前收盘对第二天收盘）：
FB，71.29，vs 74。98   gain 5.17%
cmg 589.93 vs  659.77 gain  11.84%
deck 85.23 vs 90.。50 gain 6.18%
sbux 80.45 vs 78.74    loss -2.13%

average =+5.265%

second batch
hlf close before er 67.48 after er close 58.35 loss =-13.51%
osk close before er 53.19 after er close 45.84 loss =-13.82%
idti close before er 13.53 after er close 15 gain =10.86%

average = -5.49%

the third batch
ulti close before er 133.83 after er close 143.76 gain =7.42%
exam close before er 32.41 after er close 35.75 gain =10.31%
slca  close before er 60.28 after er close 57.63 loss = -4.39%
hurn close before er 65.91 after er close 62.36 loss = -5.38%
pbi close before er 26.35 after er close 27.53 gain = 4.48%
bwld close before er 167.15 after er close 145.17 loss = -13.15%
average = -0.11%

so far
total average: -0.11%
correct rate: 54%
还有三个，akam 和asgn 已经报告了，等明天数据。
tsla 等后天。
目前结果不太值得，等于白玩，配上手续费。
猜对beat的概率高，85% 只有两个miss了，但是price move不理想。
特别是超过10% 跌幅的，这个最要命。
tsla结束后，收摊。

oldhorse

AKAM 属蓝筹性质很难POP UP， 做后市容易。
tianfangye 发表于 2014-7-30 16:28

    盘后跌很多，不明白。
收摊不赌了，水平不中，只能筛出beat，大约猜出price move， 但是不能算出大跌的股票，一旦发生，其他赌胜的利润毁于一旦，不值得。
明天最后一个被迫赌的，tsla， 有股票不得不赌。

tianfangye

akam, beat both lines,but price is dropping.
eps 0.58 vs est,055
rev 476m vs est 473m

asgn  ...
oldhorse 发表于 2014-7-30 16:19

AKAM 属蓝筹性质很难POP UP， 做后市容易。

oldhorse

bet long
akam
asgn
oldhorse 发表于 2014-7-30 09:14

akam, beat both lines,but price is dropping.
eps 0.58 vs est,055
rev 476m vs est 473m

asgn beat eps,miss revenue
eps 0.56 vs est 0.52
rev: 468m vs est 471m
this one has no after market yet, now know the move.

shi333

akam, follow some

shi333

读读书： 说说赌啥？

回复 124# 读读书

oldhorse

bet long
akam
asgn

fortune1212

马大大！